Daily Papers

How does language inform our downstream thinking? In particular, how do humans make meaning from language -- and how can we leverage a theory of linguistic meaning to build machines that think in more human-like ways? In this paper, we propose rational meaning construction, a computational framework for language-informed thinking that combines neural models of language with probabilistic models for rational inference. We frame linguistic meaning as a context-sensitive mapping from natural language into a probabilistic language of thought (PLoT) -- a general-purpose symbolic substrate for probabilistic, generative world modeling. Our architecture integrates two powerful computational tools that have not previously come together: we model thinking with probabilistic programs, an expressive representation for flexible commonsense reasoning; and we model meaning construction with large language models (LLMs), which support broad-coverage translation from natural language utterances to code expressions in a probabilistic programming language. We illustrate our framework in action through examples covering four core domains from cognitive science: probabilistic reasoning, logical and relational reasoning, visual and physical reasoning, and social reasoning about agents and their plans. In each, we show that LLMs can generate context-sensitive translations that capture pragmatically-appropriate linguistic meanings, while Bayesian inference with the generated programs supports coherent and robust commonsense reasoning. We extend our framework to integrate cognitively-motivated symbolic modules to provide a unified commonsense thinking interface from language. Finally, we explore how language can drive the construction of world models themselves.

Vision-language models (VLMs) embed aligned image-text pairs into a joint space but often rely on deterministic embeddings, assuming a one-to-one correspondence between images and texts. This oversimplifies real-world relationships, which are inherently many-to-many, with multiple captions describing a single image and vice versa. We introduce Probabilistic Language-Image Pre-training (ProLIP), the first probabilistic VLM pre-trained on a billion-scale image-text dataset using only probabilistic objectives, achieving a strong zero-shot capability (e.g., 74.6% ImageNet zero-shot accuracy with ViT-B/16). ProLIP efficiently estimates uncertainty by an "uncertainty token" without extra parameters. We also introduce a novel inclusion loss that enforces distributional inclusion relationships between image-text pairs and between original and masked inputs. Experiments demonstrate that, by leveraging uncertainty estimates, ProLIP benefits downstream tasks and aligns with intuitive notions of uncertainty, e.g., shorter texts being more uncertain and more general inputs including specific ones. Utilizing text uncertainties, we further improve ImageNet accuracy from 74.6% to 75.8% (under a few-shot setting), supporting the practical advantages of our probabilistic approach. The code is available at https://github.com/naver-ai/prolip

Symbolic regression is the task of identifying a mathematical expression that best fits a provided dataset of input and output values. Due to the richness of the space of mathematical expressions, symbolic regression is generally a challenging problem. While conventional approaches based on genetic evolution algorithms have been used for decades, deep learning-based methods are relatively new and an active research area. In this work, we present SymbolicGPT, a novel transformer-based language model for symbolic regression. This model exploits the advantages of probabilistic language models like GPT, including strength in performance and flexibility. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that our model performs strongly compared to competing models with respect to the accuracy, running time, and data efficiency.

The paper copes with the task of automatic assessment of second language proficiency from the language learners' spoken responses to test prompts. The task has significant relevance to the field of computer assisted language learning. The approach presented in the paper relies on two separate modules: (1) an automatic speech recognition system that yields text transcripts of the spoken interactions involved, and (2) a multiple classifier system based on deep learners that ranks the transcripts into proficiency classes. Different deep neural network architectures (both feed-forward and recurrent) are specialized over diverse representations of the texts in terms of: a reference grammar, the outcome of probabilistic language models, several word embeddings, and two bag-of-word models. Combination of the individual classifiers is realized either via a probabilistic pseudo-joint model, or via a neural mixture of experts. Using the data of the third Spoken CALL Shared Task challenge, the highest values to date were obtained in terms of three popular evaluation metrics.

Vision-language models (VLMs), such as CLIP and SigLIP, have found remarkable success in classification, retrieval, and generative tasks. For this, VLMs deterministically map images and text descriptions to a joint latent space in which their similarity is assessed using the cosine similarity. However, a deterministic mapping of inputs fails to capture uncertainties over concepts arising from domain shifts when used in downstream tasks. In this work, we propose post-hoc uncertainty estimation in VLMs that does not require additional training. Our method leverages a Bayesian posterior approximation over the last layers in VLMs and analytically quantifies uncertainties over cosine similarities. We demonstrate its effectiveness for uncertainty quantification and support set selection in active learning. Compared to baselines, we obtain improved and well-calibrated predictive uncertainties, interpretable uncertainty estimates, and sample-efficient active learning. Our results show promise for safety-critical applications of large-scale models.

Maintaining legacy software requires many software and systems engineering hours. Assembly code programs, which demand low-level control over the computer machine state and have no variable names, are particularly difficult for humans to analyze. Existing conventional program translators guarantee correctness, but are hand-engineered for the source and target programming languages in question. Learned transpilation, i.e. automatic translation of code, offers an alternative to manual re-writing and engineering efforts. Automated symbolic program translation approaches guarantee correctness but struggle to scale to longer programs due to the exponentially large search space. Their rigid rule-based systems also limit their expressivity, so they can only reason about a reduced space of programs. Probabilistic neural language models (LMs) produce plausible outputs for every input, but do so at the cost of guaranteed correctness. In this work, we leverage the strengths of LMs and symbolic solvers in a neurosymbolic approach to learned transpilation for assembly code. Assembly code is an appropriate setting for a neurosymbolic approach, since assembly code can be divided into shorter non-branching basic blocks amenable to the use of symbolic methods. Guess & Sketch extracts alignment and confidence information from features of the LM then passes it to a symbolic solver to resolve semantic equivalence of the transpilation input and output. We test Guess & Sketch on three different test sets of assembly transpilation tasks, varying in difficulty, and show that it successfully transpiles 57.6% more examples than GPT-4 and 39.6% more examples than an engineered transpiler. We also share a training and evaluation dataset for this task.

Numerous capability and safety techniques of Large Language Models (LLMs), including RLHF, automated red-teaming, prompt engineering, and infilling, can be cast as sampling from an unnormalized target distribution defined by a given reward or potential function over the full sequence. In this work, we leverage the rich toolkit of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for these probabilistic inference problems. In particular, we use learned twist functions to estimate the expected future value of the potential at each timestep, which enables us to focus inference-time computation on promising partial sequences. We propose a novel contrastive method for learning the twist functions, and establish connections with the rich literature of soft reinforcement learning. As a complementary application of our twisted SMC framework, we present methods for evaluating the accuracy of language model inference techniques using novel bidirectional SMC bounds on the log partition function. These bounds can be used to estimate the KL divergence between the inference and target distributions in both directions. We apply our inference evaluation techniques to show that twisted SMC is effective for sampling undesirable outputs from a pretrained model (a useful component of harmlessness training and automated red-teaming), generating reviews with varied sentiment, and performing infilling tasks.

Semantic control entails steering LM generations towards satisfying subtle non-lexical constraints, e.g., toxicity, sentiment, or politeness, attributes that can be captured by a sequence-level verifier. It can thus be viewed as sampling from the LM distribution conditioned on the target attribute, a computationally intractable problem due to the non-decomposable nature of the verifier. Existing approaches to LM control either only deal with syntactic constraints which cannot capture the aforementioned attributes, or rely on sampling to explore the conditional LM distribution, an ineffective estimator for low-probability events. In this work, we leverage a verifier's gradient information to efficiently reason over all generations that satisfy the target attribute, enabling precise steering of LM generations by reweighing the next-token distribution. Starting from an initial sample, we create a local LM distribution favoring semantically similar sentences. This approximation enables the tractable computation of an expected sentence embedding. We use this expected embedding, informed by the verifier's evaluation at the initial sample, to estimate the probability of satisfying the constraint, which directly informs the update to the next-token distribution. We evaluated the effectiveness of our approach in controlling the toxicity, sentiment, and topic-adherence of LMs yielding generations satisfying the constraint with high probability (>95%) without degrading their quality.

Even after fine-tuning and reinforcement learning, large language models (LLMs) can be difficult, if not impossible, to control reliably with prompts alone. We propose a new inference-time approach to enforcing syntactic and semantic constraints on the outputs of LLMs, called sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) steering. The key idea is to specify language generation tasks as posterior inference problems in a class of discrete probabilistic sequence models, and replace standard decoding with sequential Monte Carlo inference. For a computational cost similar to that of beam search, SMC can steer LLMs to solve diverse tasks, including infilling, generation under syntactic constraints, and prompt intersection. To facilitate experimentation with SMC steering, we present a probabilistic programming library, LLaMPPL (https://github.com/probcomp/hfppl), for concisely specifying new generation tasks as language model probabilistic programs, and automating steering of LLaMA-family Transformers.

Probabilistic models of language understanding are valuable tools for investigating human language use. However, they need to be hand-designed for a particular domain. In contrast, large language models (LLMs) are trained on text that spans a wide array of domains, but they lack the structure and interpretability of probabilistic models. In this paper, we use chain-of-thought prompts to introduce structures from probabilistic models into LLMs. We explore this approach in the case of metaphor understanding. Our chain-of-thought prompts lead language models to infer latent variables and reason about their relationships in order to choose appropriate paraphrases for metaphors. The latent variables and relationships chosen are informed by theories of metaphor understanding from cognitive psychology. We apply these prompts to the two largest versions of GPT-3 and show that they can improve performance in a paraphrase selection task.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are huge artificial neural networks which primarily serve to generate text, but also provide a very sophisticated probabilistic model of language use. Since generating a semantically consistent text requires a form of effective memory, we investigate the memory properties of LLMs and find surprising similarities with key characteristics of human memory. We argue that the human-like memory properties of the Large Language Model do not follow automatically from the LLM architecture but are rather learned from the statistics of the training textual data. These results strongly suggest that the biological features of human memory leave an imprint on the way that we structure our textual narratives.

When faced with novel situations, people are able to marshal relevant considerations from a wide range of background knowledge and put these to use in inferences and predictions. What permits us to draw in globally relevant information and reason over it coherently? Here, we explore the hypothesis that people use a combination of distributed and symbolic representations to construct bespoke mental models tailored to novel situations. We propose a computational implementation of this idea -- a ``Model Synthesis Architecture'' (MSA) -- using language models to implement global relevance-based retrieval and model synthesis and probabilistic programs to implement bespoke, coherent world models. We evaluate our MSA as a model of human judgments on a novel reasoning dataset. The dataset -- built around a `Model Olympics` domain of sports vignettes -- tests models' capacity for human-like, open-ended reasoning by requiring (i) judgments about novel causal structures described in language; (ii) drawing on large bodies of background knowledge; and (iii) doing both in light of observations that introduce arbitrary novel variables. Our MSA approach captures human judgments better than language model-only baselines, under both direct and chain-of-thought generations from the LM that supports model synthesis. These results suggest that MSAs can be implemented in a way that mirrors people's ability to deliver locally coherent reasoning over globally relevant variables, offering a path to understanding and replicating human reasoning in open-ended domains.

Large language models (LLMs) have a substantial capacity for high-level analogical reasoning: reproducing patterns in linear text that occur in their training data (zero-shot evaluation) or in the provided context (few-shot in-context learning). However, recent studies show that even the more advanced LLMs fail in scenarios that require reasoning over multiple objects or facts and making sequences of logical deductions. We propose a two-stage probabilistic inference paradigm, ThinkSum, which reasons over sets of objects or facts in a structured manner. In the first stage (Think - retrieval of associations), a LLM is queried in parallel over a set of phrases extracted from the prompt or an auxiliary model call. In the second stage (Sum - probabilistic inference or reasoning), the results of these queries are aggregated to make the final prediction. We demonstrate the possibilities and advantages of ThinkSum on the BIG-bench suite of LLM evaluation tasks, achieving improvements over the state of the art using GPT-family models on thirteen difficult tasks, often with far smaller model variants. We also compare and contrast ThinkSum with other proposed modifications to direct prompting of LLMs, such as variants of chain-of-thought prompting. Our results suggest that because the probabilistic inference in ThinkSum is performed outside of calls to the LLM, ThinkSum is less sensitive to prompt design, yields more interpretable predictions, and can be flexibly combined with latent variable models to extract structured knowledge from LLMs. Overall, our proposed paradigm represents a promising approach for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic foundation. This paper begins by providing a theoretical justification for the role of perturbations in UQ for LLMs. We then introduce a dual random walk perspective, modeling input-output pairs as two Markov chains with transition probabilities defined by semantic similarity. Building on this, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on an inverse model, which quantifies uncertainty by evaluating the diversity of the input space conditioned on a given output through systematic perturbations. Within this framework, we define a new uncertainty measure, Inv-Entropy. A key strength of our framework is its flexibility: it supports various definitions of uncertainty measures, embeddings, perturbation strategies, and similarity metrics. We also propose GAAP, a perturbation algorithm based on genetic algorithms, which enhances the diversity of sampled inputs. In addition, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Temperature Sensitivity of Uncertainty (TSU), which directly assesses uncertainty without relying on correctness as a proxy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Inv-Entropy outperforms existing semantic UQ methods. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/Uncertainty-Quantification-for-LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated vast capabilities on generative tasks in recent years, yet they struggle with guaranteeing the factual correctness of the generated content. This makes these models unreliable in realistic situations where factually accurate responses are expected. In this paper, we propose FactReasoner, a new factuality assessor that relies on probabilistic reasoning to assess the factuality of a long-form generated response. Specifically, FactReasoner decomposes the response into atomic units, retrieves relevant contexts for them from an external knowledge source, and constructs a joint probability distribution over the atoms and contexts using probabilistic encodings of the logical relationships (entailment, contradiction) between the textual utterances corresponding to the atoms and contexts. FactReasoner then computes the posterior probability of whether atomic units in the response are supported by the retrieved contexts. Our experiments on labeled and unlabeled benchmark datasets demonstrate clearly that FactReasoner improves considerably over state-of-the-art prompt-based approaches in terms of both factual precision and recall.

Prompt optimization offers a practical and broadly applicable alternative to fine-tuning for improving large language model (LLM) performance. However, existing methods often rely on costly output generation, self-critiquing abilities, or human-annotated preferences, which limit their scalability, especially for smaller or non-instruction-tuned models. We introduce PMPO (Probabilistic Metric Prompt Optimization), a unified framework that refines prompts using token-level cross-entropy loss as a direct, lightweight evaluation signal. PMPO identifies low-quality prompt segments by masking and measuring their impact on loss, then rewrites and selects improved variants by minimizing loss over positive and negative examples. Unlike prior methods, it requires no output sampling or human evaluation during optimization, relying only on forward passes and log-likelihoods. PMPO supports both supervised and preference-based tasks through a closely aligned loss-based evaluation strategy. Experiments show that PMPO consistently outperforms prior methods across model sizes and tasks: it achieves the highest average accuracy on BBH, performs strongly on GSM8K and AQUA-RAT, and improves AlpacaEval 2.0 win rates by over 19 points. These results highlight PMPO's effectiveness, efficiency, and broad applicability.

The rise of large language models (LLMs) has significantly advanced various natural language processing (NLP) tasks. However, the resource demands of these models pose substantial challenges. Structured pruning is an effective approach to reducing model size, but it often results in significant accuracy degradation, necessitating parameter updates to adapt. Unfortunately, such fine-tuning requires substantial memory, which limits its applicability. To address these challenges, we introduce quantization into the structured pruning framework to reduce memory consumption during both fine-tuning and inference. However, the combined errors from pruning and quantization increase the difficulty of fine-tuning, requiring a more refined quantization scheme. To this end, we propose QPruner, a novel framework that employs structured pruning to reduce model size, followed by a layer-wise mixed-precision quantization scheme. Quantization precisions are assigned to each layer based on their importance to the target task, and Bayesian optimization is employed to refine precision allocation strategies, ensuring a balance between model accuracy and memory efficiency. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that QPruner significantly outperforms existing methods in memory savings while maintaining or improving model performance.

Large-scale vision-language models (VLMs) like CLIP successfully find correspondences between images and text. Through the standard deterministic mapping process, an image or a text sample is mapped to a single vector in the embedding space. This is problematic: as multiple samples (images or text) can abstract the same concept in the physical world, deterministic embeddings do not reflect the inherent ambiguity in the embedding space. We propose ProbVLM, a probabilistic adapter that estimates probability distributions for the embeddings of pre-trained VLMs via inter/intra-modal alignment in a post-hoc manner without needing large-scale datasets or computing. On four challenging datasets, i.e., COCO, Flickr, CUB, and Oxford-flowers, we estimate the multi-modal embedding uncertainties for two VLMs, i.e., CLIP and BLIP, quantify the calibration of embedding uncertainties in retrieval tasks and show that ProbVLM outperforms other methods. Furthermore, we propose active learning and model selection as two real-world downstream tasks for VLMs and show that the estimated uncertainty aids both tasks. Lastly, we present a novel technique for visualizing the embedding distributions using a large-scale pre-trained latent diffusion model.

Despite recent advances in Large Vision Language Models (LVLMs), these models still suffer from generating hallucinatory responses that do not align with the visual input provided. To mitigate such hallucinations, we introduce Efficient Contrastive Decoding (ECD), a simple method that leverages probabilistic hallucination detection to shift the output distribution towards contextually accurate answers at inference time. By contrasting token probabilities and hallucination scores, ECD subtracts hallucinated concepts from the original distribution, effectively suppressing hallucinations. Notably, our proposed method can be applied to any open-source LVLM and does not require additional LVLM training. We evaluate our method on several benchmark datasets and across different LVLMs. Our experiments show that ECD effectively mitigates hallucinations, outperforming state-of-the-art methods with respect to performance on LVLM benchmarks and computation time.

Language models (LM) are capable of remarkably complex linguistic tasks; however, numerical reasoning is an area in which they frequently struggle. An important but rarely evaluated form of reasoning is understanding probability distributions. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the probabilistic reasoning capabilities of LMs using idealized and real-world statistical distributions. We perform a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art LMs on three tasks: estimating percentiles, drawing samples, and calculating probabilities. We evaluate three ways to provide context to LMs 1) anchoring examples from within a distribution or family of distributions, 2) real-world context, 3) summary statistics on which to base a Normal approximation. Models can make inferences about distributions, and can be further aided by the incorporation of real-world context, example shots and simplified assumptions, even if these assumptions are incorrect or misspecified. To conduct this work, we developed a comprehensive benchmark distribution dataset with associated question-answer pairs that we will release publicly.

The recent surge of generative AI has been fueled by the generative power of diffusion probabilistic models and the scalable capabilities of large language models. Despite their potential, it remains elusive whether diffusion language models can solve general language tasks comparable to their autoregressive counterparts. This paper demonstrates that scaling diffusion models w.r.t. data, sizes, and tasks can effectively make them strong language learners. We build competent diffusion language models at scale by first acquiring knowledge from massive data via masked language modeling pretraining thanks to their intrinsic connections. We then reprogram pretrained masked language models into diffusion language models via diffusive adaptation, wherein task-specific finetuning and instruction finetuning are explored to unlock their versatility in solving general language tasks. Experiments show that scaling diffusion language models consistently improves performance across downstream language tasks. We further discover that instruction finetuning can elicit zero-shot and few-shot in-context learning abilities that help tackle many unseen tasks by following natural language instructions, and show promise in advanced and challenging abilities such as reasoning.

As large language models (LMs) advance, there is an increasing need to control their outputs to align with human values (e.g., detoxification) or desired attributes (e.g., personalization, topic). However, autoregressive models focus on next-token predictions and struggle with global properties that require looking ahead. Existing solutions either tune or post-train LMs for each new attribute - expensive and inflexible - or approximate the Expected Attribute Probability (EAP) of future sequences by sampling or training, which is slow and unreliable for rare attributes. We introduce TRACE (Tractable Probabilistic Reasoning for Adaptable Controllable gEneration), a novel framework that efficiently computes EAP and adapts to new attributes through tractable probabilistic reasoning and lightweight control. TRACE distills a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) from an LM and pairs it with a small classifier to estimate attribute probabilities, enabling exact EAP computation over the HMM's predicted futures. This EAP is then used to reweigh the LM's next-token probabilities for globally compliant continuations. Empirically, TRACE achieves state-of-the-art results in detoxification with only 10% decoding overhead, adapts to 76 low-resource personalized LLMs within seconds, and seamlessly extends to composite attributes.

User profile modeling plays a key role in personalized systems, as it requires building accurate profiles and updating them with new information. In this paper, we present two high-quality open-source user profile datasets: one for profile construction and another for profile updating. These datasets offer a strong basis for evaluating user profile modeling techniques in dynamic settings. We also show a methodology that uses large language models (LLMs) to tackle both profile construction and updating. Our method uses a probabilistic framework to predict user profiles from input text, allowing for precise and context-aware profile generation. Our experiments demonstrate that models like Mistral-7b and Llama2-7b perform strongly in both tasks. LLMs improve the precision and recall of the generated profiles, and high evaluation scores confirm the effectiveness of our approach.

We observe that pre-trained large language models (LLMs) are capable of autoregressively completing complex token sequences -- from arbitrary ones procedurally generated by probabilistic context-free grammars (PCFG), to more rich spatial patterns found in the Abstract Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a general AI benchmark, prompted in the style of ASCII art. Surprisingly, pattern completion proficiency can be partially retained even when the sequences are expressed using tokens randomly sampled from the vocabulary. These results suggest that without any additional training, LLMs can serve as general sequence modelers, driven by in-context learning. In this work, we investigate how these zero-shot capabilities may be applied to problems in robotics -- from extrapolating sequences of numbers that represent states over time to complete simple motions, to least-to-most prompting of reward-conditioned trajectories that can discover and represent closed-loop policies (e.g., a stabilizing controller for CartPole). While difficult to deploy today for real systems due to latency, context size limitations, and compute costs, the approach of using LLMs to drive low-level control may provide an exciting glimpse into how the patterns among words could be transferred to actions.

Instruction tuning of open-source large language models (LLMs) like LLaMA, using direct outputs from more powerful LLMs such as Instruct-GPT and GPT-4, has proven to be a cost-effective way to align model behaviors with human preferences. However, the instruction-tuned model has only seen one response per instruction, lacking the knowledge of potentially better responses. In this paper, we propose finetuning an instruction-tuned LLM using our novel probabilistic ranking and contextual ranking approaches to increase the likelihood of generating better responses. Probabilistic ranking enables the instruction-tuned model to inherit the relative rankings of high-quality and low-quality responses from the teacher LLM. On the other hand, learning with contextual ranking allows the model to refine its own response distribution using the contextual understanding ability of stronger LLMs. Furthermore, we apply probabilistic ranking and contextual ranking sequentially to the instruction-tuned LLM. The resulting model, which we call Tuna, consistently improves the performance on Super Natural Instructions (119 test tasks), LMentry (25 test tasks), Vicuna QA, and can even obtain better results than several strong reinforcement learning baselines. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/microsoft/LMOps.

This paper introduces diffusion protein language model (DPLM), a versatile protein language model that demonstrates strong generative and predictive capabilities for protein sequences. We first pre-train scalable DPLMs from evolutionary-scale protein sequences within a generative self-supervised discrete diffusion probabilistic framework, which generalizes language modeling for proteins in a principled way. After pre-training, DPLM exhibits the ability to generate structurally plausible, novel, and diverse protein sequences for unconditional generation. We further demonstrate the proposed diffusion generative pre-training makes DPLM possess a better understanding of proteins, making it a superior representation learner, which can be fine-tuned for various predictive tasks, comparing favorably to ESM2 (Lin et al., 2022). Moreover, DPLM can be tailored for various needs, which showcases its prowess of conditional generation in several ways: (1) conditioning on partial peptide sequences, e.g., generating scaffolds for functional motifs with high success rate; (2) incorporating other modalities as conditioner, e.g., structure-conditioned generation for inverse folding; and (3) steering sequence generation towards desired properties, e.g., satisfying specified secondary structures, through a plug-and-play classifier guidance. Code is released at https://github.com/bytedance/dplm.

We study the probabilistic modeling performed by Autoregressive Large Language Models (LLMs) through the angle of time directionality, addressing a question first raised in (Shannon, 1951). For large enough models, we empirically find a time asymmetry in their ability to learn natural language: a difference in the average log-perplexity when trying to predict the next token versus when trying to predict the previous one. This difference is at the same time subtle and very consistent across various modalities (language, model size, training time, ...). Theoretically, this is surprising: from an information-theoretic point of view, there should be no such difference. We provide a theoretical framework to explain how such an asymmetry can appear from sparsity and computational complexity considerations, and outline a number of perspectives opened by our results.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) followed by preference optimization (PO) denoted by SFTrightarrowPO has become the standard for improving pretrained large language models (LLMs), with PO demonstrating significant performance gains. However, PO methods rely on either human-labeled preference data or a strong reward model to generate preference data. Can we fine-tune LLMs without preference data or reward models while achieving competitive performance to SFTrightarrowPO? We address this question by introducing Discriminative Fine-Tuning (DFT), a novel approach that eliminates the need for preference data. Unlike SFT, which employs a generative approach and overlooks negative data, DFT adopts a discriminative paradigm that that increases the probability of positive answers while suppressing potentially negative ones, shifting from token prediction to data prediction. Our contributions include: (i) a discriminative probabilistic framework for fine-tuning LLMs by explicitly modeling the discriminative likelihood of an answer among all possible outputs given an input; (ii) efficient algorithms to optimize this discriminative likelihood; and (iii) extensive experiments demonstrating DFT's effectiveness, achieving performance better than SFT and comparable to if not better than SFTrightarrowPO. The code can be found at https://github.com/PenGuln/DFT.

Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical probability levels to WEP. For example, highly likely corresponds to a median chance of 0.90+-0.08 in Fagen-Ulmschneider (2015)'s survey. In this work, we measure the ability of neural language processing models to capture the consensual probability level associated to each WEP. Firstly, we use the UNLI dataset (Chen et al., 2020) which associates premises and hypotheses with their perceived joint probability p, to construct prompts, e.g. "[PREMISE]. [WEP], [HYPOTHESIS]." and assess whether language models can predict whether the WEP consensual probability level is close to p. Secondly, we construct a dataset of WEP-based probabilistic reasoning, to test whether language models can reason with WEP compositions. When prompted "[EVENTA] is likely. [EVENTB] is impossible.", a causal language model should not express that [EVENTA&B] is likely. We show that both tasks are unsolved by off-the-shelf English language models, but that fine-tuning leads to transferable improvement.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) like OpenAI-o1 have shown impressive capabilities in natural language reasoning. However, these models frequently demonstrate inefficiencies or inaccuracies when tackling complex mathematical operations. While integrating computational tools such as Code Interpreters (CIs) offers a promising solution, it introduces a critical challenge: a conflict between the model's internal, probabilistic reasoning and the external, deterministic knowledge provided by the CI, which often leads models to unproductive deliberation. To overcome this, we introduce CoRT (Code-Optimized Reasoning Training), a post-training framework designed to teach LRMs to effectively utilize CIs. We propose Hint-Engineering, a new data synthesis strategy that strategically injects diverse hints at optimal points within reasoning paths. This approach generates high-quality, code-integrated reasoning data specifically tailored to optimize LRM-CI interaction. Using this method, we have synthesized 30 high-quality samples to post-train models ranging from 1.5B to 32B parameters through supervised fine-tuning. CoRT further refines the multi-round interleaving of external CI usage and internal thinking by employing rejection sampling and reinforcement learning. Our experimental evaluations demonstrate CoRT's effectiveness, yielding absolute improvements of 4\% and 8\% on DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B, respectively, across five challenging mathematical reasoning datasets. Moreover, CoRT significantly enhances efficiency, reducing token usage by approximately 30\% for the 32B model and 50\% for the 1.5B model compared to pure natural language reasoning baselines. The models and code are available at: https://github.com/ChengpengLi1003/CoRT.

A common approach for aligning language models to human preferences is to first learn a reward model from preference data, and then use this reward model to update the language model. We study two closely related problems that arise in this approach. First, any monotone transformation of the reward model preserves preference ranking; is there a choice that is ``better'' than others? Second, we often wish to align language models to multiple properties: how should we combine multiple reward models? Using a probabilistic interpretation of the alignment procedure, we identify a natural choice for transformation for (the common case of) rewards learned from Bradley-Terry preference models. This derived transformation has two important properties. First, it emphasizes improving poorly-performing outputs, rather than outputs that already score well. This mitigates both underfitting (where some prompts are not improved) and reward hacking (where the model learns to exploit misspecification of the reward model). Second, it enables principled aggregation of rewards by linking summation to logical conjunction: the sum of transformed rewards corresponds to the probability that the output is ``good'' in all measured properties, in a sense we make precise. Experiments aligning language models to be both helpful and harmless using RLHF show substantial improvements over the baseline (non-transformed) approach.

We often attribute human characteristics to large language models (LLMs) and claim that they "know" certain things. LLMs have an internal probabilistic knowledge that represents information retained during training. How can we assess the veracity of this knowledge? We examine two common methods for probing the veracity of LLMs and discover several assumptions that are flawed. To address these flawed assumptions, we introduce sAwMIL (short for Sparse Aware Multiple-Instance Learning), a probing method that utilizes the internal activations of LLMs to separate statements into true, false, and neither. sAwMIL is based on multiple-instance learning and conformal prediction. We evaluate sAwMIL on 5 validity criteria across 16 open-source LLMs, including both default and chat-based variants, as well as on 3 new datasets. Among the insights we provide are: (1) the veracity signal is often concentrated in the third quarter of an LLM's depth; (2) truth and falsehood signals are not always symmetric; (3) linear probes perform better on chat models than on default models; (4) nonlinear probes may be required to capture veracity signals for some LLMs with reinforcement learning from human feedback or knowledge distillation; and (5) LLMs capture a third type of signal that is distinct from true and false and is neither true nor false. These findings provide a reliable method for verifying what LLMs "know" and how certain they are of their probabilistic internal knowledge.

This work presents a comprehensive evaluation of how quantization affects model bias, with particular attention to its impact on individual demographic subgroups. We focus on weight and activation quantization strategies and examine their effects across a broad range of bias types, including stereotypes, toxicity, sentiment, and fairness. We employ both probabilistic and generated text-based metrics across nine benchmarks and evaluate models varying in architecture family and reasoning ability. Our findings show that quantization has a nuanced impact on bias: while it can reduce model toxicity and does not significantly impact sentiment, it tends to slightly increase stereotypes and unfairness in generative tasks, especially under aggressive compression. These trends are generally consistent across demographic categories and model types, although their magnitude depends on the specific setting. Overall, our results highlight the importance of carefully balancing efficiency and ethical considerations when applying quantization in practice.

We introduce a variational reasoning framework for language models that treats thinking traces as latent variables and optimizes them through variational inference. Starting from the evidence lower bound (ELBO), we extend it to a multi-trace objective for tighter bounds and propose a forward-KL formulation that stabilizes the training of the variational posterior. We further show that rejection sampling finetuning and binary-reward RL, including GRPO, can be interpreted as local forward-KL objectives, where an implicit weighting by model accuracy naturally arises from the derivation and reveals a previously unnoticed bias toward easier questions. We empirically validate our method on the Qwen 2.5 and Qwen 3 model families across a wide range of reasoning tasks. Overall, our work provides a principled probabilistic perspective that unifies variational inference with RL-style methods and yields stable objectives for improving the reasoning ability of language models. Our code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/variational-reasoning.

Vision transformers (ViTs) have emerged as a significant area of focus, particularly for their capacity to be jointly trained with large language models and to serve as robust vision foundation models. Yet, the development of trustworthy explanation methods for ViTs has lagged, particularly in the context of post-hoc interpretations of ViT predictions. Existing sub-image selection approaches, such as feature-attribution and conceptual models, fall short in this regard. This paper proposes five desiderata for explaining ViTs -- faithfulness, stability, sparsity, multi-level structure, and parsimony -- and demonstrates the inadequacy of current methods in meeting these criteria comprehensively. We introduce a variational Bayesian explanation framework, dubbed ProbAbilistic Concept Explainers (PACE), which models the distributions of patch embeddings to provide trustworthy post-hoc conceptual explanations. Our qualitative analysis reveals the distributions of patch-level concepts, elucidating the effectiveness of ViTs by modeling the joint distribution of patch embeddings and ViT's predictions. Moreover, these patch-level explanations bridge the gap between image-level and dataset-level explanations, thus completing the multi-level structure of PACE. Through extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrate that PACE surpasses state-of-the-art methods in terms of the defined desiderata.

Social reasoning - inferring unobservable beliefs and intentions from partial observations of other agents - remains a challenging task for large language models (LLMs). We evaluate the limits of current reasoning language models in the social deduction game Avalon and find that while the largest models demonstrate strong performance, they require extensive test-time inference and degrade sharply when distilled to smaller, real-time-capable variants. To address this, we introduce a hybrid reasoning framework that externalizes belief inference to a structured probabilistic model, while using an LLM for language understanding and interaction. Our approach achieves competitive performance with much larger models in Agent-Agent play and, notably, is the first language agent to defeat human players in a controlled study - achieving a 67% win rate and receiving higher qualitative ratings than both reasoning baselines and human teammates. We release code, models, and a dataset to support future work on social reasoning in LLM agents, which can be found at https://camp-lab-purdue.github.io/bayesian-social-deduction/

The surprisingly likely criterion in the seminal work of Prelec (the Bayesian Truth Serum) guarantees truthfulness in a game-theoretic multi-agent setting, by rewarding rational agents to maximise the expected information gain with their answers w.r.t. their probabilistic beliefs. We investigate the relevance of a similar criterion for responses of LLMs. We hypothesize that if the surprisingly likely criterion works in LLMs, under certain conditions, the responses that maximize the reward under this criterion should be more accurate than the responses that only maximize the posterior probability. Using benchmarks including the TruthfulQA benchmark and using openly available LLMs: GPT-2 and LLaMA-2, we show that the method indeed improves the accuracy significantly (for example, upto 24 percentage points aggregate improvement on TruthfulQA and upto 70 percentage points improvement on individual categories of questions).

We introduce MMaDA, a novel class of multimodal diffusion foundation models designed to achieve superior performance across diverse domains such as textual reasoning, multimodal understanding, and text-to-image generation. The approach is distinguished by three key innovations: (i) MMaDA adopts a unified diffusion architecture with a shared probabilistic formulation and a modality-agnostic design, eliminating the need for modality-specific components. This architecture ensures seamless integration and processing across different data types. (ii) We implement a mixed long chain-of-thought (CoT) fine-tuning strategy that curates a unified CoT format across modalities. By aligning reasoning processes between textual and visual domains, this strategy facilitates cold-start training for the final reinforcement learning (RL) stage, thereby enhancing the model's ability to handle complex tasks from the outset. (iii) We propose UniGRPO, a unified policy-gradient-based RL algorithm specifically tailored for diffusion foundation models. Utilizing diversified reward modeling, UniGRPO unifies post-training across both reasoning and generation tasks, ensuring consistent performance improvements. Experimental results demonstrate that MMaDA-8B exhibits strong generalization capabilities as a unified multimodal foundation model. It surpasses powerful models like LLaMA-3-7B and Qwen2-7B in textual reasoning, outperforms Show-o and SEED-X in multimodal understanding, and excels over SDXL and Janus in text-to-image generation. These achievements highlight MMaDA's effectiveness in bridging the gap between pretraining and post-training within unified diffusion architectures, providing a comprehensive framework for future research and development. We open-source our code and trained models at: https://github.com/Gen-Verse/MMaDA

Plenty of existing work has analyzed the abilities of the transformer architecture by describing its representational capacity with formal models of computation. However, the focus so far has been on analyzing the architecture in terms of language acceptance. We contend that this is an ill-suited problem in the study of language models (LMs), which are definitionally probability distributions over strings. In this paper, we focus on the relationship between transformer LMs and n-gram LMs, a simple and historically relevant class of language models. We show that transformer LMs using the hard or sparse attention mechanisms can exactly represent any n-gram LM, giving us a concrete lower bound on their probabilistic representational capacity. This provides a first step towards understanding the mechanisms that transformer LMs can use to represent probability distributions over strings.

Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as pivotal contributors in contemporary natural language processing and are increasingly being applied across a diverse range of industries. However, these large-scale probabilistic statistical models cannot currently ensure the requisite quality in professional content generation. These models often produce hallucinated text, compromising their practical utility in professional contexts. To assess the authentic reliability of LLMs in text generation, numerous initiatives have developed benchmark evaluations for hallucination phenomena. Nevertheless, these benchmarks frequently utilize constrained generation techniques due to cost and temporal constraints. These techniques encompass the use of directed hallucination induction and strategies that deliberately alter authentic text to produce hallucinations. These approaches are not congruent with the unrestricted text generation demanded by real-world applications. Furthermore, a well-established Chinese-language dataset dedicated to the evaluation of hallucinations in text generation is presently lacking. Consequently, we have developed an Unconstrained Hallucination Generation Evaluation (UHGEval) benchmark, designed to compile outputs produced with minimal restrictions by LLMs. Concurrently, we have established a comprehensive benchmark evaluation framework to aid subsequent researchers in undertaking scalable and reproducible experiments. We have also executed extensive experiments, evaluating prominent Chinese language models and the GPT series models to derive professional performance insights regarding hallucination challenges.

Predictive models often need to work with incomplete information in real-world tasks. Consequently, they must provide reliable probability or confidence estimation, especially in large-scale decision-making and planning tasks. Current large language models (LLMs) are insufficient for accurate estimations, but they can generate relevant factors that may affect the probabilities, produce coarse-grained probabilities when the information is more complete, and help determine which factors are relevant to specific downstream contexts. In this paper, we make use of these capabilities of LLMs to provide a significantly more accurate probabilistic estimation. We propose BIRD, a novel probabilistic inference framework that aligns a Bayesian network with LLM abductions and then estimates more accurate probabilities in a deduction step. We show BIRD provides reliable probability estimations that are 30% better than those provided directly by LLM baselines. These estimates further contribute to better and more trustworthy decision making.

We introduce a protein language model for determining the complete sequence of a peptide based on measurement of a limited set of amino acids. To date, protein sequencing relies on mass spectrometry, with some novel edman degregation based platforms able to sequence non-native peptides. Current protein sequencing techniques face limitations in accurately identifying all amino acids, hindering comprehensive proteome analysis. Our method simulates partial sequencing data by selectively masking amino acids that are experimentally difficult to identify in protein sequences from the UniRef database. This targeted masking mimics real-world sequencing limitations. We then modify and finetune a ProtBert derived transformer-based model, for a new downstream task predicting these masked residues, providing an approximation of the complete sequence. Evaluating on three bacterial Escherichia species, we achieve per-amino-acid accuracy up to 90.5% when only four amino acids ([KCYM]) are known. Structural assessment using AlphaFold and TM-score validates the biological relevance of our predictions. The model also demonstrates potential for evolutionary analysis through cross-species performance. This integration of simulated experimental constraints with computational predictions offers a promising avenue for enhancing protein sequence analysis, potentially accelerating advancements in proteomics and structural biology by providing a probabilistic reconstruction of the complete protein sequence from limited experimental data.

Current query expansion models use pseudo-relevance feedback to improve first-pass retrieval effectiveness; however, this fails when the initial results are not relevant. Instead of building a language model from retrieved results, we propose Generative Relevance Feedback (GRF) that builds probabilistic feedback models from long-form text generated from Large Language Models. We study the effective methods for generating text by varying the zero-shot generation subtasks: queries, entities, facts, news articles, documents, and essays. We evaluate GRF on document retrieval benchmarks covering a diverse set of queries and document collections, and the results show that GRF methods significantly outperform previous PRF methods. Specifically, we improve MAP between 5-19% and NDCG@10 17-24% compared to RM3 expansion, and achieve the best R@1k effectiveness on all datasets compared to state-of-the-art sparse, dense, and expansion models.

Language models (LMs) may lead their users to make suboptimal downstream decisions when they confidently hallucinate. This issue can be mitigated by having the LM verbally convey the probability that its claims are correct, but existing models cannot produce text with calibrated confidence statements. Through the lens of decision-making, we formalize linguistic calibration for long-form generations: an LM is linguistically calibrated if its generations enable its users to make calibrated probabilistic predictions. This definition enables a training framework where a supervised finetuning step bootstraps an LM to emit long-form generations with confidence statements such as "I estimate a 30% chance of..." or "I am certain that...", followed by a reinforcement learning step which rewards generations that enable a user to provide calibrated answers to related questions. We linguistically calibrate Llama 2 7B and find in automated and human evaluations of long-form generations that it is significantly more calibrated than strong finetuned factuality baselines with comparable accuracy. These findings generalize under distribution shift on question-answering and under a significant task shift to person biography generation. Our results demonstrate that long-form generations may be calibrated end-to-end by constructing an objective in the space of the predictions that users make in downstream decision-making.

Hallucinations pose a significant challenge to the reliability of large vision-language models, making their detection essential for ensuring accuracy in critical applications. Current detection methods often rely on computationally intensive models, leading to high latency and resource demands. Their definitive outcomes also fail to account for real-world scenarios where the line between hallucinated and truthful information is unclear. To address these issues, we propose HalLoc, a dataset designed for efficient, probabilistic hallucination detection. It features 150K token-level annotated samples, including hallucination types, across Visual Question Answering (VQA), instruction-following, and image captioning tasks. This dataset facilitates the development of models that detect hallucinations with graded confidence, enabling more informed user interactions. Additionally, we introduce a baseline model trained on HalLoc, offering low-overhead, concurrent hallucination detection during generation. The model can be seamlessly integrated into existing VLMs, improving reliability while preserving efficiency. The prospect of a robust plug-and-play hallucination detection module opens new avenues for enhancing the trustworthiness of vision-language models in real-world applications. The HalLoc dataset and code are publicly available at: https://github.com/dbsltm/cvpr25_halloc.

The advances in Vision-Language models (VLMs) offer exciting opportunities for robotic applications involving image geo-localization, the problem of identifying the geo-coordinates of a place based on visual data only. Recent research works have focused on using a VLM as embeddings extractor for geo-localization, however, the most sophisticated VLMs may only be available as black boxes that are accessible through an API, and come with a number of limitations: there is no access to training data, model features and gradients; retraining is not possible; the number of predictions may be limited by the API; training on model outputs is often prohibited; and queries are open-ended. The utilization of a VLM as a stand-alone, zero-shot geo-localization system using a single text-based prompt is largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, this paper undertakes the first systematic study, to the best of our knowledge, to investigate the potential of some of the state-of-the-art VLMs as stand-alone, zero-shot geo-localization systems in a black-box setting with realistic constraints. We consider three main scenarios for this thorough investigation: a) fixed text-based prompt; b) semantically-equivalent text-based prompts; and c) semantically-equivalent query images. We also take into account the auto-regressive and probabilistic generation process of the VLMs when investigating their utility for geo-localization task by using model consistency as a metric in addition to traditional accuracy. Our work provides new insights in the capabilities of different VLMs for the above-mentioned scenarios.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are distinguished by their massive parameter counts, which typically result in significant redundancy. This work introduces MaskLLM, a learnable pruning method that establishes Semi-structured (or ``N:M'') Sparsity in LLMs, aimed at reducing computational overhead during inference. Instead of developing a new importance criterion, MaskLLM explicitly models N:M patterns as a learnable distribution through Gumbel Softmax sampling. This approach facilitates end-to-end training on large-scale datasets and offers two notable advantages: 1) High-quality Masks - our method effectively scales to large datasets and learns accurate masks; 2) Transferability - the probabilistic modeling of mask distribution enables the transfer learning of sparsity across domains or tasks. We assessed MaskLLM using 2:4 sparsity on various LLMs, including LLaMA-2, Nemotron-4, and GPT-3, with sizes ranging from 843M to 15B parameters, and our empirical results show substantial improvements over state-of-the-art methods. For instance, leading approaches achieve a perplexity (PPL) of 10 or greater on Wikitext compared to the dense model's 5.12 PPL, but MaskLLM achieves a significantly lower 6.72 PPL solely by learning the masks with frozen weights. Furthermore, MaskLLM's learnable nature allows customized masks for lossless application of 2:4 sparsity to downstream tasks or domains. Code is available at https://github.com/NVlabs/MaskLLM.

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a widely used framework for training compact, task-specific models by leveraging the knowledge of teacher models. However, its application to active learning (AL), which aims to minimize annotation costs through iterative sample selection, remains underexplored. This gap stems from the fact that KD typically assumes access to sufficient labeled data, whereas AL operates in data-scarce scenarios where task-specific teacher models are often unavailable. In this paper, we introduce ActiveKD, a framework that integrates AL with KD by leveraging the zero- and few-shot capabilities of large vision-language models (VLMs). A key aspect of ActiveKD is the structured prediction bias of VLMs -- i.e., their predictions form clusters in the probability space. We regard this structure as an inductive bias of the teacher model, capturing generalizable output patterns beneficial to student learning. To exploit this bias, we propose Probabilistic CoreSet (PCoreSet), a selection strategy that maximizes coverage in the probability space rather than the feature space. PCoreSet strategically selects categorically diverse unlabeled samples, facilitating more efficient transfer of teacher knowledge under limited annotation budgets. Evaluations on 11 datasets show that PCoreSet consistently outperforms existing selection methods within the ActiveKD framework, advancing research at the intersection of AL and KD.

Large language models (LLMs) are widely used for factual tasks such as "What treats asthma?" or "What is the capital of Latvia?". However, it remains unclear how stably LLMs encode distinctions between true, false, and neither-true-nor-false content in their internal probabilistic representations. We introduce representational stability as the robustness of an LLM's veracity representations to perturbations in the operational definition of truth. We assess representational stability by (i) training a linear probe on an LLM's activations to separate true from not-true statements and (ii) measuring how its learned decision boundary shifts under controlled label changes. Using activations from sixteen open-source models and three factual domains, we compare two types of neither statements. The first are fact-like assertions about entities we believe to be absent from any training data. We call these unfamiliar neither statements. The second are nonfactual claims drawn from well-known fictional contexts. We call these familiar neither statements. The unfamiliar statements induce the largest boundary shifts, producing up to 40% flipped truth judgements in fragile domains (such as word definitions), while familiar fictional statements remain more coherently clustered and yield smaller changes (leq 8.2%). These results suggest that representational stability stems more from epistemic familiarity than from linguistic form. More broadly, our approach provides a diagnostic for auditing and training LLMs to preserve coherent truth assignments under semantic uncertainty, rather than optimizing for output accuracy alone.

Recent Large-Language Models (LLMs) pruning methods typically operate at the post-training phase without the expensive weight finetuning, however, their pruning criteria often rely on heuristically hand-crafted metrics, potentially leading to suboptimal performance. We instead propose a novel optimization-based structural pruning that learns the pruning masks in a probabilistic space directly by optimizing the loss of the pruned model. To preserve efficiency, our method eliminates the back-propagation through the LLM per se during optimization, requiring only the forward pass of the LLM. We achieve this by learning an underlying Bernoulli distribution to sample binary pruning masks, where we decouple the Bernoulli parameters from LLM loss, facilitating efficient optimization via policy gradient estimator without back-propagation. Thus, our method can 1) support global and heterogeneous pruning (i.e., automatically determine different redundancy for different layers), and 2) optionally initialize with a metric-based method (for our Bernoulli distributions). Extensive experiments conducted on LLaMA, LLaMA-2, LLaMA-3, Vicuna, and Mistral models using the C4 and WikiText2 datasets demonstrate the promising performance of our method in efficiency and effectiveness. Code is available at https://github.com/ethanygao/backprop-free_LLM_pruning.

Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) have achieved significant progress in combining visual comprehension with language generation. Despite this success, the training data of LVLMs still suffers from Long-Tail (LT) problems, where the data distribution is highly imbalanced. Previous works have mainly focused on traditional VLM architectures, i.e., CLIP or ViT, and specific tasks such as recognition and classification. Nevertheless, the exploration of LVLM (e.g. LLaVA) and more general tasks (e.g. Visual Question Answering and Visual Reasoning) remains under-explored. In this paper, we first conduct an in-depth analysis of the LT issues in LVLMs and identify two core causes: the overrepresentation of head concepts and the underrepresentation of tail concepts. Based on the above observation, we propose an Adaptive Data Refinement Framework (ADR), which consists of two stages: Data Rebalancing (DR) and Data Synthesis (DS). In the DR stage, we adaptively rebalance the redundant data based on entity distributions, while in the DS stage, we leverage Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) and scarce images to supplement underrepresented portions. Through comprehensive evaluations across eleven benchmarks, our proposed ADR effectively mitigates the long-tail problem in the training data, improving the average performance of LLaVA 1.5 relatively by 4.36%, without increasing the training data volume.

Recent studies of the applications of conversational AI tools, such as chatbots powered by large language models, to complex real-world knowledge work have shown limitations related to reasoning and multi-step problem solving. Specifically, while existing chatbots simulate shallow reasoning and understanding they are prone to errors as problem complexity increases. The failure of these systems to address complex knowledge work is due to the fact that they do not perform any actual cognition. In this position paper, we present Cognitive AI, a higher-level framework for implementing programmatically defined neuro-symbolic cognition above and outside of large language models. Specifically, we propose a dual-layer functional architecture for Cognitive AI that serves as a roadmap for AI systems that can perform complex multi-step knowledge work. We propose that Cognitive AI is a necessary precursor for the evolution of higher forms of AI, such as AGI, and specifically claim that AGI cannot be achieved by probabilistic approaches on their own. We conclude with a discussion of the implications for large language models, adoption cycles in AI, and commercial Cognitive AI development.

We introduce the Diffusion Chain of Lateral Thought (DCoLT), a reasoning framework for diffusion language models. DCoLT treats each intermediate step in the reverse diffusion process as a latent "thinking" action and optimizes the entire reasoning trajectory to maximize the reward on the correctness of the final answer with outcome-based Reinforcement Learning (RL). Unlike traditional Chain-of-Thought (CoT) methods that follow a causal, linear thinking process, DCoLT allows bidirectional, non-linear reasoning with no strict rule on grammatical correctness amid its intermediate steps of thought. We implement DCoLT on two representative Diffusion Language Models (DLMs). First, we choose SEDD as a representative continuous-time discrete diffusion model, where its concrete score derives a probabilistic policy to maximize the RL reward over the entire sequence of intermediate diffusion steps. We further consider the discrete-time masked diffusion language model -- LLaDA, and find that the order to predict and unmask tokens plays an essential role to optimize its RL action resulting from the ranking-based Unmasking Policy Module (UPM) defined by the Plackett-Luce model. Experiments on both math and code generation tasks show that using only public data and 16 H800 GPUs, DCoLT-reinforced DLMs outperform other DLMs trained by SFT or RL or even both. Notably, DCoLT-reinforced LLaDA boosts its reasoning accuracy by +9.8%, +5.7%, +11.4%, +19.5% on GSM8K, MATH, MBPP, and HumanEval.

Large language models (LLMs) are capable of answering knowledge-intensive complex questions with chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning. However, they tend to generate factually incorrect reasoning steps when the required knowledge is not available or up-to-date in models' parameters. Recent works turn to retrieving external knowledge to augment CoT reasoning. Despite being promising, these chain-based methods suffer from: 1) Negative retrieval. Unnecessary or incorrect retrieval may mislead the reasoning; 2) Limited sight. Lacking the ability to look backward or forward, a local error in one step will propagate along the chain. In this paper, we propose a novel approach: Probabilistic Tree-of-thought Reasoning (ProbTree). First, LLMs translate a complex question into a query tree, in which each non-root node denotes a sub-question of its parent node. Then, probabilistic reasoning is conducted over the tree, by solving questions from leaf to root considering the confidence of both question decomposing and answering. During reasoning, for leaf nodes, LLMs choose a more confident answer from Closed-book QA that employs parametric knowledge and Open-book QA that employs retrieved external knowledge, thus eliminating the negative retrieval problem. For non-leaf nodes, with the hierarchical structure, LLMs have broader sights and are able to globally reason with the information from child nodes, thus recovering from local errors. The experiments on three Complex QA datasets under the open-domain setting show that our approach outperforms SOTA methods significantly, demonstrating the effect of probabilistic tree-of-thought reasoning.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code and further information is available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

Large language models (LLMs) are susceptible to memorizing training data, raising concerns due to the potential extraction of sensitive information. Current methods to measure memorization rates of LLMs, primarily discoverable extraction (Carlini et al., 2022), rely on single-sequence greedy sampling, potentially underestimating the true extent of memorization. This paper introduces a probabilistic relaxation of discoverable extraction that quantifies the probability of extracting a target sequence within a set of generated samples, considering various sampling schemes and multiple attempts. This approach addresses the limitations of reporting memorization rates through discoverable extraction by accounting for the probabilistic nature of LLMs and user interaction patterns. Our experiments demonstrate that this probabilistic measure can reveal cases of higher memorization rates compared to rates found through discoverable extraction. We further investigate the impact of different sampling schemes on extractability, providing a more comprehensive and realistic assessment of LLM memorization and its associated risks. Our contributions include a new probabilistic memorization definition, empirical evidence of its effectiveness, and a thorough evaluation across different models, sizes, sampling schemes, and training data repetitions.

Neural language models are probabilistic models of human text. They are predominantly trained using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), which is equivalent to minimizing the forward cross-entropy between the empirical data distribution and the model distribution. However, various degeneration phenomena are still widely observed when decoding from the distributions learned by such models. We establish that the forward cross-entropy is suboptimal as a distance metric for aligning human and model distribution due to its (1) recall-prioritization (2) negative diversity ignorance and (3) train-test mismatch. In this paper, we propose Earth Mover Distance Optimization (EMO) for auto-regressive language modeling. EMO capitalizes on the inherent properties of earth mover distance to address the aforementioned challenges. Due to the high complexity of direct computation, we further introduce a feasible upper bound for EMO to ease end-to-end training. Upon extensive evaluation of language models trained using EMO and MLE. We find that EMO demonstrates a consistently better language modeling performance than MLE across domains. Moreover, EMO demonstrates noteworthy enhancements in downstream performance with minimal fine-tuning on merely 25,000 sentences. This highlights the tremendous potential of EMO as a lightweight calibration method for enhancing large-scale pre-trained language models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have transformed text generation through inherently probabilistic context-aware mechanisms, mimicking human natural language. In this paper, we systematically investigate the performance of various LLMs when generating random numbers, considering diverse configurations such as different model architectures, numerical ranges, temperature, and prompt languages. Our results reveal that, despite their stochastic transformers-based architecture, these models often exhibit deterministic responses when prompted for random numerical outputs. In particular, we find significant differences when changing the model, as well as the prompt language, attributing this phenomenon to biases deeply embedded within the training data. Models such as DeepSeek-R1 can shed some light on the internal reasoning process of LLMs, despite arriving to similar results. These biases induce predictable patterns that undermine genuine randomness, as LLMs are nothing but reproducing our own human cognitive biases.

Human cognition excels at transcending sensory input and forming latent representations that structure our understanding of the world. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) can produce chain-of-thought reasoning, they lack a principled framework to capture latent structures and model uncertainty, especially in compositional reasoning tasks. We propose Verbalized Probabilistic Graphical Modeling (vPGM), a Bayesian prompting framework that guides LLMs to simulate key principles of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) in natural language. Unlike many traditional probabilistic methods requiring substantial domain expertise or specialized training, vPGM bypasses expert-driven model design, making it well-suited for scenarios with limited assumptions or scarce data. We evaluated our model on several compositional reasoning tasks, both close-ended and open-ended. Our results indicate that the model effectively enhances confidence calibration and text generation quality.

Transformer-based language models rely on positional encoding (PE) to handle token order and support context length extrapolation. However, existing PE methods lack theoretical clarity and rely on limited evaluation metrics to substantiate their extrapolation claims. We propose the Bayesian Attention Mechanism (BAM), a theoretical framework that formulates positional encoding as a prior within a probabilistic model. BAM unifies existing methods (e.g., NoPE and ALiBi) and motivates a new Generalized Gaussian positional prior that substantially improves long-context generalization. Empirically, BAM enables accurate information retrieval at 500times the training context length, outperforming previous state-of-the-art context length generalization in long context retrieval accuracy while maintaining comparable perplexity and introducing minimal additional parameters.

In this paper, we evaluate the capability of transformer-based language models in making inferences over uncertain text that includes uncertain rules of reasoning. We cover both Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) and generative Large Language Models (LLMs). Our evaluation results show that both generations of language models struggle with reasoning over uncertain text. We propose a novel end-to-end fine-tuning approach, Probabilistic Constraint Training (PCT), that utilizes probabilistic logical rules as constraints in the fine-tuning phase without relying on these rules in the inference stage. To assess the effectiveness of PCT, we utilize the related corpora and, additionally, create a new and more challenging benchmark that, unlike the previous ones, uses instance-specific rules. Our study demonstrates that PCT improves the transformer-based language model's intrinsic reasoning and makes their probabilistic logical reasoning process more explicit and explainable. Furthermore, PCT equips these models to effectively handle novel situations, including higher reasoning depth, new domains, and complex probabilistic structures.

Masked language model and autoregressive language model are two types of language models. While pretrained masked language models such as BERT overwhelm the line of natural language understanding (NLU) tasks, autoregressive language models such as GPT are especially capable in natural language generation (NLG). In this paper, we propose a probabilistic masking scheme for the masked language model, which we call probabilistically masked language model (PMLM). We implement a specific PMLM with a uniform prior distribution on the masking ratio named u-PMLM. We prove that u-PMLM is equivalent to an autoregressive permutated language model. One main advantage of the model is that it supports text generation in arbitrary order with surprisingly good quality, which could potentially enable new applications over traditional unidirectional generation. Besides, the pretrained u-PMLM also outperforms BERT on a set of downstream NLU tasks.

Unlearning in large language models (LLMs) is critical for regulatory compliance and for building ethical generative AI systems that avoid producing private, toxic, illegal, or copyrighted content. Despite rapid progress, in this work we show that almost all existing unlearning methods fail to achieve true forgetting in practice. Specifically, while evaluations of these `unlearned' models under deterministic (greedy) decoding often suggest successful knowledge removal using standard benchmarks (as has been done in the literature), we show that sensitive information reliably resurfaces when models are sampled with standard probabilistic decoding. To rigorously capture this vulnerability, we introduce leak@k, a new meta-evaluation metric that quantifies the likelihood of forgotten knowledge reappearing when generating k samples from the model under realistic decoding strategies. Using three widely adopted benchmarks, TOFU, MUSE, and WMDP, we conduct the first large-scale, systematic study of unlearning reliability using our newly defined leak@k metric. Our findings demonstrate that knowledge leakage persists across methods and tasks, underscoring that current state-of-the-art unlearning techniques provide only limited forgetting and highlighting the urgent need for more robust approaches to LLM unlearning.

Best-of-n sampling improves the accuracy of large language models (LLMs) and large reasoning models (LRMs) by generating multiple candidate solutions and selecting the one with the highest reward. The key challenge for reasoning tasks is designing a scoring function that can identify correct reasoning chains without access to ground-truth answers. We propose Probabilistic Confidence Selection And Ranking (PiCSAR): a simple, training-free method that scores each candidate generation using the joint log-likelihood of the reasoning and final answer. The joint log-likelihood of the reasoning and final answer naturally decomposes into reasoning confidence and answer confidence. PiCSAR achieves substantial gains across diverse benchmarks (+10.18 on MATH500, +9.81 on AIME2025), outperforming baselines with at least 2x fewer samples in 16 out of 20 comparisons. Our analysis reveals that correct reasoning chains exhibit significantly higher reasoning and answer confidence, justifying the effectiveness of PiCSAR.

Recent advancements in multi-modal large language models have propelled the development of joint probabilistic models capable of both image understanding and generation. However, we have identified that recent methods inevitably suffer from loss of image information during understanding task, due to either image discretization or diffusion denoising steps. To address this issue, we propose a novel Multi-Modal Auto-Regressive (MMAR) probabilistic modeling framework. Unlike discretization line of method, MMAR takes in continuous-valued image tokens to avoid information loss. Differing from diffusion-based approaches, we disentangle the diffusion process from auto-regressive backbone model by employing a light-weight diffusion head on top each auto-regressed image patch embedding. In this way, when the model transits from image generation to understanding through text generation, the backbone model's hidden representation of the image is not limited to the last denoising step. To successfully train our method, we also propose a theoretically proven technique that addresses the numerical stability issue and a training strategy that balances the generation and understanding task goals. Through extensive evaluations on 18 image understanding benchmarks, MMAR demonstrates much more superior performance than other joint multi-modal models, matching the method that employs pretrained CLIP vision encoder, meanwhile being able to generate high quality images at the same time. We also showed that our method is scalable with larger data and model size.

Contrastive audio-language pretraining yields powerful joint representations, yet a persistent audio-text modality gap limits the benefits of coupling multimodal encoders with large language models (LLMs). We present Diffusion-Link, a diffusion-based modality-bridging module that generatively maps audio embeddings into the text-embedding distribution. The module is trained at the output embedding from the frozen multimodal encoder and implemented as a lightweight network with three residual MLP blocks. To assess the effect of Diffusion-Link on multimodal encoder-LLM coupling, we evaluate on Automatic Audio Captioning (AAC); to our knowledge, this is the first application of diffusion-based modality bridging to AAC. We report two results. (1) Modality-gap analysis: on similarity and geometric criteria, Diffusion-Link reduces the modality gap the most among prior diffusion-based methods and shows a collective migration of audio embeddings toward the text distribution. (2) Downstream AAC: attaching Diffusion-Link to the same multimodal LLM baseline achieves state-of-the-art on AudioCaps in both zero-shot and fully supervised captioning without external knowledge, with relative gains up to 52.5% and 7.5%, respectively. These findings show that closing the modality gap is pivotal for effective coupling between multimodal encoders and LLMs, and diffusion-based modality bridging offers a promising direction beyond knowledge-retrieval-centric designs. Code will be released upon acceptance https://github.com/DevKiHyun/Diffusion-Link

Large Language Models (LLMs) have marked a significant advancement in the field of natural language processing, demonstrating exceptional capabilities in reasoning, tool usage, and memory. As their applications extend into multi-agent environments, a need has arisen for a comprehensive evaluation framework that captures their abilities in reasoning, planning, collaboration, and more. This work introduces a novel benchmarking framework specifically tailored to assess LLMs within multi-agent settings, providing quantitative metrics to evaluate their judgment, reasoning, deception, self-awareness, cooperation, coordination, and rationality. We utilize games such as Chameleon and Undercover, alongside game theory scenarios like Cost Sharing, Multi-player Prisoner's Dilemma, and Public Good, to create diverse testing environments. Our framework is fortified with the Probabilistic Graphical Modeling (PGM) method, enhancing the LLMs' capabilities in navigating complex social and cognitive dimensions. The benchmark evaluates seven multi-agent systems powered by different LLMs, quantitatively highlighting a significant capability gap over threefold between the strongest, GPT-4, and the weakest, Llama-2-70B. It also confirms that our PGM enhancement boosts the inherent abilities of all selected models by 50% on average. Our codes are released here https://github.com/cathyxl/MAgIC.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Recently, deep learning-based language models have significantly enhanced text-to-SQL tasks, with promising applications in retrieving patient records within the medical domain. One notable challenge in such applications is discerning unanswerable queries. Through fine-tuning model, we demonstrate the feasibility of converting medical record inquiries into SQL queries. Additionally, we introduce an entropy-based method to identify and filter out unanswerable results. We further enhance result quality by filtering low-confidence SQL through log probability-based distribution, while grammatical and schema errors are mitigated by executing queries on the actual database. We experimentally verified that our method can filter unanswerable questions, which can be widely utilized even when the parameters of the model are not accessible, and that it can be effectively utilized in practice.

Existing preference optimization methods are mainly designed for directly learning from human feedback with the assumption that paired examples (preferred vs. dis-preferred) are available. In contrast, we propose a method that can leverage unpaired preferred or dis-preferred examples, and works even when only one type of feedback (positive or negative) is available. This flexibility allows us to apply it in scenarios with varying forms of feedback and models, including training generative language models based on human feedback as well as training policies for sequential decision-making problems, where learned (value) functions are available. Our approach builds upon the probabilistic framework introduced in (Dayan and Hinton, 1997), which proposes to use expectation-maximization (EM) to directly optimize the probability of preferred outcomes (as opposed to classic expected reward maximization). To obtain a practical algorithm, we identify and address a key limitation in current EM-based methods: when applied to preference optimization, they solely maximize the likelihood of preferred examples, while neglecting dis-preferred samples. We show how one can extend EM algorithms to explicitly incorporate dis-preferred outcomes, leading to a novel, theoretically grounded, preference optimization algorithm that offers an intuitive and versatile way to learn from both positive and negative feedback.

In this paper, we give an in-depth analysis on the mathematical problem formulations and the probabilistic optimization explorations for some of the key components in Transformer model [33] in the field of generative AI. We explore and discuss some potential further enhancement for current state of the art methods for some key underlying technologies of generative AI models from algorithmic and probabilistic optimization perspective. In particular, we present an optimal solution for sub-word encoding (SWE) based on similar initial settings as that of byte-pair encoding (BPE) algorithm in [9] with similar objectives as that of WordPiece approach in [28, 31] to maximize the likelihood of the training data. We also present cross entropy optimization method to optimize hyperparameters for word2vec model [17]. In addition, we propose a factored combination of rotary positional encoding (RoPE) [32] and attention with linear biases (ALiBi) [23] with a harmonic series. We also present a probabilistic FlashAttention [6, 7] (PrFlashAttention) method with a probability distribution over block distances in the matrix to decide which block is likely to participate in a given round of attention computation while maintaining the lower triangle shape of the tensor for autoregressive language models by re-shaping the tensors. Finally, we present staircase adaptive quantization (SAQ) of key-value (KV) cache for multi-query attention (MQA) based on the framework presented in [16] to have gradual quantization degradation while achieving reasonable model quality and cost savings.

Neural sentence embedding models for dense retrieval typically rely on binary relevance labels, treating query-document pairs as either relevant or irrelevant. However, real-world relevance often exists on a continuum, and recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have made it feasible to scale the generation of fine-grained graded relevance labels. In this work, we propose BiXSE, a simple and effective pointwise training method that optimizes binary cross-entropy (BCE) over LLM-generated graded relevance scores. BiXSE interprets these scores as probabilistic targets, enabling granular supervision from a single labeled query-document pair per query. Unlike pairwise or listwise losses that require multiple annotated comparisons per query, BiXSE achieves strong performance with reduced annotation and compute costs by leveraging in-batch negatives. Extensive experiments across sentence embedding (MMTEB) and retrieval benchmarks (BEIR, TREC-DL) show that BiXSE consistently outperforms softmax-based contrastive learning (InfoNCE), and matches or exceeds strong pairwise ranking baselines when trained on LLM-supervised data. BiXSE offers a robust, scalable alternative for training dense retrieval models as graded relevance supervision becomes increasingly accessible.

Clinical dialogue represents a complex duality requiring both the empathetic fluency of natural conversation and the rigorous precision of evidence-based medicine. While Large Language Models possess unprecedented linguistic capabilities, their architectural reliance on reactive and stateless processing often favors probabilistic plausibility over factual veracity. This structural limitation has catalyzed a paradigm shift in medical AI from generative text prediction to agentic autonomy, where the model functions as a central reasoning engine capable of deliberate planning and persistent memory. Moving beyond existing reviews that primarily catalog downstream applications, this survey provides a first-principles analysis of the cognitive architecture underpinning this shift. We introduce a novel taxonomy structured along the orthogonal axes of knowledge source and agency objective to delineate the provenance of clinical knowledge against the system's operational scope. This framework facilitates a systematic analysis of the intrinsic trade-offs between creativity and reliability by categorizing methods into four archetypes: Latent Space Clinicians, Emergent Planners, Grounded Synthesizers, and Verifiable Workflow Automators. For each paradigm, we deconstruct the technical realization across the entire cognitive pipeline, encompassing strategic planning, memory management, action execution, collaboration, and evolution to reveal how distinct architectural choices balance the tension between autonomy and safety.

We present a probabilistic language model for time-stamped text data which tracks the semantic evolution of individual words over time. The model represents words and contexts by latent trajectories in an embedding space. At each moment in time, the embedding vectors are inferred from a probabilistic version of word2vec [Mikolov et al., 2013]. These embedding vectors are connected in time through a latent diffusion process. We describe two scalable variational inference algorithms--skip-gram smoothing and skip-gram filtering--that allow us to train the model jointly over all times; thus learning on all data while simultaneously allowing word and context vectors to drift. Experimental results on three different corpora demonstrate that our dynamic model infers word embedding trajectories that are more interpretable and lead to higher predictive likelihoods than competing methods that are based on static models trained separately on time slices.

Today's probabilistic language generators fall short when it comes to producing coherent and fluent text despite the fact that the underlying models perform well under standard metrics, e.g., perplexity. This discrepancy has puzzled the language generation community for the last few years. In this work, we posit that the abstraction of natural language generation as a discrete stochastic process--which allows for an information-theoretic analysis--can provide new insights into the behavior of probabilistic language generators, e.g., why high-probability texts can be dull or repetitive. Humans use language as a means of communicating information, aiming to do so in a simultaneously efficient and error-minimizing manner; in fact, psycholinguistics research suggests humans choose each word in a string with this subconscious goal in mind. We formally define the set of strings that meet this criterion: those for which each word has an information content close to the expected information content, i.e., the conditional entropy of our model. We then propose a simple and efficient procedure for enforcing this criterion when generating from probabilistic models, which we call locally typical sampling. Automatic and human evaluations show that, in comparison to nucleus and top-k sampling, locally typical sampling offers competitive performance (in both abstractive summarization and story generation) in terms of quality while consistently reducing degenerate repetitions.

Aligning large language models with human objectives is paramount, yet common approaches including RLHF suffer from unstable and resource-intensive training. In response to this challenge, we introduce ARGS, Alignment as Reward-Guided Search, a novel framework that integrates alignment into the decoding process, eliminating the need for expensive RL training. By adjusting the model's probabilistic predictions using a reward signal, ARGS generates texts with semantic diversity while being aligned with human preferences, offering a promising and flexible solution for aligning language models. Notably, ARGS demonstrates consistent enhancements in average reward compared to baselines across diverse alignment tasks and various model dimensions. For example, under the same greedy-based decoding strategy, our method improves the average reward by 19.56% relative to the baseline and secures a preference or tie score of 64.33% in GPT-4 evaluation. We believe that our framework, emphasizing decoding-time alignment, paves the way for more responsive language models in the future. Code is publicly available at: https://github.com/deeplearning-wisc/args.

We present Generative Logic (GL), a deterministic architecture that begins from user-supplied axiomatic definitions -- written in a minimalist Mathematical Programming Language (MPL) -- and systematically explores their deductive neighborhood. Definitions are compiled into a distributed grid of simple Logic Blocks (LBs) that exchange messages; any time several expressions unify under an inference rule, a new fact is emitted with full provenance to its sources, yielding replayable, auditable proof graphs. A prototype software implementation instantiates the workflow on first-order Peano arithmetic. Starting only from the Peano axioms, GL enumerates candidate implications, applies normalization and type filters, and automatically reconstructs machine-checkable proofs of foundational arithmetic laws including associativity and commutativity of addition, associativity and commutativity of multiplication, and distributivity. Generated proofs export to navigable HTML so that every inference step can be inspected independently. We outline a hardware-software co-design path toward massively parallel realizations and describe prospective integration with probabilistic models (e.g., Large Language Models (LLMs)) for autoformalization and conjecture seeding. The Python and MPL code to reproduce the Peano experiments, along with the full HTML proof graphs, are available in the project's GitHub repository at https://github.com/Generative-Logic/GL/tree/35a111ea9ba53afe051703d6050be0c3923e9724 and are permanently archived at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16408441. We invite community feedback and collaboration.

The word embedding space in neural models is skewed, and correcting this can improve task performance. We point out that most approaches for modeling, correcting, and measuring the symmetry of an embedding space implicitly assume that the word frequencies are uniform; in reality, word frequencies follow a highly non-uniform distribution, known as Zipf's law. Surprisingly, simply performing PCA whitening weighted by the empirical word frequency that follows Zipf's law significantly improves task performance, surpassing established baselines. From a theoretical perspective, both our approach and existing methods can be clearly categorized: word representations are distributed according to an exponential family with either uniform or Zipfian base measures. By adopting the latter approach, we can naturally emphasize informative low-frequency words in terms of their vector norm, which becomes evident from the information-geometric perspective, and in terms of the loss functions for imbalanced classification. Additionally, our theory corroborates that popular natural language processing methods, such as skip-gram negative sampling, WhiteningBERT, and headless language models, work well just because their word embeddings encode the empirical word frequency into the underlying probabilistic model.

Although Answer Set Programming (ASP) allows constraining neural-symbolic (NeSy) systems, its employment is hindered by the prohibitive costs of computing stable models and the CPU-bound nature of state-of-the-art solvers. To this end, we propose Answer Set Networks (ASN), a NeSy solver. Based on Graph Neural Networks (GNN), ASNs are a scalable approach to ASP-based Deep Probabilistic Logic Programming (DPPL). Specifically, we show how to translate ASPs into ASNs and demonstrate how ASNs can efficiently solve the encoded problem by leveraging GPU's batching and parallelization capabilities. Our experimental evaluations demonstrate that ASNs outperform state-of-the-art CPU-bound NeSy systems on multiple tasks. Simultaneously, we make the following two contributions based on the strengths of ASNs. Namely, we are the first to show the finetuning of Large Language Models (LLM) with DPPLs, employing ASNs to guide the training with logic. Further, we show the "constitutional navigation" of drones, i.e., encoding public aviation laws in an ASN for routing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in uncertain environments.

Sparse Mixture of Experts (sMoE) has become a pivotal approach for scaling large vision-language models, offering substantial capacity while maintaining computational efficiency through dynamic, sparse activation of experts. However, existing routing mechanisms, typically based on similarity scoring, struggle to effectively capture the underlying input structure. This limitation leads to a trade-off between expert specialization and balanced computation, hindering both scalability and performance. We propose Input Domain Aware MoE, a novel routing framework that leverages a probabilistic mixture model to better partition the input space. By modeling routing probabilities as a mixture of distributions, our method enables experts to develop clear specialization boundaries while achieving balanced utilization. Unlike conventional approaches, our routing mechanism is trained independently of task-specific objectives, allowing for stable optimization and decisive expert assignments. Empirical results on vision-language tasks demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms existing sMoE approaches, achieving higher task performance and improved expert utilization balance.

Multi-modal generative AI has received increasing attention in both academia and industry. Particularly, two dominant families of techniques are: i) The multi-modal large language model (MLLM) such as GPT-4V, which shows impressive ability for multi-modal understanding; ii) The diffusion model such as Sora, which exhibits remarkable multi-modal powers, especially with respect to visual generation. As such, one natural question arises: Is it possible to have a unified model for both understanding and generation? To answer this question, in this paper, we first provide a detailed review of both MLLM and diffusion models, including their probabilistic modeling procedure, multi-modal architecture design, and advanced applications to image/video large language models as well as text-to-image/video generation. Then, we discuss the two important questions on the unified model: i) whether the unified model should adopt the auto-regressive or diffusion probabilistic modeling, and ii) whether the model should utilize a dense architecture or the Mixture of Experts(MoE) architectures to better support generation and understanding, two objectives. We further provide several possible strategies for building a unified model and analyze their potential advantages and disadvantages. We also summarize existing large-scale multi-modal datasets for better model pretraining in the future. To conclude the paper, we present several challenging future directions, which we believe can contribute to the ongoing advancement of multi-modal generative AI.

Several recent papers have investigated the potential of language models as knowledge bases as well as the existence of severe biases when extracting factual knowledge. In this work, we focus on the factual probing performance over unseen prompts from tuning, and using a probabilistic view we show the inherent misalignment between pre-training and downstream tuning objectives in language models for probing knowledge. We hypothesize that simultaneously debiasing these objectives can be the key to generalisation over unseen prompts. We propose an adapter-based framework, UniArk, for generalised and consistent factual knowledge extraction through simple methods without introducing extra parameters. Extensive experiments show that UniArk can significantly improve the model's out-of-domain generalisation as well as consistency under various prompts. Additionally, we construct ParaTrex, a large-scale and diverse dataset for measuring the inconsistency and out-of-domain generation of models. Further, ParaTrex offers a reference method for constructing paraphrased datasets using large language models.

Autoregressive models (ARMs) are widely regarded as the cornerstone of large language models (LLMs). We challenge this notion by introducing LLaDA, a diffusion model trained from scratch under the pre-training and supervised fine-tuning (SFT) paradigm. LLaDA models distributions through a forward data masking process and a reverse process, parameterized by a vanilla Transformer to predict masked tokens. By optimizing a likelihood bound, it provides a principled generative approach for probabilistic inference. Across extensive benchmarks, LLaDA demonstrates strong scalability, outperforming our self-constructed ARM baselines. Remarkably, LLaDA 8B is competitive with strong LLMs like LLaMA3 8B in in-context learning and, after SFT, exhibits impressive instruction-following abilities in case studies such as multi-turn dialogue. Moreover, LLaDA addresses the reversal curse, surpassing GPT-4o in a reversal poem completion task. Our findings establish diffusion models as a viable and promising alternative to ARMs, challenging the assumption that key LLM capabilities discussed above are inherently tied to ARMs.

Transformers, currently the state-of-the-art in natural language understanding (NLU) tasks, are prone to generate uncalibrated predictions or extreme probabilities, making the process of taking different decisions based on their output relatively difficult. In this paper we propose to build several inductive Venn--ABERS predictors (IVAP), which are guaranteed to be well calibrated under minimal assumptions, based on a selection of pre-trained transformers. We test their performance over a set of diverse NLU tasks and show that they are capable of producing well-calibrated probabilistic predictions that are uniformly spread over the [0,1] interval -- all while retaining the original model's predictive accuracy.

Recently, Probabilistic Language-Image Pre-Training (ProLIP) has been proposed to tackle the multiplicity issue of vision-language (VL) tasks. Despite their success in probabilistic representation learning at a scale, the ProLIP models cannot handle long context texts longer than 64 context length, which limits their ability to capture rich contextual information from longer text sequences. To address this issue, this paper proposes a fine-tuning strategy for ProLIP to accept longer texts, e.g., 256 text tokens. Experimental results on Urban-1k and the DataComp evaluation suite show that the proposed LongProLIP recipe can improve understanding of long contexts while minimizing the negative effect of fine-tuning. We also observe a trade-off between the long context understanding (measured by Urban-1k) and general zero-shot capability (measured by ImageNet or the average of 38 zero-shot evaluation datasets by DataComp).

Semantic mapping based on the supervised object detectors is sensitive to image distribution. In real-world environments, the object detection and segmentation performance can lead to a major drop, preventing the use of semantic mapping in a wider domain. On the other hand, the development of vision-language foundation models demonstrates a strong zero-shot transferability across data distribution. It provides an opportunity to construct generalizable instance-aware semantic maps. Hence, this work explores how to boost instance-aware semantic mapping from object detection generated from foundation models. We propose a probabilistic label fusion method to predict close-set semantic classes from open-set label measurements. An instance refinement module merges the over-segmented instances caused by inconsistent segmentation. We integrate all the modules into a unified semantic mapping system. Reading a sequence of RGB-D input, our work incrementally reconstructs an instance-aware semantic map. We evaluate the zero-shot performance of our method in ScanNet and SceneNN datasets. Our method achieves 40.3 mean average precision (mAP) on the ScanNet semantic instance segmentation task. It outperforms the traditional semantic mapping method significantly.

Ever since the Multilayered Perceptron was first introduced the connectionist community has struggled with the concept of uncertainty and how this could be represented in these types of models. This past decade has seen a lot of effort in trying to join the principled approach of probabilistic modeling with the scalable nature of deep neural networks. While the theoretical benefits of this consolidation are clear, there are also several important practical aspects of these endeavors; namely to force the models we create to represent, learn, and report uncertainty in every prediction that is made. Many of these efforts have been based on extending existing frameworks with additional structures. We present Borch, a scalable deep universal probabilistic programming language, built on top of PyTorch. The code is available for download and use in our repository https://gitlab.com/desupervised/borch.

Medical decision-making requires integrating diverse medical information, from imaging to clinical narratives. These medical modalities are often acquired in a many-to-many manner. However, current medical vision-language pretraining models (Med-VLPMs) fail to directly account for this many-to-many mapping in their model training and embeddings. To address this, we present Probabilistic Modality-Enhanced Diagnosis (ProbMED), a multimodal Med-VLPM that employs probabilistic contrastive learning to model distributions over embeddings rather than deterministic estimates. ProbMED aligns four distinct modalities -- chest X-rays, electrocardiograms, echocardiograms, and clinical text -- into a unified probabilistic embedding space. We use InfoNCE loss with Hellinger distance to integrate inter-modality distributions. We introduce a probabilistic synthetic sampling loss that captures modality-specific mean and variance to improve intra-modality binding. Extensive experiments across 13 medical datasets demonstrate that our model outperforms current Med-VLPMs in cross-modality retrieval, zero-shot, and few-shot classification. We also demonstrate the robust integration of multiple modalities for prognostication, showing improved intra- and inter-medical modality binding.

We address two challenges of probabilistic topic modelling in order to better estimate the probability of a word in a given context, i.e., P(word|context): (1) No Language Structure in Context: Probabilistic topic models ignore word order by summarizing a given context as a "bag-of-word" and consequently the semantics of words in the context is lost. The LSTM-LM learns a vector-space representation of each word by accounting for word order in local collocation patterns and models complex characteristics of language (e.g., syntax and semantics), while the TM simultaneously learns a latent representation from the entire document and discovers the underlying thematic structure. We unite two complementary paradigms of learning the meaning of word occurrences by combining a TM (e.g., DocNADE) and a LM in a unified probabilistic framework, named as ctx-DocNADE. (2) Limited Context and/or Smaller training corpus of documents: In settings with a small number of word occurrences (i.e., lack of context) in short text or data sparsity in a corpus of few documents, the application of TMs is challenging. We address this challenge by incorporating external knowledge into neural autoregressive topic models via a language modelling approach: we use word embeddings as input of a LSTM-LM with the aim to improve the word-topic mapping on a smaller and/or short-text corpus. The proposed DocNADE extension is named as ctx-DocNADEe. We present novel neural autoregressive topic model variants coupled with neural LMs and embeddings priors that consistently outperform state-of-the-art generative TMs in terms of generalization (perplexity), interpretability (topic coherence) and applicability (retrieval and classification) over 6 long-text and 8 short-text datasets from diverse domains.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

We introduce the Probabilistic Worldbuilding Model (PWM), a new fully-symbolic Bayesian model of semantic parsing and reasoning, as a first step in a research program toward more domain- and task-general NLU and AI. Humans create internal mental models of their observations which greatly aid in their ability to understand and reason about a large variety of problems. In PWM, the meanings of sentences, acquired facts about the world, and intermediate steps in reasoning are all expressed in a human-readable formal language, with the design goal of interpretability. PWM is Bayesian, designed specifically to be able to generalize to new domains and new tasks. We derive and implement an inference algorithm that reads sentences by parsing and abducing updates to its latent world model that capture the semantics of those sentences, and evaluate it on two out-of-domain question-answering datasets: (1) ProofWriter and (2) a new dataset we call FictionalGeoQA, designed to be more representative of real language but still simple enough to focus on evaluating reasoning ability, while being robust against heuristics. Our method outperforms baselines on both, thereby demonstrating its value as a proof-of-concept.

Large text-to-video models trained on internet-scale data have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in generating high-fidelity videos from arbitrary textual descriptions. However, adapting these models to tasks with limited domain-specific data, such as animation or robotics videos, poses a significant computational challenge, since finetuning a pretrained large model can be prohibitively expensive. Inspired by how a small modifiable component (e.g., prompts, prefix-tuning) can adapt a large language model to perform new tasks without requiring access to the model weights, we investigate how to adapt a large pretrained text-to-video model to a variety of downstream domains and tasks without finetuning. In answering this question, we propose Video Adapter, which leverages the score function of a large pretrained video diffusion model as a probabilistic prior to guide the generation of a task-specific small video model. Our experiments show that Video Adapter is capable of incorporating the broad knowledge and preserving the high fidelity of a large pretrained video model in a task-specific small video model that is able to generate high-quality yet specialized videos on a variety of tasks such as animation, egocentric modeling, and modeling of simulated and real-world robotics data. More videos can be found on the website https://video-adapter.github.io/.

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-shot and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.

Despite the success of autoregressive large language models in text generation, it remains a major challenge to generate text that satisfies complex constraints: sampling from the conditional distribution {Pr}(text | alpha) is intractable for even the simplest lexical constraints alpha. To overcome this challenge, we propose to use tractable probabilistic models (TPMs) to impose lexical constraints in autoregressive text generation models, which we refer to as GeLaTo (Generating Language with Tractable Constraints). To demonstrate the effectiveness of this framework, we use distilled hidden Markov models, where we can efficiently compute {Pr}(text | alpha), to guide autoregressive generation from GPT2. GeLaTo achieves state-of-the-art performance on challenging benchmarks for constrained text generation (e.g., CommonGen), beating various strong baselines by a large margin. Our work not only opens up new avenues for controlling large language models but also motivates the development of more expressive TPMs.

Generative molecular design has moved from proof-of-concept to real-world applicability, as marked by the surge in very recent papers reporting experimental validation. Key challenges in explainability and sample efficiency present opportunities to enhance generative design to directly optimize expensive high-fidelity oracles and provide actionable insights to domain experts. Here, we propose Beam Enumeration to exhaustively enumerate the most probable sub-sequences from language-based molecular generative models and show that molecular substructures can be extracted. When coupled with reinforcement learning, extracted substructures become meaningful, providing a source of explainability and improving sample efficiency through self-conditioned generation. Beam Enumeration is generally applicable to any language-based molecular generative model and notably further improves the performance of the recently reported Augmented Memory algorithm, which achieved the new state-of-the-art on the Practical Molecular Optimization benchmark for sample efficiency. The combined algorithm generates more high reward molecules and faster, given a fixed oracle budget. Beam Enumeration shows that improvements to explainability and sample efficiency for molecular design can be made synergistic.

Recent advances in generative medical models are constrained by modality-specific scenarios that hinder the integration of complementary evidence from imaging, pathology, and clinical notes. This fragmentation limits their evolution into foundation models that can learn and reason across the full spectrum of biomedical data. We propose MeDiM, the first medical discrete diffusion model that learns shared distributions across modalities without modality-specific components. MeDiM unifies multiple generative tasks: translating between images and text, and jointly producing image-report pairs across domains in response to prompts. Built on a discrete diffusion framework, MeDiM bridges vision and language representations through a shared probabilistic space. To enable unified and flexible medical generation, we employ a multimodal large language model (MLLM) as the diffusion backbone, leveraging its prior knowledge and cross-modal reasoning. Two key designs are introduced: (1) removing the causal attention mask for bidirectional context, and (2) injecting continuous timestep embeddings for diffusion awareness. Experiments demonstrate high-fidelity medical generation (FID 16.60 on MIMIC-CXR and FID 24.19 on PathGen) and accurate report generation (METEOR 0.2650 and 0.2580). Jointly generated image-report pairs further enhance downstream performance (plus6.43 percent BLEU-1, plus18.57 percent BLEU-2, plus31.58 percent BLEU-3, plus4.80 percent METEOR), showing that MeDiM supports coherent and clinically grounded multimodal outputs.

Syntactic structures used to play a vital role in natural language processing (NLP), but since the deep learning revolution, NLP has been gradually dominated by neural models that do not consider syntactic structures in their design. One vastly successful class of neural models is transformers. When used as an encoder, a transformer produces contextual representation of words in the input sentence. In this work, we propose a new model of contextual word representation, not from a neural perspective, but from a purely syntactic and probabilistic perspective. Specifically, we design a conditional random field that models discrete latent representations of all words in a sentence as well as dependency arcs between them; and we use mean field variational inference for approximate inference. Strikingly, we find that the computation graph of our model resembles transformers, with correspondences between dependencies and self-attention and between distributions over latent representations and contextual embeddings of words. Experiments show that our model performs competitively to transformers on small to medium sized datasets. We hope that our work could help bridge the gap between traditional syntactic and probabilistic approaches and cutting-edge neural approaches to NLP, and inspire more linguistically-principled neural approaches in the future.

With the emergence of neural audio codecs, which encode multiple streams of discrete tokens from audio, large language models have recently gained attention as a promising approach for zero-shot Text-to-Speech (TTS) synthesis. Despite the ongoing rush towards scaling paradigms, audio tokenization ironically amplifies the scalability challenge, stemming from its long sequence length and the complexity of modelling the multiple sequences. To mitigate these issues, we present CLaM-TTS that employs a probabilistic residual vector quantization to (1) achieve superior compression in the token length, and (2) allow a language model to generate multiple tokens at once, thereby eliminating the need for cascaded modeling to handle the number of token streams. Our experimental results demonstrate that CLaM-TTS is better than or comparable to state-of-the-art neural codec-based TTS models regarding naturalness, intelligibility, speaker similarity, and inference speed. In addition, we examine the impact of the pretraining extent of the language models and their text tokenization strategies on performances.

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) has demonstrated the ability to learn and leverage Internet-scale knowledge through pre-training with autoregressive models. Unfortunately, applying such models to settings with embodied agents, such as robots, is challenging due to their lack of experience with the physical world, inability to parse non-language observations, and ignorance of rewards or safety constraints that robots may require. On the other hand, language-conditioned robotic policies that learn from interaction data can provide the necessary grounding that allows the agent to be correctly situated in the real world, but such policies are limited by the lack of high-level semantic understanding due to the limited breadth of the interaction data available for training them. Thus, if we want to make use of the semantic knowledge in a language model while still situating it in an embodied setting, we must construct an action sequence that is both likely according to the language model and also realizable according to grounded models of the environment. We frame this as a problem similar to probabilistic filtering: decode a sequence that both has high probability under the language model and high probability under a set of grounded model objectives. We demonstrate this guided decoding strategy is able to solve complex, long-horizon embodiment tasks in a robotic setting by leveraging the knowledge of both models. The project's website can be found at grounded-decoding.github.io.

We introduce Chronos, a simple yet effective framework for pretrained probabilistic time series models. Chronos tokenizes time series values using scaling and quantization into a fixed vocabulary and trains existing transformer-based language model architectures on these tokenized time series via the cross-entropy loss. We pretrained Chronos models based on the T5 family (ranging from 20M to 710M parameters) on a large collection of publicly available datasets, complemented by a synthetic dataset that we generated via Gaussian processes to improve generalization. In a comprehensive benchmark consisting of 42 datasets, and comprising both classical local models and deep learning methods, we show that Chronos models: (a) significantly outperform other methods on datasets that were part of the training corpus; and (b) have comparable and occasionally superior zero-shot performance on new datasets, relative to methods that were trained specifically on them. Our results demonstrate that Chronos models can leverage time series data from diverse domains to improve zero-shot accuracy on unseen forecasting tasks, positioning pretrained models as a viable tool to greatly simplify forecasting pipelines.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a tractable representation of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. There has been significant recent progress on improving the scale and expressiveness of PCs. However, PC training performance plateaus as model size increases. We discover that most capacity in existing large PC structures is wasted: fully-connected parameter layers are only sparsely used. We propose two operations: pruning and growing, that exploit the sparsity of PC structures. Specifically, the pruning operation removes unimportant sub-networks of the PC for model compression and comes with theoretical guarantees. The growing operation increases model capacity by increasing the size of the latent space. By alternatingly applying pruning and growing, we increase the capacity that is meaningfully used, allowing us to significantly scale up PC learning. Empirically, our learner achieves state-of-the-art likelihoods on MNIST-family image datasets and on Penn Tree Bank language data compared to other PC learners and less tractable deep generative models such as flow-based models and variational autoencoders (VAEs).

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a unified framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various probabilistic queries (e.g., marginal probabilities). One key challenge is to scale PCs to model large and high-dimensional real-world datasets: we observe that as the number of parameters in PCs increases, their performance immediately plateaus. This phenomenon suggests that the existing optimizers fail to exploit the full expressive power of large PCs. We propose to overcome such bottleneck by latent variable distillation: we leverage the less tractable but more expressive deep generative models to provide extra supervision over the latent variables of PCs. Specifically, we extract information from Transformer-based generative models to assign values to latent variables of PCs, providing guidance to PC optimizers. Experiments on both image and language modeling benchmarks (e.g., ImageNet and WikiText-2) show that latent variable distillation substantially boosts the performance of large PCs compared to their counterparts without latent variable distillation. In particular, on the image modeling benchmarks, PCs achieve competitive performance against some of the widely-used deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and flow-based models, opening up new avenues for tractable generative modeling.

This work studies discrete diffusion probabilistic models with applications to natural language generation. We derive an alternative yet equivalent formulation of the sampling from discrete diffusion processes and leverage this insight to develop a family of reparameterized discrete diffusion models. The derived generic framework is highly flexible, offers a fresh perspective of the generation process in discrete diffusion models, and features more effective training and decoding techniques. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate the text generation capability of our model, demonstrating significant improvements over existing diffusion models.

Supervised learning for empathy regression is challenged by noisy self-reported empathy scores. While many algorithms have been proposed for learning with noisy labels in textual classification problems, the regression counterpart is relatively under-explored. We propose UPLME, an uncertainty-aware probabilistic language modelling framework to capture label noise in the regression setting of empathy detection. UPLME includes a probabilistic language model that predicts both empathy score and heteroscedastic uncertainty and is trained using Bayesian concepts with variational model ensembling. We further introduce two novel loss components: one penalises degenerate Uncertainty Quantification (UQ), and another enforces the similarity between the input pairs on which we predict empathy. UPLME provides state-of-the-art performance (Pearson Correlation Coefficient: 0.558rightarrow0.580 and 0.629rightarrow0.634) in terms of the performance reported in the literature in two public benchmarks, having label noise. Through synthetic label noise injection, we show that UPLME is effective in separating noisy and clean samples based on the predicted uncertainty. UPLME further outperform (Calibration error: 0.571rightarrow0.376) a recent variational model ensembling-based UQ method designed for regression problems.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

We propose LoRA-MCL, a training scheme that extends next-token prediction in language models with a method designed to decode diverse, plausible sentence continuations at inference time. Traditional language modeling is an intrinsically ill-posed problem: given a context, multiple futures may be equally plausible. Our approach leverages Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) and the Winner-Takes-All (WTA) loss to efficiently handle ambiguity through Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA). We provide a theoretical interpretation of applying Multiple Choice Learning to Language Modeling, assuming the data is generated from a mixture of distributions. To illustrate the proposed approach, we use data sampled from mixtures of Markov chains. We then demonstrate with extensive experiments on real-world visual and audio captioning tasks that our method achieves high diversity and relevance in generated outputs.

Recently, the emergence of pre-trained models (PTMs) has brought natural language processing (NLP) to a new era. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of PTMs for NLP. We first briefly introduce language representation learning and its research progress. Then we systematically categorize existing PTMs based on a taxonomy with four perspectives. Next, we describe how to adapt the knowledge of PTMs to the downstream tasks. Finally, we outline some potential directions of PTMs for future research. This survey is purposed to be a hands-on guide for understanding, using, and developing PTMs for various NLP tasks.

Large language models (LLMs) have proven to be remarkably efficient, both across a wide range of natural language processing tasks and well beyond them. However, a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the origins of their impressive performance remains elusive. In this paper, we approach this challenging task by drawing an equivalence between generic autoregressive language models with vocabulary of size T and context window of size K and Markov chains defined on a finite state space of size O(T^K). We derive several surprising findings related to the existence of a stationary distribution of Markov chains that capture the inference power of LLMs, their speed of convergence to it, and the influence of the temperature on the latter. We then prove pre-training and in-context generalization bounds and show how the drawn equivalence allows us to enrich their interpretation. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical guarantees with experiments on several recent LLMs to highlight how they capture the behavior observed in practice.

We propose a new benchmark corpus to be used for measuring progress in statistical language modeling. With almost one billion words of training data, we hope this benchmark will be useful to quickly evaluate novel language modeling techniques, and to compare their contribution when combined with other advanced techniques. We show performance of several well-known types of language models, with the best results achieved with a recurrent neural network based language model. The baseline unpruned Kneser-Ney 5-gram model achieves perplexity 67.6; a combination of techniques leads to 35% reduction in perplexity, or 10% reduction in cross-entropy (bits), over that baseline. The benchmark is available as a code.google.com project; besides the scripts needed to rebuild the training/held-out data, it also makes available log-probability values for each word in each of ten held-out data sets, for each of the baseline n-gram models.

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

Self-supervised neural language models have recently achieved unprecedented success, from natural language processing to learning the languages of biological sequences and organic molecules. These models have demonstrated superior performance in the generation, structure classification, and functional predictions for proteins and molecules with learned representations. However, most of the masking-based pre-trained language models are not designed for generative design, and their black-box nature makes it difficult to interpret their design logic. Here we propose BLMM Crystal Transformer, a neural network based probabilistic generative model for generative and tinkering design of inorganic materials. Our model is built on the blank filling language model for text generation and has demonstrated unique advantages in learning the "materials grammars" together with high-quality generation, interpretability, and data efficiency. It can generate chemically valid materials compositions with as high as 89.7\% charge neutrality and 84.8\% balanced electronegativity, which are more than 4 and 8 times higher compared to a pseudo random sampling baseline. The probabilistic generation process of BLMM allows it to recommend tinkering operations based on learned materials chemistry and makes it useful for materials doping. Combined with the TCSP crysal structure prediction algorithm, We have applied our model to discover a set of new materials as validated using DFT calculations. Our work thus brings the unsupervised transformer language models based generative artificial intelligence to inorganic materials. A user-friendly web app has been developed for computational materials doping and can be accessed freely at www.materialsatlas.org/blmtinker.

Foundational image-language models have generated considerable interest due to their efficient adaptation to downstream tasks by prompt learning. Prompt learning treats part of the language model input as trainable while freezing the rest, and optimizes an Empirical Risk Minimization objective. However, Empirical Risk Minimization is known to suffer from distributional shifts which hurt generalizability to prompts unseen during training. By leveraging the regularization ability of Bayesian methods, we frame prompt learning from the Bayesian perspective and formulate it as a variational inference problem. Our approach regularizes the prompt space, reduces overfitting to the seen prompts and improves the prompt generalization on unseen prompts. Our framework is implemented by modeling the input prompt space in a probabilistic manner, as an a priori distribution which makes our proposal compatible with prompt learning approaches that are unconditional or conditional on the image. We demonstrate empirically on 15 benchmarks that Bayesian prompt learning provides an appropriate coverage of the prompt space, prevents learning spurious features, and exploits transferable invariant features. This results in better generalization of unseen prompts, even across different datasets and domains. Code available at: https://github.com/saic-fi/Bayesian-Prompt-Learning

The ability to acquire latent semantics is one of the key properties that determines the performance of language models. One convenient approach to invoke this ability is to prepend metadata (e.g. URLs, domains, and styles) at the beginning of texts in the pre-training data, making it easier for the model to access latent semantics before observing the entire text. Previous studies have reported that this technique actually improves the performance of trained models in downstream tasks; however, this improvement has been observed only in specific downstream tasks, without consistent enhancement in average next-token prediction loss. To understand this phenomenon, we closely investigate how prepending metadata during pre-training affects model performance by examining its behavior using artificial data. Interestingly, we found that this approach produces both positive and negative effects on the downstream tasks. We demonstrate that the effectiveness of the approach depends on whether latent semantics can be inferred from the downstream task's prompt. Specifically, through investigations using data generated by probabilistic context-free grammars, we show that training with metadata helps improve model's performance when the given context is long enough to infer the latent semantics. In contrast, the technique negatively impacts performance when the context lacks the necessary information to make an accurate posterior inference.

Early exiting has recently emerged as a promising technique for accelerating large language models (LLMs) by effectively reducing the hardware computation and memory access. In this paper, we present SpecEE, a fast LLM inference engine with speculative early exiting. (1) At the algorithm level, we propose the speculation-based lightweight predictor design by exploiting the probabilistic correlation between the speculative tokens and the correct results and high parallelism of GPUs. (2) At the system level, we point out that not all layers need a predictor and design the two-level heuristic predictor scheduling engine based on skewed distribution and contextual similarity. (3) At the mapping level, we point out that different decoding methods share the same essential characteristics, and propose the context-aware merged mapping for predictor with efficient GPU implementations to support speculative decoding, and form a framework for various existing orthogonal acceleration techniques (e.g., quantization and sparse activation) on cloud and personal computer (PC) scenarios, successfully pushing the Pareto frontier of accuracy and speedup. It is worth noting that SpecEE can be applied to any LLM by negligible training overhead in advance without affecting the model original parameters. Extensive experiments show that SpecEE achieves 2.25x and 2.43x speedup with Llama2-7B on cloud and PC scenarios respectively.

Current Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) typically integrate a pre-trained LLM with another pre-trained vision transformer through a connector, such as an MLP, endowing the LLM with visual capabilities. However, the misalignment between two embedding strategies in MLLMs -- the structural textual embeddings based on an embedding look-up table and the continuous embeddings generated directly by the vision encoder -- makes challenges for a more seamless fusion of visual and textual information. We propose Ovis, a novel MLLM architecture designed to structurally align visual and textual embeddings. Ovis integrates an additional learnable visual embedding table into the visual encoder's process. To capture rich visual semantics, each image patch indexes the visual embedding table multiple times, resulting in a final visual embedding that is a probabilistic combination of the indexed embeddings. This structural approach mirrors the method used for generating textual embeddings. Empirical evaluations on various multimodal benchmarks demonstrate that Ovis outperforms open-source MLLMs of similar parameter scales and even surpasses the proprietary model Qwen-VL-Plus overall. These results highlight the potential of Ovis' structured visual representation for advancing MLLM architectural design and promoting more effective multimodal learning. Both the source code and the training dataset of Ovis will be made publicly available.

Eliciting information to reduce uncertainty about a latent entity is a critical task in many application domains, e.g., assessing individual student learning outcomes, diagnosing underlying diseases, or learning user preferences. Though natural language is a powerful medium for this purpose, large language models (LLMs) and existing fine-tuning algorithms lack mechanisms for strategically gathering information to refine their own understanding of the latent entity. To harness the generalization power and world knowledge of LLMs in developing effective information-gathering strategies, we propose an adaptive elicitation framework that actively reduces uncertainty on the latent entity. Since probabilistic modeling of an abstract latent entity is difficult, our framework adopts a predictive view of uncertainty, using a meta-learned language model to simulate future observations and enable scalable uncertainty quantification over complex natural language. Through autoregressive forward simulation, our model quantifies how new questions reduce epistemic uncertainty, enabling the development of sophisticated information-gathering strategies to choose the most informative next queries. In experiments on the 20 questions game, dynamic opinion polling, and adaptive student assessment, our method consistently outperforms baselines in identifying critical unknowns and improving downstream predictions, illustrating the promise of strategic information gathering in natural language settings.

Multi-head attention is a driving force behind state-of-the-art transformers, which achieve remarkable performance across a variety of natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision tasks. It has been observed that for many applications, those attention heads learn redundant embedding, and most of them can be removed without degrading the performance of the model. Inspired by this observation, we propose Transformer with a Mixture of Gaussian Keys (Transformer-MGK), a novel transformer architecture that replaces redundant heads in transformers with a mixture of keys at each head. These mixtures of keys follow a Gaussian mixture model and allow each attention head to focus on different parts of the input sequence efficiently. Compared to its conventional transformer counterpart, Transformer-MGK accelerates training and inference, has fewer parameters, and requires fewer FLOPs to compute while achieving comparable or better accuracy across tasks. Transformer-MGK can also be easily extended to use with linear attention. We empirically demonstrate the advantage of Transformer-MGK in a range of practical applications, including language modeling and tasks that involve very long sequences. On the Wikitext-103 and Long Range Arena benchmark, Transformer-MGKs with 4 heads attain comparable or better performance to the baseline transformers with 8 heads.

Phonemization, the conversion of text into phonemes, is a key step in text-to-speech. Traditional approaches use rule-based transformations and lexicon lookups, while more advanced methods apply preprocessing techniques or neural networks for improved accuracy on out-of-domain vocabulary. However, all systems struggle with names, loanwords, abbreviations, and homographs. This work presents OLaPh (Optimal Language Phonemizer), a framework that combines large lexica, multiple NLP techniques, and compound resolution with a probabilistic scoring function. Evaluations in German and English show improved accuracy over previous approaches, including on a challenging dataset. To further address unresolved cases, we train a large language model on OLaPh-generated data, which achieves even stronger generalization and performance. Together, the framework and LLM improve phonemization consistency and provide a freely available resource for future research.

This paper introduces a neural model for concept-to-text generation that scales to large, rich domains. We experiment with a new dataset of biographies from Wikipedia that is an order of magnitude larger than existing resources with over 700k samples. The dataset is also vastly more diverse with a 400k vocabulary, compared to a few hundred words for Weathergov or Robocup. Our model builds upon recent work on conditional neural language model for text generation. To deal with the large vocabulary, we extend these models to mix a fixed vocabulary with copy actions that transfer sample-specific words from the input database to the generated output sentence. Our neural model significantly out-performs a classical Kneser-Ney language model adapted to this task by nearly 15 BLEU.

We introduce a novel approach for building language models based on a systematic, recursive exploration of skip n-gram models which are interpolated using modified Kneser-Ney smoothing. Our approach generalizes language models as it contains the classical interpolation with lower order models as a special case. In this paper we motivate, formalize and present our approach. In an extensive empirical experiment over English text corpora we demonstrate that our generalized language models lead to a substantial reduction of perplexity between 3.1% and 12.7% in comparison to traditional language models using modified Kneser-Ney smoothing. Furthermore, we investigate the behaviour over three other languages and a domain specific corpus where we observed consistent improvements. Finally, we also show that the strength of our approach lies in its ability to cope in particular with sparse training data. Using a very small training data set of only 736 KB text we yield improvements of even 25.7% reduction of perplexity.