leaderboard tournament: automatic update html & csv files.

leaderboards/csv/leaderboard_tournament.csv

@@ -1,194 +1,194 @@
 Rank,Team,Model Organization,Model,Dataset,N dataset,Dataset 95% CI,Market,N market,Market 95% CI,Overall,N,Overall 95% CI,Supers > Forecaster?,p-val Supers > Forecaster?,Forecaster > Public?,p-val Forecaster > Public?,Pct times № 1,Pct times top 5%,x% oracle equiv,Peer,BSS
-1,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.152,477,"[0.142, 0.161]",0.033,54,"[0.013, 0.051]",0.092,531,"[0.081, 0.103]",—,—,Yes,<0.001,94.247,100.0,70%,0.185,0.097
-2,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.153,680,"[0.144, 0.162]",0.064,30,"[0.033, 0.096]",0.108,710,"[0.092, 0.125]",Likely,0.06,Likely,0.02,5.153,92.296,67%,0.194,0.06
-3,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.158,680,"[0.148, 0.167]",0.06,30,"[0.047, 0.075]",0.109,710,"[0.101, 0.117]",Yes,<0.01,Yes,<0.01,0.05,99.9,67%,0.194,0.059
-4,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.157,680,"[0.148, 0.165]",0.065,30,"[0.049, 0.084]",0.111,710,"[0.101, 0.122]",Yes,<0.01,Likely,0.01,0.1,95.948,67%,0.192,0.057
-5,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.049,131,"[0.039, 0.06]",0.112,1982,"[0.107, 0.118]",Yes,<0.001,Yes,<0.01,0.0,99.25,66%,0.207,0.058
-6,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.165,934,"[0.158, 0.171]",0.065,59,"[0.048, 0.083]",0.115,993,"[0.106, 0.125]",Yes,<0.01,Likely,0.03,0.0,87.394,66%,0.184,0.066
-6,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.176,6468,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.055,411,"[0.044, 0.065]",0.115,6879,"[0.11, 0.121]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.01,0.0,93.047,66%,0.193,0.06
-8,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.058,131,"[0.045, 0.073]",0.116,1982,"[0.109, 0.123]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.03,0.0,80.84,66%,0.204,0.055
-9,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.174,4620,"[0.171, 0.177]",0.063,310,"[0.052, 0.073]",0.119,4930,"[0.113, 0.124]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.05,0.0,58.779,66%,0.194,0.057
-10,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.183,6468,"[0.181, 0.186]",0.057,411,"[0.047, 0.069]",0.12,6879,"[0.115, 0.126]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.09,0.0,26.513,65%,0.188,0.055
-11,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.175,4141,"[0.169, 0.181]",0.07,226,"[0.055, 0.086]",0.122,4367,"[0.114, 0.131]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.17,0.0,12.506,65%,0.185,0.053
-12,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.18]",0.073,59,"[0.054, 0.094]",0.123,993,"[0.113, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.21,0.0,16.408,65%,0.176,0.057
-13,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.194,6468,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.055,411,"[0.045, 0.065]",0.124,6879,"[0.119, 0.13]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.24,0.0,0.05,65%,0.184,0.051
-13,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.196,1835,"[0.191, 0.2]",0.052,120,"[0.041, 0.065]",0.124,1955,"[0.118, 0.131]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.23,0.0,2.801,65%,0.188,0.055
-13,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.174,680,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.074,30,"[0.052, 0.107]",0.124,710,"[0.112, 0.141]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.30,0.0,16.408,65%,0.179,0.044
-16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.168,680,"[0.159, 0.177]",0.083,30,"[0.058, 0.113]",0.125,710,"[0.112, 0.142]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.35,0.0,13.407,65%,0.178,0.043
-16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,3698,"[0.189, 0.197]",0.058,245,"[0.047, 0.069]",0.125,3943,"[0.119, 0.131]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.28,0.0,0.05,65%,0.184,0.052
-18,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.17,680,"[0.158, 0.181]",0.085,30,"[0.052, 0.131]",0.127,710,"[0.109, 0.151]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.43,0.0,15.758,64%,0.175,0.041
-18,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.165,680,"[0.157, 0.173]",0.089,30,"[0.052, 0.152]",0.127,710,"[0.108, 0.159]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.41,0.0,33.117,64%,0.176,0.041
-18,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.17,3207,"[0.166, 0.175]",0.083,167,"[0.064, 0.104]",0.127,3374,"[0.117, 0.138]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.39,0.0,3.652,64%,0.183,0.047
-21,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.185,5020,"[0.181, 0.188]",0.072,265,"[0.06, 0.086]",0.128,5285,"[0.122, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.48,0.0,0.0,64%,0.181,0.044
-21,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.191,10912,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.065,687,"[0.055, 0.075]",0.128,11599,"[0.123, 0.134]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.47,0.0,0.0,64%,0.177,0.048
-23,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,11590,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.065,723,"[0.054, 0.077]",0.129,12313,"[0.124, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.53,0.0,0.0,64%,0.178,0.046
-23,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,4931,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.059,317,"[0.048, 0.07]",0.129,5248,"[0.123, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.50,0.0,0.0,64%,0.168,0.049
-23,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.185,477,"[0.172, 0.198]",0.073,54,"[0.052, 0.095]",0.129,531,"[0.117, 0.141]",Yes,<0.001,—,—,0.0,5.353,64%,0.148,0.06
-23,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot),0.167,934,"[0.158, 0.176]",0.092,59,"[0.061, 0.131]",0.129,993,"[0.112, 0.149]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.53,0.0,9.805,64%,0.169,0.051
-23,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,6468,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.065,411,"[0.053, 0.078]",0.129,6879,"[0.123, 0.136]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.54,0.0,0.0,64%,0.179,0.047
-28,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.181,4821,"[0.176, 0.185]",0.08,256,"[0.063, 0.098]",0.13,5077,"[0.122, 0.14]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.59,0.0,0.0,64%,0.176,0.044
-28,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.062,310,"[0.051, 0.074]",0.13,4930,"[0.125, 0.136]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.60,0.0,0.0,64%,0.182,0.046
-28,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.172,681,"[0.163, 0.18]",0.087,30,"[0.054, 0.134]",0.13,711,"[0.112, 0.153]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.52,0.0,12.806,64%,0.198,0.047
-31,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.167,934,"[0.158, 0.176]",0.095,59,"[0.068, 0.129]",0.131,993,"[0.116, 0.149]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.58,0.0,3.952,64%,0.168,0.05
-31,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.2,1848,"[0.195, 0.205]",0.062,101,"[0.048, 0.078]",0.131,1949,"[0.124, 0.14]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.62,0.0,0.0,64%,0.165,0.044
-33,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.197,680,"[0.185, 0.209]",0.069,30,"[0.052, 0.09]",0.133,710,"[0.123, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.72,0.0,0.1,63%,0.169,0.035
-34,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.165,934,"[0.158, 0.171]",0.106,59,"[0.068, 0.151]",0.135,993,"[0.116, 0.158]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.70,0.0,2.951,63%,0.164,0.045
-34,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.201,6468,"[0.198, 0.204]",0.069,411,"[0.058, 0.081]",0.135,6879,"[0.129, 0.141]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.84,0.0,0.0,63%,0.174,0.041
-36,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.198,2039,"[0.192, 0.206]",0.073,96,"[0.054, 0.093]",0.136,2135,"[0.126, 0.146]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.83,0.0,0.0,63%,0.185,0.035
-36,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.197,4931,"[0.193, 0.2]",0.075,317,"[0.061, 0.091]",0.136,5248,"[0.128, 0.144]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.90,0.0,0.0,63%,0.161,0.042
-36,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.208,2769,"[0.201, 0.215]",0.065,179,"[0.052, 0.08]",0.136,2948,"[0.129, 0.144]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.87,0.0,0.0,63%,0.171,0.043
-36,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.18]",0.099,59,"[0.068, 0.137]",0.136,993,"[0.12, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.77,0.0,0.5,63%,0.163,0.045
-40,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad),0.176,6468,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.098,411,"[0.085, 0.112]",0.137,6879,"[0.131, 0.144]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.90,0.0,0.0,63%,0.172,0.039
-40,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.099,131,"[0.074, 0.124]",0.137,1982,"[0.125, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.83,0.0,0.05,63%,0.182,0.034
-40,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.216,6431,"[0.212, 0.219]",0.058,378,"[0.047, 0.07]",0.137,6809,"[0.131, 0.143]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.90,0.0,0.0,63%,0.17,0.04
-43,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,3207,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.104,167,"[0.08, 0.128]",0.139,3374,"[0.126, 0.151]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.88,0.0,0.0,63%,0.171,0.035
-43,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.191,680,"[0.179, 0.205]",0.088,30,"[0.057, 0.127]",0.139,710,"[0.122, 0.16]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.83,0.0,0.05,63%,0.163,0.029
-43,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.215,6431,"[0.212, 0.218]",0.064,378,"[0.052, 0.075]",0.139,6809,"[0.133, 0.146]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,63%,0.167,0.037
-46,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.215,1848,"[0.209, 0.221]",0.065,101,"[0.05, 0.082]",0.14,1949,"[0.132, 0.149]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.0,63%,0.156,0.035
-46,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,680,"[0.164, 0.183]",0.106,30,"[0.056, 0.175]",0.14,710,"[0.114, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.71,0.0,4.252,63%,0.163,0.028
-48,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.085,66,"[0.065, 0.107]",0.141,995,"[0.131, 0.152]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.0,62%,0.174,0.028
-49,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.188,922,"[0.183, 0.194]",0.095,65,"[0.069, 0.124]",0.142,987,"[0.128, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.93,0.0,0.0,62%,0.183,0.03
-49,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.21,1269,"[0.202, 0.218]",0.075,118,"[0.056, 0.094]",0.142,1387,"[0.132, 0.153]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.139,0.042
-51,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot),0.196,1835,"[0.191, 0.2]",0.09,120,"[0.067, 0.113]",0.143,1955,"[0.131, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,62%,0.17,0.036
-51,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.113,131,"[0.09, 0.136]",0.143,1982,"[0.132, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.96,0.0,0.0,62%,0.176,0.028
-53,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad),0.174,3698,"[0.171, 0.177]",0.114,245,"[0.099, 0.129]",0.144,3943,"[0.136, 0.152]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.166,0.033
+1,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.152,477,"[0.141, 0.162]",0.033,54,"[0.013, 0.051]",0.092,531,"[0.081, 0.103]",—,—,Yes,<0.001,93.897,100.0,70%,0.185,0.097
+2,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.153,680,"[0.144, 0.162]",0.064,31,"[0.033, 0.095]",0.108,711,"[0.092, 0.124]",Likely,0.06,Likely,0.02,5.403,92.596,67%,0.195,0.06
+3,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.158,680,"[0.148, 0.168]",0.059,31,"[0.047, 0.073]",0.109,711,"[0.101, 0.117]",Yes,<0.01,Yes,<0.01,0.35,99.9,67%,0.194,0.059
+4,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.157,680,"[0.148, 0.166]",0.065,31,"[0.05, 0.085]",0.111,711,"[0.101, 0.122]",Yes,<0.01,Likely,0.01,0.0,96.448,67%,0.192,0.057
+5,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.049,131,"[0.039, 0.06]",0.112,1982,"[0.107, 0.118]",Yes,<0.001,Yes,<0.01,0.0,99.5,67%,0.207,0.058
+6,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.165,934,"[0.158, 0.171]",0.064,59,"[0.048, 0.083]",0.115,993,"[0.105, 0.124]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.03,0.0,87.944,66%,0.184,0.066
+6,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.176,6468,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.054,411,"[0.045, 0.065]",0.115,6879,"[0.11, 0.12]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.01,0.0,92.996,66%,0.193,0.06
+8,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.177]",0.058,131,"[0.046, 0.073]",0.116,1982,"[0.109, 0.123]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.03,0.0,79.69,66%,0.204,0.055
+9,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.174,4620,"[0.172, 0.177]",0.062,310,"[0.052, 0.073]",0.118,4930,"[0.113, 0.124]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.05,0.0,55.878,66%,0.194,0.057
+10,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.183,6468,"[0.181, 0.186]",0.057,411,"[0.046, 0.069]",0.12,6879,"[0.115, 0.126]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.09,0.0,25.463,65%,0.188,0.055
+11,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.175,4141,"[0.169, 0.181]",0.07,227,"[0.055, 0.086]",0.122,4368,"[0.114, 0.131]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.16,0.0,11.706,65%,0.185,0.053
+12,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.179]",0.073,59,"[0.053, 0.093]",0.123,993,"[0.112, 0.133]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.21,0.0,17.759,65%,0.176,0.057
+13,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.194,6468,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.055,411,"[0.044, 0.065]",0.124,6879,"[0.119, 0.129]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.23,0.0,0.2,65%,0.184,0.051
+13,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.196,1835,"[0.191, 0.2]",0.052,120,"[0.04, 0.064]",0.124,1955,"[0.117, 0.13]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.22,0.0,2.751,65%,0.188,0.055
+13,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.174,680,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.074,31,"[0.052, 0.103]",0.124,711,"[0.112, 0.139]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.27,0.0,16.858,65%,0.179,0.044
+16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.168,680,"[0.159, 0.177]",0.082,31,"[0.057, 0.11]",0.125,711,"[0.111, 0.14]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.31,0.0,13.807,65%,0.178,0.043
+16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,3698,"[0.188, 0.197]",0.058,245,"[0.047, 0.068]",0.125,3943,"[0.119, 0.131]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.27,0.0,0.05,65%,0.184,0.052
+18,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.17,680,"[0.159, 0.181]",0.083,31,"[0.051, 0.127]",0.126,711,"[0.109, 0.147]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.37,0.0,18.509,64%,0.177,0.041
+19,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.165,680,"[0.157, 0.173]",0.088,31,"[0.051, 0.145]",0.127,711,"[0.107, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.37,0.0,35.518,64%,0.177,0.041
+19,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.17,3207,"[0.166, 0.175]",0.083,168,"[0.064, 0.104]",0.127,3375,"[0.117, 0.137]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.39,0.0,3.102,64%,0.183,0.047
+21,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.185,5023,"[0.181, 0.188]",0.072,267,"[0.06, 0.085]",0.128,5290,"[0.122, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.47,0.0,0.05,64%,0.181,0.044
+21,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.191,10915,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.065,690,"[0.055, 0.075]",0.128,11605,"[0.123, 0.134]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.45,0.0,0.0,64%,0.177,0.048
+23,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,11593,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.065,726,"[0.054, 0.076]",0.129,12319,"[0.123, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.52,0.0,0.0,64%,0.178,0.046
+23,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,4934,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.059,318,"[0.048, 0.07]",0.129,5252,"[0.123, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.47,0.0,0.0,64%,0.168,0.049
+23,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.172,681,"[0.164, 0.18]",0.086,31,"[0.055, 0.127]",0.129,712,"[0.112, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.48,0.0,12.056,64%,0.198,0.047
+23,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot),0.167,934,"[0.157, 0.176]",0.092,59,"[0.06, 0.13]",0.129,993,"[0.112, 0.149]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.51,0.0,9.055,64%,0.169,0.051
+23,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.185,477,"[0.172, 0.199]",0.073,54,"[0.053, 0.096]",0.129,531,"[0.116, 0.143]",Yes,<0.001,—,—,0.0,5.303,64%,0.148,0.06
+23,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,6468,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.065,411,"[0.053, 0.077]",0.129,6879,"[0.123, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.51,0.0,0.0,64%,0.179,0.047
+29,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.181,4821,"[0.176, 0.185]",0.08,258,"[0.063, 0.098]",0.13,5079,"[0.122, 0.14]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.57,0.0,0.0,64%,0.176,0.044
+29,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.062,310,"[0.051, 0.073]",0.13,4930,"[0.125, 0.136]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.58,0.0,0.0,64%,0.182,0.046
+31,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.167,934,"[0.157, 0.176]",0.095,59,"[0.066, 0.131]",0.131,993,"[0.115, 0.149]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.54,0.0,4.202,64%,0.168,0.05
+31,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.2,1848,"[0.195, 0.205]",0.062,101,"[0.048, 0.078]",0.131,1949,"[0.124, 0.139]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.61,0.0,0.0,64%,0.165,0.044
+33,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.197,680,"[0.185, 0.21]",0.069,31,"[0.052, 0.09]",0.133,711,"[0.122, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.69,0.0,0.15,64%,0.17,0.035
+34,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.165,934,"[0.158, 0.171]",0.105,59,"[0.068, 0.149]",0.135,993,"[0.116, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.69,0.0,3.202,63%,0.164,0.045
+34,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.201,6468,"[0.198, 0.204]",0.069,411,"[0.058, 0.08]",0.135,6879,"[0.129, 0.141]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.82,0.0,0.0,63%,0.174,0.041
+34,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.198,2039,"[0.191, 0.205]",0.072,98,"[0.055, 0.092]",0.135,2137,"[0.126, 0.146]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.80,0.0,0.0,63%,0.185,0.035
+37,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.197,4934,"[0.193, 0.201]",0.075,318,"[0.06, 0.091]",0.136,5252,"[0.128, 0.144]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.88,0.0,0.0,63%,0.161,0.041
+37,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.208,2769,"[0.201, 0.215]",0.065,179,"[0.051, 0.08]",0.136,2948,"[0.128, 0.144]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.84,0.0,0.0,63%,0.171,0.043
+37,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.179]",0.099,59,"[0.068, 0.136]",0.136,993,"[0.12, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.73,0.0,0.4,63%,0.163,0.045
+40,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad),0.176,6468,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.098,411,"[0.085, 0.111]",0.137,6879,"[0.13, 0.144]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.87,0.0,0.0,63%,0.172,0.039
+40,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.099,131,"[0.074, 0.124]",0.137,1982,"[0.124, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.80,0.0,0.3,63%,0.182,0.034
+40,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.215,6434,"[0.211, 0.219]",0.058,379,"[0.048, 0.069]",0.137,6813,"[0.131, 0.143]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.88,0.0,0.0,63%,0.17,0.04
+43,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,3207,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.103,168,"[0.08, 0.128]",0.138,3375,"[0.127, 0.151]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.87,0.0,0.0,63%,0.171,0.035
+44,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.191,680,"[0.178, 0.204]",0.087,31,"[0.058, 0.125]",0.139,711,"[0.122, 0.158]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.81,0.0,0.0,63%,0.164,0.029
+44,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.215,6434,"[0.212, 0.218]",0.064,379,"[0.052, 0.075]",0.139,6813,"[0.133, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.0,63%,0.168,0.037
+44,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,680,"[0.164, 0.183]",0.105,31,"[0.055, 0.173]",0.139,711,"[0.114, 0.173]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.71,0.0,3.952,63%,0.164,0.029
+47,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.215,1848,"[0.209, 0.221]",0.065,101,"[0.05, 0.082]",0.14,1949,"[0.132, 0.149]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.93,0.0,0.0,63%,0.156,0.035
+48,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.085,66,"[0.066, 0.105]",0.141,995,"[0.131, 0.152]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.0,62%,0.174,0.028
+49,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.188,922,"[0.183, 0.194]",0.095,65,"[0.068, 0.126]",0.142,987,"[0.128, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.91,0.0,0.05,62%,0.183,0.03
+49,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.218]",0.074,118,"[0.056, 0.094]",0.142,1387,"[0.132, 0.153]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.139,0.042
+51,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot),0.196,1835,"[0.191, 0.2]",0.09,120,"[0.067, 0.114]",0.143,1955,"[0.131, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.93,0.0,0.0,62%,0.17,0.036
+51,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.177]",0.113,131,"[0.09, 0.135]",0.143,1982,"[0.132, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,62%,0.176,0.028
+53,ForecastBench,Mistral,Magistral-Medium-2506 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.196,1361,"[0.188, 0.204]",0.092,62,"[0.072, 0.115]",0.144,1423,"[0.134, 0.156]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.97,0.0,0.0,62%,0.171,0.028
 53,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.19,1269,"[0.182, 0.198]",0.099,118,"[0.074, 0.126]",0.144,1387,"[0.131, 0.158]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,62%,0.137,0.04
-55,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.219,6468,"[0.215, 0.223]",0.07,411,"[0.057, 0.084]",0.145,6879,"[0.138, 0.152]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.164,0.031
-55,ForecastBench,Mistral,Magistral-Medium-2506 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.196,1361,"[0.188, 0.205]",0.094,60,"[0.073, 0.117]",0.145,1421,"[0.134, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,62%,0.17,0.027
-57,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad),0.194,6468,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.1,411,"[0.086, 0.116]",0.147,6879,"[0.14, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.162,0.029
-57,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad),0.197,1849,"[0.189, 0.205]",0.098,119,"[0.076, 0.122]",0.147,1968,"[0.135, 0.16]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.154,0.034
-59,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.211,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.086,120,"[0.065, 0.11]",0.148,1955,"[0.137, 0.161]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.164,0.031
-59,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.218,2039,"[0.212, 0.225]",0.078,96,"[0.06, 0.098]",0.148,2135,"[0.138, 0.159]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.173,0.023
-61,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (zero shot with crowd forecast with web search),0.188,922,"[0.179, 0.197]",0.11,65,"[0.069, 0.16]",0.149,987,"[0.128, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.1,61%,0.175,0.023
-62,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,11590,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.052,723,"[0.042, 0.061]",0.151,12313,"[0.146, 0.156]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.156,0.025
-62,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot),0.165,680,"[0.157, 0.173]",0.137,30,"[0.056, 0.21]",0.151,710,"[0.11, 0.188]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.86,0.15,5.253,61%,0.152,0.017
-62,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.209,1269,"[0.2, 0.219]",0.092,118,"[0.071, 0.116]",0.151,1387,"[0.139, 0.164]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.131,0.034
-62,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.207,1269,"[0.198, 0.215]",0.095,118,"[0.068, 0.125]",0.151,1387,"[0.136, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.131,0.034
-66,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot),0.183,6468,"[0.181, 0.186]",0.121,411,"[0.104, 0.14]",0.152,6879,"[0.143, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.157,0.024
-66,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot),0.193,6468,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.11,411,"[0.093, 0.129]",0.152,6879,"[0.143, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.157,0.024
-68,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.225,1269,"[0.215, 0.235]",0.081,118,"[0.058, 0.108]",0.153,1387,"[0.141, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.128,0.031
-68,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad),0.173,680,"[0.164, 0.183]",0.133,30,"[0.078, 0.2]",0.153,710,"[0.125, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.0,61%,0.15,0.015
-68,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot),0.181,4821,"[0.176, 0.185]",0.126,256,"[0.1, 0.154]",0.153,5077,"[0.14, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.153,0.021
-71,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad),0.175,4141,"[0.169, 0.181]",0.133,226,"[0.106, 0.161]",0.154,4367,"[0.14, 0.168]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.153,0.021
-71,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot),0.174,680,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.134,30,"[0.066, 0.2]",0.154,710,"[0.12, 0.187]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.91,0.0,1.451,61%,0.149,0.014
-71,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.17,3207,"[0.166, 0.175]",0.139,167,"[0.107, 0.172]",0.154,3374,"[0.138, 0.172]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.155,0.019
-74,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.212,1269,"[0.202, 0.222]",0.099,118,"[0.075, 0.123]",0.155,1387,"[0.142, 0.168]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.126,0.029
-75,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.229,3083,"[0.224, 0.235]",0.086,216,"[0.068, 0.108]",0.158,3299,"[0.148, 0.169]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.139,0.021
-75,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.23,4378,"[0.226, 0.235]",0.087,250,"[0.072, 0.102]",0.158,4628,"[0.151, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.144,0.019
-75,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.199,1269,"[0.192, 0.207]",0.116,118,"[0.09, 0.143]",0.158,1387,"[0.144, 0.172]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.124,0.026
-75,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.201,4931,"[0.197, 0.205]",0.114,317,"[0.099, 0.129]",0.158,5248,"[0.15, 0.165]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.139,0.02
-79,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.191,10912,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.127,687,"[0.116, 0.139]",0.159,11599,"[0.153, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.146,0.017
-79,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot),0.158,680,"[0.148, 0.167]",0.159,30,"[0.109, 0.218]",0.159,710,"[0.134, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,60%,0.144,0.009
-79,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.098,118,"[0.079, 0.121]",0.159,1387,"[0.148, 0.171]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.122,0.025
-79,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot),0.193,3698,"[0.189, 0.197]",0.125,245,"[0.107, 0.144]",0.159,3943,"[0.149, 0.169]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.151,0.018
-79,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (scratchpad with crowd forecast with web search),0.193,922,"[0.183, 0.203]",0.125,65,"[0.091, 0.162]",0.159,987,"[0.141, 0.178]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.166,0.014
-84,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,3207,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.146,167,"[0.113, 0.179]",0.16,3374,"[0.143, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.15,0.014
-84,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.224,2172,"[0.216, 0.231]",0.096,165,"[0.074, 0.121]",0.16,2337,"[0.148, 0.173]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.13,0.021
-84,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.122,310,"[0.105, 0.139]",0.16,4930,"[0.152, 0.169]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.153,0.016
-84,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.193,11590,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.127,723,"[0.113, 0.142]",0.16,12313,"[0.153, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.147,0.016
-84,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.19,1269,"[0.182, 0.198]",0.129,118,"[0.098, 0.16]",0.16,1387,"[0.144, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.122,0.025
-89,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.2,1848,"[0.195, 0.205]",0.121,101,"[0.09, 0.157]",0.161,1949,"[0.145, 0.178]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.136,0.015
-89,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot),0.153,680,"[0.144, 0.162]",0.17,30,"[0.068, 0.274]",0.161,710,"[0.109, 0.214]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.87,0.3,5.053,60%,0.141,0.007
-89,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.212,1269,"[0.203, 0.221]",0.11,118,"[0.084, 0.137]",0.161,1387,"[0.147, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.12,0.023
-89,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (scratchpad with web search),0.193,922,"[0.183, 0.203]",0.13,65,"[0.098, 0.165]",0.161,987,"[0.144, 0.179]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.163,0.011
-93,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (zero shot with web search),0.188,922,"[0.179, 0.197]",0.136,65,"[0.089, 0.185]",0.162,987,"[0.138, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,60%,0.163,0.01
-94,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.238,1269,"[0.231, 0.245]",0.088,118,"[0.065, 0.112]",0.163,1387,"[0.151, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.119,0.022
-94,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad),0.188,922,"[0.183, 0.194]",0.138,65,"[0.103, 0.171]",0.163,987,"[0.145, 0.18]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.161,0.009
-96,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.214,1269,"[0.205, 0.222]",0.114,118,"[0.088, 0.139]",0.164,1387,"[0.15, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.118,0.021
-97,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.157,680,"[0.148, 0.165]",0.173,30,"[0.097, 0.26]",0.165,710,"[0.126, 0.208]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.96,0.0,0.2,59%,0.138,0.003
-97,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.199,1269,"[0.192, 0.207]",0.13,118,"[0.098, 0.164]",0.165,1387,"[0.148, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.117,0.02
-97,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.199,4931,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.131,317,"[0.113, 0.149]",0.165,5248,"[0.156, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.132,0.013
-100,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.219,6468,"[0.215, 0.223]",0.114,411,"[0.098, 0.131]",0.166,6879,"[0.158, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.009
-101,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.168,680,"[0.159, 0.177]",0.166,30,"[0.104, 0.239]",0.167,710,"[0.136, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,59%,0.136,0.001
-101,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad),0.185,5020,"[0.181, 0.188]",0.149,265,"[0.131, 0.169]",0.167,5285,"[0.158, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.006
-101,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.234,1269,"[0.225, 0.244]",0.099,118,"[0.072, 0.128]",0.167,1387,"[0.153, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.115,0.018
-104,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.212,1269,"[0.202, 0.222]",0.127,118,"[0.096, 0.158]",0.169,1387,"[0.153, 0.186]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-104,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.119,118,"[0.093, 0.145]",0.169,1387,"[0.156, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-104,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.223]",0.123,118,"[0.095, 0.15]",0.169,1387,"[0.155, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-104,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.239,1269,"[0.228, 0.25]",0.099,118,"[0.067, 0.135]",0.169,1387,"[0.153, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-104,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.205,1269,"[0.196, 0.214]",0.134,118,"[0.104, 0.164]",0.169,1387,"[0.154, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+53,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad),0.174,3698,"[0.171, 0.177]",0.114,245,"[0.098, 0.129]",0.144,3943,"[0.136, 0.152]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.97,0.0,0.0,62%,0.166,0.033
+56,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.219,6468,"[0.215, 0.222]",0.07,411,"[0.058, 0.084]",0.145,6879,"[0.138, 0.151]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,62%,0.164,0.031
+57,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad),0.194,6468,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.1,411,"[0.085, 0.115]",0.147,6879,"[0.139, 0.154]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,62%,0.162,0.029
+57,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad),0.197,1849,"[0.189, 0.205]",0.098,119,"[0.075, 0.121]",0.147,1968,"[0.135, 0.16]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,62%,0.154,0.034
+59,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.211,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.086,120,"[0.064, 0.111]",0.148,1955,"[0.137, 0.161]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.164,0.031
+59,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.218,2039,"[0.212, 0.225]",0.077,98,"[0.059, 0.097]",0.148,2137,"[0.138, 0.158]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.173,0.023
+61,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (zero shot with crowd forecast with web search),0.188,922,"[0.179, 0.197]",0.11,65,"[0.069, 0.161]",0.149,987,"[0.128, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,61%,0.175,0.023
+62,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,11593,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.051,726,"[0.042, 0.061]",0.151,12319,"[0.146, 0.156]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.156,0.025
+62,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.207,1269,"[0.198, 0.215]",0.094,118,"[0.069, 0.123]",0.151,1387,"[0.137, 0.165]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.131,0.034
+62,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.209,1269,"[0.2, 0.219]",0.092,118,"[0.07, 0.116]",0.151,1387,"[0.138, 0.164]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.131,0.034
+65,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot),0.193,6468,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.11,411,"[0.092, 0.127]",0.152,6879,"[0.143, 0.16]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.157,0.024
+65,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad),0.173,680,"[0.164, 0.183]",0.13,31,"[0.077, 0.193]",0.152,711,"[0.125, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.92,0.0,0.0,61%,0.151,0.016
+65,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot),0.183,6468,"[0.181, 0.186]",0.121,411,"[0.104, 0.138]",0.152,6879,"[0.144, 0.161]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.157,0.024
+68,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.225,1269,"[0.214, 0.236]",0.081,118,"[0.058, 0.106]",0.153,1387,"[0.14, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.128,0.031
+68,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot),0.181,4821,"[0.176, 0.185]",0.125,258,"[0.1, 0.152]",0.153,5079,"[0.14, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.153,0.021
+68,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot),0.174,680,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.132,31,"[0.067, 0.196]",0.153,711,"[0.12, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.91,0.0,1.551,61%,0.15,0.015
+68,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot),0.165,680,"[0.157, 0.173]",0.142,31,"[0.065, 0.214]",0.153,711,"[0.115, 0.189]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.87,0.1,3.802,61%,0.15,0.015
+72,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad),0.175,4141,"[0.169, 0.181]",0.132,227,"[0.106, 0.163]",0.154,4368,"[0.14, 0.169]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.153,0.022
+72,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.17,3207,"[0.166, 0.175]",0.138,168,"[0.107, 0.173]",0.154,3375,"[0.138, 0.171]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.155,0.019
+74,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.212,1269,"[0.201, 0.221]",0.099,118,"[0.076, 0.123]",0.155,1387,"[0.142, 0.169]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.126,0.029
+75,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot),0.158,680,"[0.148, 0.168]",0.156,31,"[0.108, 0.21]",0.157,711,"[0.132, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,60%,0.146,0.011
+76,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.229,3086,"[0.224, 0.235]",0.086,217,"[0.067, 0.106]",0.158,3303,"[0.148, 0.168]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.14,0.021
+76,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.199,1269,"[0.191, 0.207]",0.116,118,"[0.09, 0.144]",0.158,1387,"[0.144, 0.172]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.124,0.026
+76,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.23,4378,"[0.226, 0.235]",0.086,251,"[0.072, 0.102]",0.158,4629,"[0.151, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.144,0.019
+76,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.201,4934,"[0.197, 0.205]",0.115,318,"[0.1, 0.131]",0.158,5252,"[0.15, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.139,0.019
+80,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (scratchpad with crowd forecast with web search),0.192,922,"[0.183, 0.202]",0.125,65,"[0.09, 0.162]",0.159,987,"[0.141, 0.178]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.166,0.014
+80,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.22,1269,"[0.211, 0.228]",0.098,118,"[0.077, 0.12]",0.159,1387,"[0.147, 0.171]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.122,0.025
+80,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot),0.193,3698,"[0.188, 0.197]",0.125,245,"[0.106, 0.144]",0.159,3943,"[0.149, 0.169]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.151,0.018
+83,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.19,1269,"[0.182, 0.198]",0.129,118,"[0.098, 0.161]",0.16,1387,"[0.143, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.122,0.025
+83,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.224,2174,"[0.216, 0.231]",0.096,165,"[0.071, 0.123]",0.16,2339,"[0.146, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.13,0.021
+83,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.193,11593,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.128,726,"[0.114, 0.141]",0.16,12319,"[0.154, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.146,0.015
+83,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.122,310,"[0.106, 0.137]",0.16,4930,"[0.152, 0.168]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.153,0.016
+83,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.191,10915,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.128,690,"[0.116, 0.14]",0.16,11605,"[0.154, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.146,0.016
+83,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.2,1848,"[0.195, 0.205]",0.121,101,"[0.09, 0.155]",0.16,1949,"[0.145, 0.178]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.136,0.015
+83,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,3207,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.146,168,"[0.115, 0.179]",0.16,3375,"[0.144, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.15,0.014
+90,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot),0.153,680,"[0.144, 0.162]",0.169,31,"[0.067, 0.266]",0.161,711,"[0.11, 0.21]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.88,0.25,4.902,60%,0.142,0.007
+90,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.212,1269,"[0.202, 0.221]",0.11,118,"[0.083, 0.138]",0.161,1387,"[0.147, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.12,0.023
+90,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (scratchpad with web search),0.192,922,"[0.183, 0.202]",0.13,65,"[0.096, 0.162]",0.161,987,"[0.143, 0.178]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.163,0.011
+93,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.157,680,"[0.148, 0.166]",0.168,31,"[0.094, 0.248]",0.162,711,"[0.125, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.3,60%,0.141,0.006
+93,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (zero shot with web search),0.188,922,"[0.179, 0.197]",0.135,65,"[0.09, 0.187]",0.162,987,"[0.139, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.05,60%,0.163,0.01
+95,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.238,1269,"[0.231, 0.245]",0.088,118,"[0.064, 0.112]",0.163,1387,"[0.151, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.119,0.022
+95,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad),0.188,922,"[0.183, 0.194]",0.138,65,"[0.102, 0.175]",0.163,987,"[0.145, 0.181]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.161,0.009
+97,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.214,1269,"[0.205, 0.222]",0.114,118,"[0.09, 0.138]",0.164,1387,"[0.151, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.118,0.021
+98,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.199,1269,"[0.191, 0.207]",0.13,118,"[0.097, 0.164]",0.165,1387,"[0.147, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.117,0.02
+98,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.199,4934,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.13,318,"[0.113, 0.149]",0.165,5252,"[0.156, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.132,0.013
+100,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.168,680,"[0.159, 0.177]",0.165,31,"[0.104, 0.235]",0.166,711,"[0.136, 0.201]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,59%,0.137,0.002
+100,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.219,6468,"[0.215, 0.222]",0.114,411,"[0.098, 0.13]",0.166,6879,"[0.158, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.009
+102,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad),0.185,5023,"[0.181, 0.188]",0.149,267,"[0.131, 0.169]",0.167,5290,"[0.157, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.006
+102,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.234,1269,"[0.225, 0.244]",0.099,118,"[0.072, 0.129]",0.167,1387,"[0.152, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.115,0.018
+104,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.212,1269,"[0.201, 0.221]",0.127,118,"[0.097, 0.159]",0.169,1387,"[0.154, 0.186]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+104,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.119,118,"[0.092, 0.147]",0.169,1387,"[0.156, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+104,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.223]",0.123,118,"[0.096, 0.151]",0.169,1387,"[0.155, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+104,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.239,1269,"[0.228, 0.25]",0.099,118,"[0.067, 0.136]",0.169,1387,"[0.152, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+104,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.205,1269,"[0.196, 0.213]",0.134,118,"[0.103, 0.167]",0.169,1387,"[0.153, 0.186]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
 104,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad),0.201,6468,"[0.198, 0.204]",0.136,411,"[0.123, 0.15]",0.169,6879,"[0.162, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.14,0.007
-104,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.233,1269,"[0.223, 0.243]",0.105,118,"[0.079, 0.135]",0.169,1387,"[0.155, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-104,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.198, 0.215]",0.132,118,"[0.1, 0.162]",0.169,1387,"[0.153, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-112,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot),0.216,6431,"[0.212, 0.219]",0.125,378,"[0.109, 0.143]",0.17,6809,"[0.162, 0.179]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.137,0.006
-113,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.241,1269,"[0.228, 0.254]",0.102,118,"[0.074, 0.135]",0.171,1387,"[0.156, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.11,0.013
-113,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad),0.211,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.13,120,"[0.11, 0.152]",0.171,1955,"[0.159, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.008
-115,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot),0.198,2039,"[0.192, 0.206]",0.146,96,"[0.107, 0.189]",0.172,2135,"[0.152, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.149,-0.002
-115,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot),0.23,4378,"[0.226, 0.235]",0.114,250,"[0.097, 0.134]",0.172,4628,"[0.164, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.13,0.005
-115,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.212,1269,"[0.203, 0.221]",0.132,118,"[0.099, 0.164]",0.172,1387,"[0.155, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.11,0.013
-115,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.209,1269,"[0.2, 0.219]",0.135,118,"[0.105, 0.166]",0.172,1387,"[0.157, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.109,0.012
-119,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.115,118,"[0.094, 0.135]",0.173,1387,"[0.161, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.109,0.012
-120,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.143,118,"[0.117, 0.172]",0.175,1387,"[0.162, 0.19]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.106,0.009
-121,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.197,4931,"[0.193, 0.2]",0.156,317,"[0.134, 0.179]",0.176,5248,"[0.166, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.121,0.001
-121,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,680,"[0.184, 0.215]",0.152,30,"[0.099, 0.213]",0.176,710,"[0.148, 0.207]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.127,-0.008
-121,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.215,1848,"[0.209, 0.221]",0.137,101,"[0.106, 0.17]",0.176,1949,"[0.16, 0.192]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.12,-0.001
-121,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Naive Forecaster,0.299,11590,"[0.294, 0.303]",0.052,723,"[0.043, 0.062]",0.176,12313,"[0.17, 0.181]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.131,0.0
-121,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.205,1269,"[0.196, 0.214]",0.147,118,"[0.112, 0.182]",0.176,1387,"[0.158, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.106,0.009
-126,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad),0.172,681,"[0.163, 0.18]",0.182,30,"[0.117, 0.257]",0.177,711,"[0.144, 0.215]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.15,-0.001
-126,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad),0.214,1269,"[0.205, 0.222]",0.141,118,"[0.113, 0.168]",0.177,1387,"[0.163, 0.191]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
-126,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.224,2172,"[0.216, 0.231]",0.13,165,"[0.099, 0.164]",0.177,2337,"[0.161, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.113,0.003
-126,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.218]",0.143,118,"[0.115, 0.171]",0.177,1387,"[0.162, 0.192]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.105,0.008
-126,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.158,66,"[0.123, 0.192]",0.177,995,"[0.16, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.137,-0.008
-126,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.228,1269,"[0.221, 0.235]",0.127,118,"[0.096, 0.158]",0.177,1387,"[0.162, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
-126,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.225,1269,"[0.215, 0.235]",0.129,118,"[0.093, 0.165]",0.177,1387,"[0.158, 0.196]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
-133,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot),0.215,6431,"[0.212, 0.218]",0.141,378,"[0.124, 0.159]",0.178,6809,"[0.169, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.129,-0.001
-134,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.15,118,"[0.125, 0.177]",0.179,1387,"[0.165, 0.193]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.103,0.005
-135,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot),0.197,680,"[0.185, 0.209]",0.163,30,"[0.102, 0.23]",0.18,710,"[0.148, 0.215]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.123,-0.012
-136,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.232,1269,"[0.223, 0.243]",0.131,118,"[0.104, 0.16]",0.182,1387,"[0.167, 0.197]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.1,0.003
-137,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.253]",0.125,118,"[0.096, 0.154]",0.183,1387,"[0.169, 0.199]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.098,0.001
-138,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.238,1269,"[0.226, 0.249]",0.13,118,"[0.096, 0.168]",0.184,1387,"[0.166, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.098,0.0
-138,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.201,4931,"[0.197, 0.205]",0.166,317,"[0.149, 0.184]",0.184,5248,"[0.175, 0.193]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.113,-0.006
-140,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.223]",0.156,118,"[0.123, 0.188]",0.185,1387,"[0.169, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001
-141,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.259]",0.123,120,"[0.086, 0.165]",0.186,1955,"[0.167, 0.209]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.126,-0.007
-141,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot),0.21,1269,"[0.202, 0.218]",0.162,118,"[0.132, 0.19]",0.186,1387,"[0.17, 0.2]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001
-143,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) geometric mean with news",0.254,1269,"[0.247, 0.261]",0.12,118,"[0.094, 0.145]",0.187,1387,"[0.173, 0.2]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.095,-0.002
-143,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.232,1269,"[0.223, 0.243]",0.143,118,"[0.113, 0.173]",0.187,1387,"[0.172, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.094,-0.003
-143,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.218]",0.163,118,"[0.133, 0.194]",0.187,1387,"[0.171, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.095,-0.002
+104,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.233,1269,"[0.224, 0.243]",0.105,118,"[0.078, 0.136]",0.169,1387,"[0.155, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+104,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.198, 0.215]",0.132,118,"[0.101, 0.161]",0.169,1387,"[0.153, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+112,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot),0.215,6434,"[0.211, 0.219]",0.125,379,"[0.108, 0.142]",0.17,6813,"[0.162, 0.179]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.137,0.006
+112,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad),0.211,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.13,120,"[0.109, 0.153]",0.17,1955,"[0.159, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.008
+114,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.241,1269,"[0.228, 0.255]",0.102,118,"[0.072, 0.136]",0.171,1387,"[0.155, 0.19]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.11,0.013
+115,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot),0.23,4378,"[0.226, 0.235]",0.114,251,"[0.097, 0.133]",0.172,4629,"[0.163, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.13,0.005
+115,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.115,118,"[0.094, 0.137]",0.172,1387,"[0.162, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.109,0.012
+115,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.212,1269,"[0.202, 0.221]",0.131,118,"[0.102, 0.163]",0.172,1387,"[0.156, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.11,0.013
+115,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.209,1269,"[0.2, 0.219]",0.135,118,"[0.106, 0.165]",0.172,1387,"[0.157, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.109,0.012
+119,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot),0.198,2039,"[0.191, 0.205]",0.152,98,"[0.111, 0.199]",0.175,2137,"[0.155, 0.199]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.146,-0.005
+119,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad),0.172,681,"[0.164, 0.18]",0.178,31,"[0.116, 0.252]",0.175,712,"[0.144, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.152,0.001
+119,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,680,"[0.185, 0.214]",0.152,31,"[0.1, 0.211]",0.175,711,"[0.15, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.128,-0.008
+119,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.143,118,"[0.114, 0.171]",0.175,1387,"[0.16, 0.19]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.106,0.009
+123,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Naive Forecaster,0.299,11593,"[0.294, 0.303]",0.052,726,"[0.043, 0.062]",0.176,12319,"[0.17, 0.181]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.131,0.0
+123,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.215,1848,"[0.209, 0.221]",0.137,101,"[0.104, 0.17]",0.176,1949,"[0.159, 0.193]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.12,-0.001
+123,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.205,1269,"[0.196, 0.213]",0.147,118,"[0.112, 0.182]",0.176,1387,"[0.158, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.106,0.009
+126,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.228,1269,"[0.221, 0.236]",0.127,118,"[0.097, 0.158]",0.177,1387,"[0.162, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
+126,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad),0.214,1269,"[0.205, 0.222]",0.141,118,"[0.113, 0.167]",0.177,1387,"[0.163, 0.191]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
+126,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.224,2174,"[0.216, 0.231]",0.13,165,"[0.098, 0.167]",0.177,2339,"[0.16, 0.196]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.113,0.003
+126,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.218]",0.143,118,"[0.115, 0.17]",0.177,1387,"[0.162, 0.191]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.105,0.008
+126,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.158,66,"[0.126, 0.192]",0.177,995,"[0.161, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.137,-0.008
+126,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.197,4934,"[0.193, 0.201]",0.157,318,"[0.135, 0.181]",0.177,5252,"[0.166, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.12,0.001
+126,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.225,1269,"[0.214, 0.236]",0.129,118,"[0.094, 0.165]",0.177,1387,"[0.159, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
+133,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot),0.215,6434,"[0.212, 0.218]",0.14,379,"[0.123, 0.159]",0.178,6813,"[0.169, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.129,-0.001
+134,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.15,118,"[0.123, 0.177]",0.179,1387,"[0.164, 0.193]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.103,0.005
+135,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.232,1269,"[0.222, 0.242]",0.131,118,"[0.103, 0.16]",0.182,1387,"[0.166, 0.197]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.1,0.003
+136,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.253]",0.125,118,"[0.098, 0.152]",0.183,1387,"[0.168, 0.198]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.098,0.001
+137,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.201,4934,"[0.197, 0.205]",0.167,318,"[0.15, 0.185]",0.184,5252,"[0.175, 0.193]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.113,-0.007
+137,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.237,1269,"[0.226, 0.249]",0.13,118,"[0.094, 0.166]",0.184,1387,"[0.165, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.098,0.0
+139,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.223]",0.156,118,"[0.124, 0.187]",0.185,1387,"[0.169, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001
+140,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.259]",0.123,120,"[0.084, 0.162]",0.186,1955,"[0.166, 0.207]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.126,-0.007
+140,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.218]",0.163,118,"[0.132, 0.194]",0.186,1387,"[0.17, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.095,-0.002
+140,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.218]",0.162,118,"[0.134, 0.189]",0.186,1387,"[0.171, 0.2]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001
+143,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) geometric mean with news",0.254,1269,"[0.246, 0.261]",0.119,118,"[0.094, 0.144]",0.187,1387,"[0.173, 0.2]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.095,-0.002
+143,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.232,1269,"[0.222, 0.242]",0.142,118,"[0.113, 0.173]",0.187,1387,"[0.171, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.094,-0.003
+143,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot),0.197,680,"[0.185, 0.21]",0.177,31,"[0.112, 0.246]",0.187,711,"[0.154, 0.222]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.116,-0.019
 146,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) median with news",0.254,1269,"[0.246, 0.261]",0.123,118,"[0.097, 0.149]",0.188,1387,"[0.175, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
-146,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) geometric mean log odds with news",0.254,1269,"[0.247, 0.262]",0.122,118,"[0.096, 0.148]",0.188,1387,"[0.175, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
-146,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.226,1269,"[0.216, 0.237]",0.149,118,"[0.115, 0.184]",0.188,1387,"[0.17, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.094,-0.004
-146,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.259]",0.127,120,"[0.096, 0.16]",0.188,1955,"[0.173, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.124,-0.01
-146,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.219,1269,"[0.209, 0.229]",0.158,118,"[0.129, 0.187]",0.188,1387,"[0.173, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
-151,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.158,118,"[0.129, 0.188]",0.189,1387,"[0.175, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.092,-0.005
-151,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.265]",0.121,118,"[0.093, 0.147]",0.189,1387,"[0.174, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
-153,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.16,118,"[0.13, 0.192]",0.19,1387,"[0.174, 0.207]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.091,-0.006
-153,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.219,1269,"[0.21, 0.229]",0.16,118,"[0.125, 0.195]",0.19,1387,"[0.172, 0.208]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.092,-0.005
-155,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.223]",0.17,118,"[0.132, 0.208]",0.192,1387,"[0.174, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.089,-0.008
-155,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.241,1269,"[0.228, 0.254]",0.143,118,"[0.101, 0.183]",0.192,1387,"[0.17, 0.214]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.09,-0.007
-157,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.229,3083,"[0.224, 0.235]",0.157,216,"[0.134, 0.181]",0.193,3299,"[0.181, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.104,-0.015
-157,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.233,1269,"[0.223, 0.243]",0.153,118,"[0.116, 0.189]",0.193,1387,"[0.174, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.089,-0.009
-159,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.246,1269,"[0.233, 0.258]",0.142,118,"[0.109, 0.175]",0.194,1387,"[0.176, 0.211]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.088,-0.009
-159,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot),0.218,2039,"[0.212, 0.225]",0.169,96,"[0.137, 0.202]",0.194,2135,"[0.177, 0.211]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.127,-0.023
-161,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.229,1269,"[0.219, 0.239]",0.162,118,"[0.132, 0.191]",0.195,1387,"[0.18, 0.211]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.086,-0.011
-161,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot),0.17,680,"[0.158, 0.181]",0.22,30,"[0.132, 0.322]",0.195,710,"[0.151, 0.247]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.108,-0.027
-163,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.219,1269,"[0.209, 0.229]",0.174,118,"[0.144, 0.204]",0.196,1387,"[0.18, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.085,-0.012
-163,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.199,680,"[0.184, 0.215]",0.194,30,"[0.129, 0.266]",0.196,710,"[0.163, 0.234]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.107,-0.028
-165,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.228,1269,"[0.217, 0.238]",0.167,118,"[0.132, 0.201]",0.197,1387,"[0.18, 0.215]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013
-166,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.234,1269,"[0.225, 0.244]",0.161,118,"[0.126, 0.199]",0.198,1387,"[0.18, 0.217]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013
-167,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.262,4931,"[0.257, 0.267]",0.136,317,"[0.123, 0.148]",0.199,5248,"[0.192, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.098,-0.021
-168,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.253]",0.163,118,"[0.13, 0.196]",0.202,1387,"[0.185, 0.219]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.079,-0.018
-168,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.229,1269,"[0.219, 0.239]",0.176,118,"[0.141, 0.211]",0.202,1387,"[0.184, 0.221]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.079,-0.018
-170,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.182,118,"[0.153, 0.21]",0.206,1387,"[0.191, 0.22]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.076,-0.022
-170,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.238,1269,"[0.231, 0.245]",0.174,118,"[0.14, 0.209]",0.206,1387,"[0.188, 0.223]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.075,-0.022
-172,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.246,1269,"[0.233, 0.258]",0.172,118,"[0.135, 0.208]",0.209,1387,"[0.19, 0.228]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.072,-0.025
-173,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.252,1269,"[0.241, 0.262]",0.168,118,"[0.139, 0.196]",0.21,1387,"[0.195, 0.225]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.072,-0.025
-174,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.25,1269,"[0.237, 0.263]",0.177,118,"[0.136, 0.218]",0.213,1387,"[0.193, 0.236]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.068,-0.029
-175,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.239,1269,"[0.228, 0.25]",0.191,118,"[0.15, 0.233]",0.215,1387,"[0.194, 0.236]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.067,-0.03
-176,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.265]",0.18,118,"[0.148, 0.21]",0.218,1387,"[0.201, 0.234]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.063,-0.034
-177,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.262,4931,"[0.257, 0.267]",0.182,317,"[0.168, 0.195]",0.222,5248,"[0.214, 0.229]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.075,-0.044
-178,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.262,1269,"[0.253, 0.27]",0.2,118,"[0.17, 0.229]",0.231,1387,"[0.215, 0.246]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.051,-0.047
-178,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.275]",0.197,118,"[0.164, 0.229]",0.231,1387,"[0.214, 0.248]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.05,-0.047
-180,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.262,1269,"[0.253, 0.27]",0.202,118,"[0.171, 0.236]",0.232,1387,"[0.215, 0.249]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.049,-0.048
-181,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.275]",0.212,118,"[0.18, 0.245]",0.239,1387,"[0.221, 0.256]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.043,-0.054
-182,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.275,1269,"[0.265, 0.285]",0.21,118,"[0.174, 0.248]",0.242,1387,"[0.223, 0.261]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.039,-0.058
-183,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.275,1269,"[0.265, 0.285]",0.211,118,"[0.176, 0.244]",0.243,1387,"[0.225, 0.261]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.039,-0.058
-184,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.293,1269,"[0.282, 0.305]",0.195,118,"[0.163, 0.226]",0.244,1387,"[0.228, 0.26]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.038,-0.06
-185,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.282,1269,"[0.272, 0.292]",0.21,118,"[0.165, 0.25]",0.246,1387,"[0.224, 0.267]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.036,-0.062
-186,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.293,1269,"[0.282, 0.305]",0.205,118,"[0.175, 0.236]",0.249,1387,"[0.233, 0.266]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.032,-0.065
-187,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,11590,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,723,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,12313,"[0.25, 0.25]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.057,-0.074
-188,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.426,1269,"[0.412, 0.44]",0.122,118,"[0.088, 0.159]",0.274,1387,"[0.256, 0.294]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,48%,0.007,-0.09
-189,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.282,1269,"[0.272, 0.292]",0.299,118,"[0.256, 0.344]",0.291,1387,"[0.268, 0.313]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,-0.009,-0.106
-190,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.425,11590,"[0.417, 0.433]",0.167,723,"[0.142, 0.194]",0.296,12313,"[0.283, 0.31]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,0.01,-0.121
-191,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.426,1269,"[0.412, 0.44]",0.238,118,"[0.191, 0.288]",0.332,1387,"[0.308, 0.358]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.051,-0.148
-192,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.331,11590,"[0.326, 0.337]",0.335,723,"[0.314, 0.355]",0.333,12313,"[0.322, 0.343]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.026,-0.157
-193,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.575,11590,"[0.567, 0.583]",0.833,723,"[0.806, 0.858]",0.704,12313,"[0.69, 0.717]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,16%,-0.397,-0.528
+146,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) geometric mean log odds with news",0.254,1269,"[0.247, 0.262]",0.122,118,"[0.096, 0.148]",0.188,1387,"[0.175, 0.201]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
+146,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.226,1269,"[0.215, 0.237]",0.149,118,"[0.114, 0.187]",0.188,1387,"[0.169, 0.207]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.094,-0.004
+146,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.259]",0.127,120,"[0.094, 0.16]",0.188,1955,"[0.172, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.124,-0.01
+146,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.219,1269,"[0.209, 0.228]",0.157,118,"[0.128, 0.189]",0.188,1387,"[0.172, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
+146,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.265]",0.121,118,"[0.094, 0.148]",0.188,1387,"[0.174, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
+152,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.158,118,"[0.13, 0.188]",0.189,1387,"[0.174, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.092,-0.005
+153,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.22,1269,"[0.211, 0.228]",0.16,118,"[0.13, 0.19]",0.19,1387,"[0.173, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.091,-0.006
+153,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.219,1269,"[0.21, 0.228]",0.16,118,"[0.124, 0.197]",0.19,1387,"[0.17, 0.208]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.092,-0.005
+155,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.224]",0.17,118,"[0.133, 0.21]",0.192,1387,"[0.173, 0.213]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.089,-0.008
+155,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot),0.17,680,"[0.159, 0.181]",0.214,31,"[0.127, 0.311]",0.192,711,"[0.148, 0.241]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.112,-0.024
+155,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.241,1269,"[0.228, 0.255]",0.142,118,"[0.101, 0.184]",0.192,1387,"[0.171, 0.214]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.09,-0.007
+158,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.233,1269,"[0.224, 0.243]",0.152,118,"[0.116, 0.189]",0.193,1387,"[0.174, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.089,-0.009
+158,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.229,3086,"[0.224, 0.235]",0.157,217,"[0.134, 0.181]",0.193,3303,"[0.181, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.104,-0.014
+158,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot),0.218,2039,"[0.212, 0.225]",0.168,98,"[0.136, 0.204]",0.193,2137,"[0.177, 0.211]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.128,-0.023
+161,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.245,1269,"[0.233, 0.258]",0.142,118,"[0.107, 0.176]",0.194,1387,"[0.176, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.088,-0.009
+162,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.229,1269,"[0.219, 0.238]",0.162,118,"[0.132, 0.194]",0.195,1387,"[0.18, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.086,-0.011
+163,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.219,1269,"[0.209, 0.228]",0.174,118,"[0.144, 0.206]",0.196,1387,"[0.18, 0.213]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.085,-0.012
+164,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.228,1269,"[0.217, 0.238]",0.167,118,"[0.133, 0.2]",0.197,1387,"[0.18, 0.215]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013
+165,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.234,1269,"[0.225, 0.244]",0.161,118,"[0.124, 0.199]",0.198,1387,"[0.178, 0.217]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013
+166,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.199,680,"[0.185, 0.214]",0.2,31,"[0.134, 0.271]",0.199,711,"[0.166, 0.236]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.104,-0.032
+166,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.262,4934,"[0.257, 0.267]",0.136,318,"[0.123, 0.148]",0.199,5252,"[0.192, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.098,-0.021
+168,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.253]",0.162,118,"[0.13, 0.195]",0.202,1387,"[0.185, 0.219]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.079,-0.018
+168,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.229,1269,"[0.219, 0.238]",0.176,118,"[0.14, 0.212]",0.202,1387,"[0.183, 0.221]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.079,-0.018
+170,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.182,118,"[0.153, 0.209]",0.206,1387,"[0.191, 0.22]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.076,-0.022
+170,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.238,1269,"[0.231, 0.245]",0.174,118,"[0.14, 0.209]",0.206,1387,"[0.189, 0.223]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.075,-0.022
+172,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.245,1269,"[0.233, 0.258]",0.172,118,"[0.136, 0.21]",0.209,1387,"[0.189, 0.229]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.072,-0.025
+173,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.252,1269,"[0.241, 0.262]",0.168,118,"[0.14, 0.197]",0.21,1387,"[0.194, 0.226]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.072,-0.025
+174,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.25,1269,"[0.237, 0.263]",0.177,118,"[0.137, 0.22]",0.213,1387,"[0.192, 0.236]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.068,-0.029
+175,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.239,1269,"[0.228, 0.25]",0.191,118,"[0.15, 0.233]",0.215,1387,"[0.194, 0.237]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.067,-0.03
+176,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.265]",0.18,118,"[0.147, 0.211]",0.218,1387,"[0.201, 0.234]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.063,-0.034
+177,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.262,4934,"[0.257, 0.267]",0.181,318,"[0.167, 0.196]",0.222,5252,"[0.214, 0.229]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.075,-0.044
+178,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.262,1269,"[0.253, 0.269]",0.2,118,"[0.171, 0.23]",0.231,1387,"[0.216, 0.246]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.051,-0.047
+178,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.275]",0.197,118,"[0.166, 0.229]",0.231,1387,"[0.214, 0.248]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.05,-0.047
+180,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.262,1269,"[0.253, 0.269]",0.202,118,"[0.168, 0.235]",0.232,1387,"[0.214, 0.249]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.049,-0.048
+181,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.275]",0.212,118,"[0.181, 0.244]",0.239,1387,"[0.222, 0.255]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.043,-0.054
+182,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.275,1269,"[0.264, 0.285]",0.21,118,"[0.171, 0.248]",0.242,1387,"[0.223, 0.262]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.039,-0.058
+183,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.275,1269,"[0.264, 0.285]",0.21,118,"[0.176, 0.246]",0.243,1387,"[0.224, 0.261]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.039,-0.058
+184,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.293,1269,"[0.282, 0.304]",0.194,118,"[0.162, 0.226]",0.244,1387,"[0.227, 0.261]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.038,-0.06
+185,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.282,1269,"[0.271, 0.293]",0.209,118,"[0.168, 0.251]",0.246,1387,"[0.225, 0.267]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.036,-0.062
+186,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.293,1269,"[0.282, 0.304]",0.205,118,"[0.174, 0.234]",0.249,1387,"[0.232, 0.265]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.032,-0.065
+187,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,11593,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,726,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,12319,"[0.25, 0.25]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.057,-0.074
+188,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.426,1269,"[0.412, 0.44]",0.122,118,"[0.086, 0.159]",0.274,1387,"[0.255, 0.293]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,48%,0.007,-0.09
+189,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.282,1269,"[0.271, 0.293]",0.299,118,"[0.254, 0.343]",0.291,1387,"[0.268, 0.313]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,-0.009,-0.106
+190,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.426,11593,"[0.417, 0.434]",0.167,726,"[0.14, 0.191]",0.296,12319,"[0.283, 0.309]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,0.011,-0.121
+191,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.426,1269,"[0.412, 0.44]",0.238,118,"[0.191, 0.285]",0.332,1387,"[0.308, 0.357]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.051,-0.148
+192,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.331,11593,"[0.326, 0.336]",0.334,726,"[0.313, 0.354]",0.333,12319,"[0.321, 0.343]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.026,-0.157
+193,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.574,11593,"[0.566, 0.583]",0.833,726,"[0.809, 0.86]",0.704,12319,"[0.691, 0.717]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,16%,-0.397,-0.528