leaderboard tournament: automatic update html & csv files.

leaderboards/csv/leaderboard_tournament.csv

@@ -1,196 +1,196 @@
 Rank,Team,Model Organization,Model,Dataset,N dataset,Dataset 95% CI,Market,N market,Market 95% CI,Overall,N,Overall 95% CI,Supers > Forecaster?,p-val Supers > Forecaster?,Forecaster > Public?,p-val Forecaster > Public?,Pct times № 1,Pct times top 5%,x% oracle equiv,Peer,BSS
-1,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.152,477,"[0.142, 0.163]",0.032,54,"[0.013, 0.052]",0.092,531,"[0.081, 0.103]",—,—,Yes,<0.001,92.796,100.0,70%,0.185,0.097
-2,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.158,676,"[0.149, 0.167]",0.06,28,"[0.046, 0.076]",0.109,704,"[0.101, 0.119]",Yes,<0.01,Yes,<0.01,0.3,99.75,67%,0.193,0.059
-2,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.152,676,"[0.144, 0.162]",0.065,28,"[0.029, 0.101]",0.109,704,"[0.091, 0.127]",Likely,0.07,Likely,0.03,6.303,87.644,67%,0.193,0.06
-4,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.157,676,"[0.148, 0.166]",0.066,28,"[0.049, 0.087]",0.111,704,"[0.102, 0.122]",Yes,<0.01,Likely,0.01,0.05,93.647,67%,0.19,0.057
-5,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.048,129,"[0.038, 0.06]",0.112,1980,"[0.106, 0.118]",Yes,<0.001,Yes,<0.01,0.0,99.4,67%,0.208,0.059
-6,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.055,129,"[0.042, 0.069]",0.114,1980,"[0.108, 0.121]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.01,0.0,91.046,66%,0.205,0.056
-6,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.164,934,"[0.158, 0.171]",0.064,59,"[0.047, 0.083]",0.114,993,"[0.105, 0.124]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.02,0.0,85.393,66%,0.184,0.066
-8,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.176,6463,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.054,409,"[0.044, 0.064]",0.115,6872,"[0.11, 0.12]",Yes,<0.001,Yes,<0.01,0.0,93.697,66%,0.194,0.061
-9,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.174,4620,"[0.171, 0.177]",0.061,308,"[0.051, 0.073]",0.118,4928,"[0.112, 0.124]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.03,0.0,62.081,66%,0.195,0.058
-10,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.183,6463,"[0.181, 0.186]",0.057,409,"[0.046, 0.069]",0.12,6872,"[0.114, 0.126]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.07,0.0,21.761,65%,0.188,0.055
-11,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.175,4130,"[0.168, 0.181]",0.067,220,"[0.052, 0.083]",0.121,4350,"[0.113, 0.129]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.11,0.0,21.061,65%,0.187,0.054
-12,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.179]",0.072,59,"[0.054, 0.096]",0.123,993,"[0.112, 0.134]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.20,0.0,15.608,65%,0.176,0.057
-13,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.195,1835,"[0.191, 0.2]",0.052,120,"[0.04, 0.064]",0.124,1955,"[0.117, 0.13]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.20,0.0,2.351,65%,0.188,0.055
-13,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.17,3196,"[0.165, 0.175]",0.078,161,"[0.06, 0.101]",0.124,3357,"[0.115, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.26,0.0,7.704,65%,0.186,0.05
-13,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.194,6463,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.054,409,"[0.044, 0.066]",0.124,6872,"[0.119, 0.13]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.21,0.0,0.15,65%,0.184,0.051
-16,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.174,676,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.075,28,"[0.053, 0.11]",0.125,704,"[0.112, 0.142]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.32,0.0,11.956,65%,0.177,0.043
-16,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.172,677,"[0.163, 0.181]",0.079,29,"[0.051, 0.119]",0.125,706,"[0.111, 0.146]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.34,0.0,22.861,65%,0.207,0.051
-16,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.192,3698,"[0.188, 0.196]",0.057,243,"[0.046, 0.069]",0.125,3941,"[0.119, 0.131]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.24,0.0,0.0,65%,0.185,0.052
-19,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.168,676,"[0.159, 0.177]",0.084,28,"[0.058, 0.117]",0.126,704,"[0.112, 0.143]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.38,0.0,7.904,64%,0.176,0.042
-20,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,6463,"[0.19, 0.196]",0.062,409,"[0.051, 0.076]",0.128,6872,"[0.122, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.44,0.0,0.0,64%,0.18,0.048
-20,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.165,676,"[0.157, 0.172]",0.092,28,"[0.052, 0.157]",0.128,704,"[0.107, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.44,0.0,29.615,64%,0.174,0.04
-20,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.185,4780,"[0.181, 0.188]",0.071,258,"[0.059, 0.085]",0.128,5038,"[0.122, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.46,0.0,0.0,64%,0.18,0.045
-20,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.17,676,"[0.159, 0.182]",0.087,28,"[0.053, 0.134]",0.128,704,"[0.11, 0.154]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.46,0.0,12.256,64%,0.173,0.04
-20,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.192,10670,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.064,682,"[0.054, 0.076]",0.128,11352,"[0.123, 0.134]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.43,0.0,0.0,64%,0.177,0.048
-25,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.185,477,"[0.172, 0.199]",0.073,54,"[0.053, 0.096]",0.129,531,"[0.117, 0.142]",Yes,<0.001,—,—,0.0,3.452,64%,0.148,0.06
-25,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot),0.166,934,"[0.157, 0.176]",0.092,59,"[0.06, 0.131]",0.129,993,"[0.112, 0.149]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.52,0.0,8.154,64%,0.169,0.051
-25,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.18,4806,"[0.175, 0.185]",0.077,248,"[0.062, 0.096]",0.129,5054,"[0.12, 0.138]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.50,0.0,0.05,64%,0.178,0.045
-25,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,4697,"[0.196, 0.203]",0.058,317,"[0.047, 0.071]",0.129,5014,"[0.123, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.49,0.0,0.0,64%,0.167,0.049
-25,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,11346,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.064,713,"[0.053, 0.077]",0.129,12059,"[0.123, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.50,0.0,0.0,64%,0.178,0.047
-30,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.061,308,"[0.05, 0.073]",0.13,4928,"[0.124, 0.136]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.56,0.0,0.0,64%,0.183,0.046
-30,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.166,934,"[0.157, 0.176]",0.094,59,"[0.066, 0.128]",0.13,993,"[0.116, 0.148]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.55,0.0,3.802,64%,0.168,0.05
-32,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,1843,"[0.195, 0.204]",0.062,101,"[0.048, 0.078]",0.131,1944,"[0.124, 0.139]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.60,0.0,0.0,64%,0.165,0.044
-33,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,2029,"[0.191, 0.206]",0.069,88,"[0.052, 0.088]",0.134,2117,"[0.124, 0.144]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.76,0.0,0.0,63%,0.189,0.037
-33,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.197,676,"[0.185, 0.209]",0.07,28,"[0.052, 0.092]",0.134,704,"[0.123, 0.146]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.72,0.0,0.05,63%,0.168,0.034
-35,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.095,129,"[0.07, 0.12]",0.135,1980,"[0.122, 0.148]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.76,0.0,0.2,63%,0.185,0.035
-35,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.201,6463,"[0.198, 0.204]",0.068,409,"[0.057, 0.08]",0.135,6872,"[0.129, 0.141]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.81,0.0,0.0,63%,0.174,0.041
-35,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.164,934,"[0.158, 0.171]",0.105,59,"[0.067, 0.15]",0.135,993,"[0.116, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.69,0.0,2.651,63%,0.164,0.045
-35,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.179]",0.098,59,"[0.068, 0.138]",0.135,993,"[0.12, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.75,0.0,0.3,63%,0.163,0.045
-39,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad),0.176,6463,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.097,409,"[0.084, 0.111]",0.136,6872,"[0.129, 0.144]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.84,0.0,0.0,63%,0.172,0.039
-39,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.197,4697,"[0.194, 0.201]",0.074,317,"[0.059, 0.091]",0.136,5014,"[0.128, 0.144]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.89,0.0,0.0,63%,0.16,0.042
-39,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.207,2769,"[0.2, 0.214]",0.065,179,"[0.05, 0.079]",0.136,2948,"[0.128, 0.144]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.83,0.0,0.0,63%,0.171,0.043
-39,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.214,6197,"[0.211, 0.218]",0.058,378,"[0.047, 0.07]",0.136,6575,"[0.13, 0.142]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.85,0.0,0.0,63%,0.17,0.041
-43,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,3196,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.102,161,"[0.078, 0.129]",0.137,3357,"[0.125, 0.152]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.84,0.0,0.0,63%,0.173,0.036
-43,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.077,64,"[0.061, 0.094]",0.137,993,"[0.128, 0.146]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.85,0.0,0.05,63%,0.178,0.032
-45,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.214,6197,"[0.21, 0.217]",0.063,378,"[0.052, 0.076]",0.138,6575,"[0.132, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.92,0.0,0.0,63%,0.168,0.039
-46,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.214,1843,"[0.209, 0.22]",0.065,101,"[0.05, 0.082]",0.14,1944,"[0.132, 0.149]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.93,0.0,0.0,63%,0.156,0.035
-47,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.108,129,"[0.085, 0.131]",0.141,1980,"[0.129, 0.152]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.92,0.0,0.0,62%,0.179,0.03
-47,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.191,676,"[0.178, 0.204]",0.09,28,"[0.059, 0.132]",0.141,704,"[0.123, 0.163]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.85,0.0,0.0,63%,0.161,0.028
-47,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.188,922,"[0.183, 0.194]",0.095,65,"[0.068, 0.126]",0.141,987,"[0.128, 0.158]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.91,0.0,0.0,62%,0.183,0.03
-50,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,676,"[0.164, 0.183]",0.11,28,"[0.056, 0.182]",0.142,704,"[0.114, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.76,0.0,3.052,62%,0.16,0.027
-50,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.218]",0.074,118,"[0.056, 0.095]",0.142,1387,"[0.132, 0.154]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.139,0.042
-50,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad),0.174,3698,"[0.171, 0.177]",0.111,243,"[0.095, 0.127]",0.142,3941,"[0.135, 0.151]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.97,0.0,0.0,62%,0.167,0.034
-50,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot),0.195,1835,"[0.191, 0.2]",0.089,120,"[0.066, 0.112]",0.142,1955,"[0.13, 0.154]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.93,0.0,0.0,62%,0.17,0.036
-54,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.219,6463,"[0.215, 0.222]",0.068,409,"[0.055, 0.082]",0.143,6872,"[0.136, 0.151]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,62%,0.165,0.032
-55,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.19,1269,"[0.182, 0.197]",0.098,118,"[0.075, 0.125]",0.144,1387,"[0.131, 0.158]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,62%,0.137,0.04
-55,ForecastBench,Mistral,Magistral-Medium-2506 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.196,1353,"[0.188, 0.204]",0.092,57,"[0.071, 0.115]",0.144,1410,"[0.133, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.96,0.0,0.0,62%,0.173,0.028
-57,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad),0.194,6463,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.098,409,"[0.083, 0.115]",0.146,6872,"[0.138, 0.154]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.162,0.029
-58,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad),0.197,1849,"[0.188, 0.205]",0.098,119,"[0.074, 0.12]",0.147,1968,"[0.135, 0.159]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,62%,0.154,0.034
-59,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.21,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.086,120,"[0.064, 0.109]",0.148,1955,"[0.137, 0.161]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.164,0.031
-59,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.218,2029,"[0.212, 0.225]",0.077,88,"[0.058, 0.097]",0.148,2117,"[0.137, 0.158]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.176,0.023
-59,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.218,684,"[0.206, 0.231]",0.078,51,"[0.055, 0.103]",0.148,735,"[0.135, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,62%,0.169,0.031
-62,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (zero shot with crowd forecast with web search),0.188,922,"[0.179, 0.197]",0.11,65,"[0.068, 0.162]",0.149,987,"[0.128, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.0,61%,0.175,0.023
-63,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.207,1269,"[0.199, 0.215]",0.094,118,"[0.067, 0.124]",0.15,1387,"[0.136, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.131,0.034
-63,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.209,1269,"[0.199, 0.219]",0.092,118,"[0.071, 0.115]",0.15,1387,"[0.138, 0.163]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.131,0.034
-65,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,11346,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.051,713,"[0.042, 0.062]",0.151,12059,"[0.146, 0.156]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.156,0.025
-65,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot),0.183,6463,"[0.181, 0.186]",0.12,409,"[0.103, 0.139]",0.151,6872,"[0.143, 0.161]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.157,0.024
-65,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot),0.193,6463,"[0.19, 0.196]",0.108,409,"[0.091, 0.128]",0.151,6872,"[0.142, 0.161]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.158,0.025
-68,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot),0.18,4806,"[0.175, 0.185]",0.123,248,"[0.099, 0.153]",0.152,5054,"[0.14, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.154,0.022
-68,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.17,3196,"[0.165, 0.175]",0.135,161,"[0.103, 0.17]",0.152,3357,"[0.137, 0.171]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.158,0.021
-68,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad),0.175,4130,"[0.168, 0.181]",0.129,220,"[0.104, 0.16]",0.152,4350,"[0.139, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.155,0.023
-71,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot),0.165,676,"[0.157, 0.172]",0.142,28,"[0.055, 0.225]",0.153,704,"[0.109, 0.195]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.85,0.2,5.103,61%,0.148,0.015
-71,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.225,1269,"[0.215, 0.236]",0.081,118,"[0.058, 0.107]",0.153,1387,"[0.14, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.128,0.031
-73,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.212,1269,"[0.201, 0.222]",0.099,118,"[0.077, 0.122]",0.155,1387,"[0.143, 0.168]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.126,0.029
-74,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.226,2854,"[0.22, 0.232]",0.086,216,"[0.067, 0.107]",0.156,3070,"[0.146, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.14,0.024
-74,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot),0.192,3698,"[0.188, 0.196]",0.12,243,"[0.101, 0.14]",0.156,3941,"[0.146, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.153,0.02
-74,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad),0.173,676,"[0.164, 0.183]",0.138,28,"[0.079, 0.21]",0.156,704,"[0.126, 0.192]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,61%,0.146,0.012
-77,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot),0.174,676,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.139,28,"[0.067, 0.214]",0.157,704,"[0.12, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.91,0.0,1.601,60%,0.145,0.012
-77,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.23,4369,"[0.226, 0.234]",0.085,249,"[0.071, 0.101]",0.157,4618,"[0.15, 0.165]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.145,0.02
-79,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.199,1269,"[0.192, 0.207]",0.116,118,"[0.088, 0.143]",0.158,1387,"[0.143, 0.172]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.124,0.026
-79,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.201,4697,"[0.198, 0.206]",0.114,317,"[0.1, 0.128]",0.158,5014,"[0.15, 0.165]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.139,0.02
-79,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,3196,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.143,161,"[0.112, 0.179]",0.158,3357,"[0.142, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.152,0.015
-79,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (scratchpad with crowd forecast with web search),0.192,922,"[0.183, 0.202]",0.124,65,"[0.091, 0.165]",0.158,987,"[0.14, 0.179]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.166,0.014
-83,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.224,2170,"[0.216, 0.231]",0.095,165,"[0.072, 0.122]",0.159,2335,"[0.147, 0.173]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.13,0.021
-83,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.202]",0.119,308,"[0.103, 0.136]",0.159,4928,"[0.15, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.154,0.017
-83,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.193,11346,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.126,713,"[0.112, 0.14]",0.159,12059,"[0.152, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.147,0.016
-83,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.19,1269,"[0.182, 0.197]",0.129,118,"[0.099, 0.162]",0.159,1387,"[0.144, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.122,0.025
-83,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.192,10670,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.126,682,"[0.114, 0.139]",0.159,11352,"[0.153, 0.165]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.146,0.017
-83,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.098,118,"[0.078, 0.12]",0.159,1387,"[0.148, 0.17]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.122,0.025
-89,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.199,1843,"[0.195, 0.204]",0.121,101,"[0.09, 0.158]",0.16,1944,"[0.144, 0.179]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.136,0.015
-90,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (scratchpad with web search),0.192,922,"[0.183, 0.202]",0.13,65,"[0.097, 0.166]",0.161,987,"[0.143, 0.18]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.163,0.011
-90,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.212,1269,"[0.203, 0.222]",0.11,118,"[0.083, 0.138]",0.161,1387,"[0.147, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.12,0.023
-90,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (zero shot with web search),0.188,922,"[0.179, 0.197]",0.135,65,"[0.09, 0.188]",0.161,987,"[0.139, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,60%,0.163,0.01
-93,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot),0.158,676,"[0.149, 0.167]",0.167,28,"[0.111, 0.23]",0.162,704,"[0.134, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,60%,0.14,0.006
-94,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.238,1269,"[0.23, 0.246]",0.087,118,"[0.065, 0.114]",0.163,1387,"[0.151, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.119,0.022
-94,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.214,1269,"[0.205, 0.222]",0.113,118,"[0.088, 0.139]",0.163,1387,"[0.15, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.118,0.021
-94,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad),0.188,922,"[0.183, 0.194]",0.138,65,"[0.102, 0.172]",0.163,987,"[0.145, 0.181]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.161,0.009
-97,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.199,1269,"[0.192, 0.207]",0.129,118,"[0.097, 0.164]",0.164,1387,"[0.147, 0.181]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.117,0.02
-98,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.219,6463,"[0.215, 0.222]",0.111,409,"[0.095, 0.128]",0.165,6872,"[0.157, 0.173]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.143,0.01
-98,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot),0.152,676,"[0.144, 0.162]",0.178,28,"[0.06, 0.291]",0.165,704,"[0.106, 0.223]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.89,0.35,5.203,59%,0.137,0.003
-98,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.199,4697,"[0.196, 0.203]",0.13,317,"[0.112, 0.149]",0.165,5014,"[0.156, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.132,0.013
-101,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.234,1269,"[0.225, 0.244]",0.098,118,"[0.072, 0.129]",0.166,1387,"[0.153, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.115,0.018
-102,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad),0.185,4780,"[0.181, 0.188]",0.149,258,"[0.13, 0.169]",0.167,5038,"[0.157, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.141,0.006
-103,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad),0.201,6463,"[0.198, 0.204]",0.135,409,"[0.121, 0.149]",0.168,6872,"[0.161, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.141,0.008
-104,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.212,1269,"[0.201, 0.222]",0.126,118,"[0.097, 0.158]",0.169,1387,"[0.153, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-104,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.199, 0.215]",0.131,118,"[0.1, 0.162]",0.169,1387,"[0.153, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-104,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.223]",0.123,118,"[0.096, 0.152]",0.169,1387,"[0.154, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-104,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.239,1269,"[0.228, 0.249]",0.099,118,"[0.068, 0.135]",0.169,1387,"[0.153, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-104,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.205,1269,"[0.196, 0.214]",0.134,118,"[0.102, 0.165]",0.169,1387,"[0.153, 0.186]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-104,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.22,1269,"[0.211, 0.228]",0.118,118,"[0.091, 0.146]",0.169,1387,"[0.155, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-104,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.233,1269,"[0.224, 0.243]",0.105,118,"[0.077, 0.137]",0.169,1387,"[0.154, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
-104,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot),0.214,6197,"[0.211, 0.218]",0.125,378,"[0.109, 0.142]",0.169,6575,"[0.161, 0.179]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.137,0.008
-104,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.157,676,"[0.148, 0.166]",0.181,28,"[0.099, 0.274]",0.169,704,"[0.127, 0.218]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.97,0.0,0.45,59%,0.133,-0.001
-113,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad),0.21,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.13,120,"[0.109, 0.152]",0.17,1955,"[0.159, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.008
-113,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.168,676,"[0.159, 0.177]",0.173,28,"[0.106, 0.252]",0.17,704,"[0.136, 0.21]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,59%,0.131,-0.002
-115,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot),0.23,4369,"[0.226, 0.234]",0.112,249,"[0.095, 0.131]",0.171,4618,"[0.162, 0.181]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.132,0.007
-115,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.241,1269,"[0.229, 0.254]",0.101,118,"[0.072, 0.135]",0.171,1387,"[0.155, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.11,0.013
-117,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.209,1269,"[0.199, 0.219]",0.135,118,"[0.105, 0.165]",0.172,1387,"[0.157, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.109,0.012
-117,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.115,118,"[0.094, 0.135]",0.172,1387,"[0.162, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.109,0.012
-117,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.212,1269,"[0.203, 0.222]",0.131,118,"[0.101, 0.163]",0.172,1387,"[0.155, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.11,0.013
-120,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.149,64,"[0.117, 0.182]",0.173,993,"[0.156, 0.19]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.142,-0.004
-121,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.214,1843,"[0.209, 0.22]",0.136,101,"[0.107, 0.172]",0.175,1944,"[0.16, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.121,-0.001
-121,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.142,118,"[0.117, 0.17]",0.175,1387,"[0.161, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.106,0.009
-123,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.197,4697,"[0.194, 0.201]",0.155,317,"[0.134, 0.179]",0.176,5014,"[0.166, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.12,0.001
-123,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Naive Forecaster,0.299,11346,"[0.295, 0.304]",0.052,713,"[0.043, 0.062]",0.176,12059,"[0.171, 0.181]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.131,0.0
-123,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.205,1269,"[0.196, 0.214]",0.146,118,"[0.111, 0.183]",0.176,1387,"[0.157, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.106,0.009
-123,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad),0.172,677,"[0.163, 0.181]",0.18,29,"[0.114, 0.258]",0.176,706,"[0.142, 0.215]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,58%,0.157,0.0
-123,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.219]",0.143,118,"[0.116, 0.17]",0.176,1387,"[0.163, 0.19]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.105,0.008
-128,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad),0.214,1269,"[0.205, 0.222]",0.14,118,"[0.114, 0.169]",0.177,1387,"[0.163, 0.192]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
-128,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.224,2170,"[0.216, 0.231]",0.13,165,"[0.096, 0.166]",0.177,2335,"[0.16, 0.196]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.113,0.003
-128,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.225,1269,"[0.215, 0.236]",0.128,118,"[0.092, 0.166]",0.177,1387,"[0.158, 0.196]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
-128,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot),0.214,6197,"[0.21, 0.217]",0.14,378,"[0.123, 0.159]",0.177,6575,"[0.168, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.129,0.0
-128,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.228,1269,"[0.221, 0.236]",0.126,118,"[0.096, 0.156]",0.177,1387,"[0.162, 0.193]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
-133,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.15,118,"[0.122, 0.178]",0.179,1387,"[0.164, 0.193]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.103,0.005
-133,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot),0.199,2029,"[0.191, 0.206]",0.16,88,"[0.118, 0.21]",0.179,2117,"[0.158, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.144,-0.009
-133,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,676,"[0.185, 0.214]",0.158,28,"[0.105, 0.223]",0.179,704,"[0.15, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.123,-0.011
-136,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.232,1269,"[0.222, 0.242]",0.131,118,"[0.102, 0.16]",0.181,1387,"[0.166, 0.197]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.1,0.003
-137,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot),0.197,676,"[0.185, 0.209]",0.169,28,"[0.105, 0.243]",0.183,704,"[0.151, 0.219]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.118,-0.015
-137,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.253]",0.125,118,"[0.097, 0.156]",0.183,1387,"[0.169, 0.2]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.098,0.001
-139,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.201,4697,"[0.198, 0.206]",0.166,317,"[0.15, 0.184]",0.184,5014,"[0.175, 0.193]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.112,-0.006
-139,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.238,1269,"[0.226, 0.249]",0.13,118,"[0.095, 0.167]",0.184,1387,"[0.166, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.098,0.0
-141,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.223]",0.156,118,"[0.124, 0.187]",0.185,1387,"[0.169, 0.201]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001
-142,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.26]",0.122,120,"[0.083, 0.163]",0.186,1955,"[0.166, 0.207]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.126,-0.007
-142,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.219]",0.163,118,"[0.132, 0.194]",0.186,1387,"[0.171, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.095,-0.002
-142,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot),0.21,1269,"[0.201, 0.218]",0.161,118,"[0.132, 0.189]",0.186,1387,"[0.17, 0.201]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001
-145,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) geometric mean with news",0.254,1269,"[0.247, 0.261]",0.119,118,"[0.094, 0.145]",0.187,1387,"[0.174, 0.2]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.095,-0.002
-145,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.232,1269,"[0.222, 0.242]",0.142,118,"[0.112, 0.173]",0.187,1387,"[0.171, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.094,-0.003
-147,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) median with news",0.254,1269,"[0.246, 0.262]",0.123,118,"[0.097, 0.149]",0.188,1387,"[0.175, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
-147,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.226,1269,"[0.216, 0.237]",0.149,118,"[0.113, 0.185]",0.188,1387,"[0.169, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.094,-0.004
-147,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.26]",0.126,120,"[0.094, 0.16]",0.188,1955,"[0.172, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.124,-0.01
-147,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.219,1269,"[0.209, 0.229]",0.157,118,"[0.127, 0.187]",0.188,1387,"[0.172, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
-147,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) geometric mean log odds with news",0.255,1269,"[0.247, 0.262]",0.122,118,"[0.096, 0.148]",0.188,1387,"[0.175, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
-147,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.265]",0.12,118,"[0.093, 0.147]",0.188,1387,"[0.174, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
-153,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.22,1269,"[0.211, 0.228]",0.158,118,"[0.13, 0.19]",0.189,1387,"[0.174, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.092,-0.005
-154,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.219,1269,"[0.21, 0.229]",0.16,118,"[0.126, 0.195]",0.19,1387,"[0.172, 0.207]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.092,-0.005
-154,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.16,118,"[0.128, 0.192]",0.19,1387,"[0.174, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.091,-0.006
-156,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.226,2854,"[0.22, 0.232]",0.157,216,"[0.133, 0.182]",0.191,3070,"[0.179, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.105,-0.012
-157,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.241,1269,"[0.229, 0.254]",0.142,118,"[0.1, 0.184]",0.192,1387,"[0.169, 0.214]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.09,-0.007
-157,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.215,1269,"[0.207, 0.224]",0.169,118,"[0.13, 0.207]",0.192,1387,"[0.173, 0.211]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.089,-0.008
-159,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.246,1269,"[0.233, 0.258]",0.141,118,"[0.108, 0.175]",0.193,1387,"[0.177, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.088,-0.009
-159,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.233,1269,"[0.224, 0.243]",0.152,118,"[0.114, 0.191]",0.193,1387,"[0.174, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.089,-0.009
-161,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot),0.218,2029,"[0.212, 0.225]",0.171,88,"[0.139, 0.206]",0.194,2117,"[0.178, 0.213]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.129,-0.024
-162,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.229,1269,"[0.219, 0.238]",0.162,118,"[0.132, 0.193]",0.195,1387,"[0.18, 0.211]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.086,-0.011
-163,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.219,1269,"[0.209, 0.229]",0.174,118,"[0.143, 0.204]",0.196,1387,"[0.18, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.085,-0.012
-164,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.228,1269,"[0.217, 0.238]",0.166,118,"[0.134, 0.201]",0.197,1387,"[0.18, 0.215]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013
-164,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (scratchpad),0.218,684,"[0.206, 0.231]",0.175,51,"[0.139, 0.217]",0.197,735,"[0.177, 0.218]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.12,-0.018
-166,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.234,1269,"[0.225, 0.244]",0.161,118,"[0.123, 0.201]",0.198,1387,"[0.178, 0.218]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013
-166,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.261,4697,"[0.255, 0.266]",0.135,317,"[0.123, 0.148]",0.198,5014,"[0.192, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.098,-0.02
-168,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot),0.17,676,"[0.159, 0.182]",0.231,28,"[0.133, 0.346]",0.2,704,"[0.151, 0.258]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.101,-0.032
-169,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.199,676,"[0.185, 0.214]",0.202,28,"[0.134, 0.281]",0.201,704,"[0.167, 0.241]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.101,-0.032
-170,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.253]",0.162,118,"[0.129, 0.196]",0.202,1387,"[0.184, 0.219]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.079,-0.018
-170,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.229,1269,"[0.219, 0.238]",0.176,118,"[0.14, 0.21]",0.202,1387,"[0.184, 0.22]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.079,-0.018
-172,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.181,118,"[0.151, 0.209]",0.206,1387,"[0.19, 0.22]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.076,-0.022
-172,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.238,1269,"[0.23, 0.246]",0.174,118,"[0.139, 0.21]",0.206,1387,"[0.188, 0.224]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.075,-0.022
-174,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.246,1269,"[0.233, 0.258]",0.172,118,"[0.134, 0.21]",0.209,1387,"[0.189, 0.228]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.072,-0.025
-175,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.252,1269,"[0.241, 0.263]",0.167,118,"[0.139, 0.196]",0.21,1387,"[0.195, 0.225]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.072,-0.025
-176,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.25,1269,"[0.237, 0.263]",0.176,118,"[0.133, 0.218]",0.213,1387,"[0.191, 0.235]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.068,-0.029
-177,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.239,1269,"[0.228, 0.249]",0.19,118,"[0.149, 0.236]",0.215,1387,"[0.193, 0.238]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.067,-0.03
-178,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.265]",0.179,118,"[0.148, 0.211]",0.218,1387,"[0.201, 0.235]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.063,-0.034
-179,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.261,4697,"[0.255, 0.266]",0.181,317,"[0.167, 0.196]",0.221,5014,"[0.213, 0.229]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.075,-0.043
-180,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.262,1269,"[0.253, 0.27]",0.2,118,"[0.17, 0.23]",0.231,1387,"[0.215, 0.246]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.051,-0.047
-180,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.275]",0.197,118,"[0.167, 0.228]",0.231,1387,"[0.215, 0.247]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.05,-0.047
-182,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.262,1269,"[0.253, 0.27]",0.202,118,"[0.169, 0.234]",0.232,1387,"[0.215, 0.248]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.049,-0.048
-183,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.275]",0.212,118,"[0.181, 0.243]",0.238,1387,"[0.223, 0.255]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.043,-0.054
-184,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.275,1269,"[0.265, 0.285]",0.209,118,"[0.17, 0.246]",0.242,1387,"[0.222, 0.261]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.039,-0.058
-184,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.275,1269,"[0.265, 0.285]",0.21,118,"[0.174, 0.244]",0.242,1387,"[0.223, 0.261]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.039,-0.058
-186,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.293,1269,"[0.282, 0.304]",0.194,118,"[0.161, 0.226]",0.244,1387,"[0.226, 0.26]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.038,-0.06
-187,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.282,1269,"[0.272, 0.292]",0.209,118,"[0.167, 0.251]",0.246,1387,"[0.225, 0.267]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.036,-0.062
-188,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.293,1269,"[0.282, 0.304]",0.204,118,"[0.174, 0.234]",0.249,1387,"[0.232, 0.265]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.032,-0.065
-189,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,11346,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,713,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,12059,"[0.25, 0.25]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.057,-0.074
-190,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.426,1269,"[0.412, 0.439]",0.122,118,"[0.087, 0.161]",0.274,1387,"[0.255, 0.295]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,48%,0.007,-0.09
-191,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.282,1269,"[0.272, 0.292]",0.299,118,"[0.253, 0.343]",0.29,1387,"[0.267, 0.313]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,-0.009,-0.106
-192,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.427,11346,"[0.419, 0.435]",0.164,713,"[0.139, 0.189]",0.296,12059,"[0.283, 0.309]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,0.011,-0.12
-193,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.426,1269,"[0.412, 0.439]",0.238,118,"[0.189, 0.287]",0.332,1387,"[0.307, 0.357]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.051,-0.148
-194,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.331,11346,"[0.326, 0.337]",0.334,713,"[0.312, 0.355]",0.333,12059,"[0.322, 0.344]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.026,-0.157
-195,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.573,11346,"[0.565, 0.581]",0.836,713,"[0.811, 0.861]",0.704,12059,"[0.691, 0.717]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,16%,-0.398,-0.529
+1,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Superforecaster median forecast,0.152,477,"[0.142, 0.162]",0.032,54,"[0.012, 0.05]",0.092,531,"[0.081, 0.102]",—,—,Yes,<0.001,93.647,100.0,70%,0.185,0.097
+2,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.152,676,"[0.144, 0.161]",0.064,29,"[0.029, 0.099]",0.108,705,"[0.09, 0.127]",Likely,0.06,Likely,0.02,5.503,89.545,67%,0.194,0.06
+3,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.158,676,"[0.149, 0.168]",0.06,29,"[0.046, 0.074]",0.109,705,"[0.1, 0.117]",Yes,<0.01,Yes,<0.01,0.2,99.8,67%,0.194,0.059
+4,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.157,676,"[0.148, 0.166]",0.065,29,"[0.049, 0.086]",0.111,705,"[0.101, 0.123]",Yes,<0.01,Likely,0.01,0.0,93.347,67%,0.191,0.057
+5,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.048,129,"[0.038, 0.059]",0.112,1980,"[0.106, 0.117]",Yes,<0.001,Yes,<0.01,0.0,99.35,67%,0.208,0.059
+6,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.055,129,"[0.042, 0.067]",0.114,1980,"[0.108, 0.121]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.01,0.0,90.545,66%,0.205,0.056
+6,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.164,934,"[0.158, 0.171]",0.064,59,"[0.048, 0.083]",0.114,993,"[0.106, 0.124]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.02,0.0,85.093,66%,0.184,0.066
+8,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.176,6463,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.054,409,"[0.044, 0.064]",0.115,6872,"[0.11, 0.12]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.01,0.0,92.396,66%,0.194,0.061
+9,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.174,4620,"[0.171, 0.177]",0.061,308,"[0.051, 0.071]",0.118,4928,"[0.112, 0.123]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.03,0.0,59.03,66%,0.195,0.058
+10,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.183,6463,"[0.18, 0.186]",0.057,409,"[0.046, 0.068]",0.12,6872,"[0.115, 0.126]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.07,0.0,18.909,65%,0.188,0.055
+10,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.175,4130,"[0.168, 0.181]",0.066,221,"[0.052, 0.082]",0.12,4351,"[0.113, 0.129]",Yes,<0.001,Likely,0.10,0.0,21.111,65%,0.187,0.055
+12,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.179]",0.072,59,"[0.054, 0.094]",0.122,993,"[0.112, 0.134]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.20,0.0,15.308,65%,0.176,0.057
+13,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.195,1835,"[0.191, 0.2]",0.052,120,"[0.04, 0.064]",0.124,1955,"[0.117, 0.13]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.20,0.0,2.601,65%,0.188,0.055
+13,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.17,3196,"[0.165, 0.175]",0.078,162,"[0.059, 0.098]",0.124,3358,"[0.115, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.25,0.0,7.604,65%,0.186,0.05
+13,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.194,6463,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.054,409,"[0.044, 0.064]",0.124,6872,"[0.119, 0.129]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.21,0.0,0.1,65%,0.184,0.051
+13,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.174,676,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.075,29,"[0.052, 0.107]",0.124,705,"[0.112, 0.141]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.30,0.0,11.156,65%,0.178,0.044
+17,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.172,677,"[0.163, 0.18]",0.079,29,"[0.05, 0.124]",0.125,706,"[0.11, 0.149]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.35,0.0,23.162,65%,0.207,0.051
+17,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.192,3698,"[0.188, 0.197]",0.057,243,"[0.046, 0.068]",0.125,3941,"[0.119, 0.131]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.24,0.0,0.05,65%,0.185,0.052
+19,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.168,676,"[0.159, 0.177]",0.083,29,"[0.056, 0.114]",0.126,705,"[0.112, 0.142]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.35,0.0,9.705,65%,0.177,0.043
+20,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.165,676,"[0.157, 0.173]",0.09,29,"[0.052, 0.152]",0.127,705,"[0.107, 0.159]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.42,0.0,30.815,64%,0.175,0.041
+21,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.18,4806,"[0.176, 0.185]",0.077,250,"[0.06, 0.095]",0.128,5056,"[0.12, 0.138]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.48,0.0,0.0,64%,0.178,0.046
+21,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,6463,"[0.19, 0.196]",0.062,409,"[0.05, 0.075]",0.128,6872,"[0.122, 0.134]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.43,0.0,0.0,64%,0.18,0.048
+21,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.17,676,"[0.159, 0.182]",0.086,29,"[0.052, 0.132]",0.128,705,"[0.11, 0.152]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.45,0.0,13.707,64%,0.175,0.04
+21,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.185,4780,"[0.182, 0.188]",0.071,260,"[0.059, 0.084]",0.128,5040,"[0.122, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.45,0.0,0.05,64%,0.18,0.045
+21,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.192,10670,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.064,683,"[0.054, 0.075]",0.128,11353,"[0.122, 0.133]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.42,0.0,0.0,64%,0.177,0.048
+26,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Public median forecast,0.185,477,"[0.172, 0.198]",0.073,54,"[0.052, 0.095]",0.129,531,"[0.116, 0.141]",Yes,<0.001,—,—,0.0,3.402,64%,0.148,0.06
+26,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,4697,"[0.196, 0.202]",0.058,317,"[0.047, 0.07]",0.129,5014,"[0.123, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.50,0.0,0.0,64%,0.167,0.049
+26,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot),0.166,934,"[0.157, 0.176]",0.092,59,"[0.059, 0.133]",0.129,993,"[0.112, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.50,0.0,9.105,64%,0.169,0.051
+26,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.193,11346,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.064,715,"[0.053, 0.076]",0.129,12061,"[0.123, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.49,0.0,0.0,64%,0.178,0.047
+30,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.201]",0.061,308,"[0.05, 0.072]",0.13,4928,"[0.124, 0.135]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.56,0.0,0.0,64%,0.183,0.046
+30,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash-Preview-04-17 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.166,934,"[0.157, 0.176]",0.094,59,"[0.066, 0.128]",0.13,993,"[0.116, 0.148]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.58,0.0,3.202,64%,0.168,0.05
+32,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,1843,"[0.195, 0.204]",0.062,101,"[0.048, 0.078]",0.131,1944,"[0.124, 0.139]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.61,0.0,0.0,64%,0.165,0.044
+33,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,2029,"[0.192, 0.206]",0.068,90,"[0.051, 0.087]",0.133,2119,"[0.124, 0.144]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.74,0.0,0.0,63%,0.189,0.037
+34,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.197,676,"[0.185, 0.21]",0.07,29,"[0.052, 0.091]",0.134,705,"[0.122, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.72,0.0,0.1,63%,0.169,0.035
+35,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (zero shot),0.175,1851,"[0.171, 0.179]",0.095,129,"[0.071, 0.12]",0.135,1980,"[0.123, 0.147]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.78,0.0,0.25,63%,0.185,0.035
+35,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.201,6463,"[0.198, 0.204]",0.068,409,"[0.057, 0.08]",0.135,6872,"[0.129, 0.14]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.82,0.0,0.0,63%,0.174,0.041
+35,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.164,934,"[0.158, 0.171]",0.105,59,"[0.068, 0.149]",0.135,993,"[0.116, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.69,0.0,2.601,63%,0.164,0.045
+35,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,934,"[0.166, 0.179]",0.098,59,"[0.067, 0.137]",0.135,993,"[0.12, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.74,0.0,0.4,63%,0.163,0.045
+39,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (scratchpad),0.176,6463,"[0.173, 0.179]",0.097,409,"[0.084, 0.11]",0.136,6872,"[0.13, 0.143]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.88,0.0,0.0,63%,0.172,0.039
+39,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.197,4697,"[0.194, 0.201]",0.074,317,"[0.059, 0.09]",0.136,5014,"[0.128, 0.144]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.90,0.0,0.0,63%,0.16,0.042
+39,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.207,2769,"[0.201, 0.214]",0.065,179,"[0.051, 0.08]",0.136,2948,"[0.129, 0.144]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.85,0.0,0.0,63%,0.171,0.043
+39,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.214,6197,"[0.211, 0.218]",0.058,378,"[0.047, 0.069]",0.136,6575,"[0.13, 0.142]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.88,0.0,0.0,63%,0.17,0.041
+43,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.077,64,"[0.061, 0.094]",0.137,993,"[0.128, 0.146]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.88,0.0,0.0,63%,0.178,0.032
+44,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.173,3196,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.102,162,"[0.078, 0.128]",0.138,3358,"[0.126, 0.151]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.85,0.0,0.0,63%,0.172,0.036
+44,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.214,6197,"[0.21, 0.217]",0.063,378,"[0.052, 0.075]",0.138,6575,"[0.132, 0.145]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.0,63%,0.168,0.039
+46,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.191,676,"[0.179, 0.204]",0.089,29,"[0.058, 0.129]",0.14,705,"[0.123, 0.161]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.85,0.0,0.05,63%,0.162,0.028
+46,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.214,1843,"[0.209, 0.221]",0.065,101,"[0.05, 0.081]",0.14,1944,"[0.132, 0.148]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.0,63%,0.156,0.035
+48,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.5-Preview-2025-02-27 (scratchpad),0.173,1851,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.108,129,"[0.086, 0.13]",0.141,1980,"[0.13, 0.152]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.0,62%,0.179,0.03
+48,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.188,922,"[0.182, 0.194]",0.095,65,"[0.068, 0.126]",0.141,987,"[0.127, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.92,0.0,0.05,62%,0.183,0.03
+48,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.174,676,"[0.164, 0.184]",0.108,29,"[0.054, 0.178]",0.141,705,"[0.114, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.72,0.0,3.902,63%,0.162,0.028
+51,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.21,1269,"[0.202, 0.218]",0.074,118,"[0.055, 0.095]",0.142,1387,"[0.132, 0.153]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,62%,0.139,0.042
+51,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-R1 (scratchpad),0.174,3698,"[0.171, 0.177]",0.111,243,"[0.096, 0.126]",0.142,3941,"[0.135, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.97,0.0,0.0,62%,0.167,0.034
+51,ForecastBench,xAI,Grok-beta (zero shot),0.195,1835,"[0.191, 0.2]",0.089,120,"[0.066, 0.113]",0.142,1955,"[0.13, 0.154]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.93,0.0,0.0,62%,0.17,0.036
+54,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.219,6463,"[0.215, 0.222]",0.068,409,"[0.055, 0.082]",0.143,6872,"[0.137, 0.15]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.165,0.032
+55,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.19,1269,"[0.182, 0.197]",0.098,118,"[0.075, 0.123]",0.144,1387,"[0.132, 0.156]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.137,0.04
+55,ForecastBench,Mistral,Magistral-Medium-2506 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.196,1353,"[0.188, 0.204]",0.092,58,"[0.071, 0.117]",0.144,1411,"[0.133, 0.157]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.97,0.0,0.0,62%,0.173,0.028
+57,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (scratchpad),0.194,6463,"[0.191, 0.197]",0.098,409,"[0.084, 0.113]",0.146,6872,"[0.139, 0.154]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,62%,0.162,0.029
+58,ForecastBench,Qwen,QwQ-32B-Preview (scratchpad),0.197,1849,"[0.189, 0.205]",0.098,119,"[0.076, 0.119]",0.147,1968,"[0.136, 0.159]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,62%,0.154,0.034
+58,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.218,2029,"[0.211, 0.225]",0.076,90,"[0.058, 0.096]",0.147,2119,"[0.137, 0.158]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.176,0.024
+60,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.21,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.086,120,"[0.064, 0.11]",0.148,1955,"[0.136, 0.161]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,62%,0.164,0.031
+60,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.218,684,"[0.206, 0.23]",0.078,51,"[0.055, 0.103]",0.148,735,"[0.135, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.98,0.0,0.0,62%,0.169,0.031
+62,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (zero shot with crowd forecast with web search),0.188,922,"[0.179, 0.197]",0.11,65,"[0.067, 0.161]",0.149,987,"[0.126, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.94,0.0,0.05,61%,0.175,0.023
+63,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.207,1269,"[0.198, 0.215]",0.094,118,"[0.068, 0.124]",0.15,1387,"[0.137, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.131,0.034
+63,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.209,1269,"[0.2, 0.219]",0.092,118,"[0.07, 0.114]",0.15,1387,"[0.139, 0.162]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.131,0.034
+65,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (zero shot),0.18,4806,"[0.176, 0.185]",0.122,250,"[0.097, 0.15]",0.151,5056,"[0.138, 0.165]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.155,0.023
+65,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-7-Sonnet-20250219 (zero shot),0.183,6463,"[0.18, 0.186]",0.12,409,"[0.104, 0.138]",0.151,6872,"[0.143, 0.161]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.157,0.024
+65,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Imputed Forecaster,0.25,11346,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.051,715,"[0.042, 0.06]",0.151,12061,"[0.146, 0.155]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.156,0.025
+65,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20241022 (zero shot),0.193,6463,"[0.19, 0.196]",0.108,409,"[0.092, 0.126]",0.151,6872,"[0.143, 0.16]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.158,0.025
+69,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (zero shot),0.17,3196,"[0.165, 0.175]",0.134,162,"[0.102, 0.167]",0.152,3358,"[0.136, 0.169]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,61%,0.158,0.022
+69,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4.1-2025-04-14 (scratchpad),0.175,4130,"[0.168, 0.181]",0.129,221,"[0.104, 0.158]",0.152,4351,"[0.139, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.155,0.023
+69,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (zero shot),0.165,676,"[0.157, 0.173]",0.139,29,"[0.052, 0.215]",0.152,705,"[0.107, 0.191]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.85,0.15,6.153,61%,0.15,0.016
+72,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.225,1269,"[0.215, 0.235]",0.081,118,"[0.057, 0.107]",0.153,1387,"[0.14, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.128,0.031
+73,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (scratchpad),0.174,676,"[0.164, 0.184]",0.135,29,"[0.078, 0.202]",0.154,705,"[0.126, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.95,0.0,0.0,61%,0.148,0.014
+74,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Sonnet-4-20250514 (zero shot),0.174,676,"[0.165, 0.183]",0.136,29,"[0.066, 0.206]",0.155,705,"[0.12, 0.19]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.92,0.0,1.801,61%,0.147,0.013
+74,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.212,1269,"[0.202, 0.222]",0.099,118,"[0.075, 0.122]",0.155,1387,"[0.143, 0.168]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.126,0.029
+76,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (zero shot),0.192,3698,"[0.188, 0.197]",0.12,243,"[0.101, 0.139]",0.156,3941,"[0.146, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.153,0.02
+76,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.226,2854,"[0.221, 0.232]",0.086,216,"[0.068, 0.106]",0.156,3070,"[0.146, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,61%,0.14,0.024
+78,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.23,4369,"[0.226, 0.235]",0.085,249,"[0.071, 0.1]",0.157,4618,"[0.15, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.145,0.02
+78,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.201,4697,"[0.198, 0.205]",0.114,317,"[0.099, 0.129]",0.157,5014,"[0.15, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.139,0.02
+80,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.199,1269,"[0.192, 0.207]",0.116,118,"[0.09, 0.143]",0.158,1387,"[0.145, 0.171]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.124,0.026
+80,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O4-Mini-2025-04-16 (scratchpad),0.173,3196,"[0.169, 0.178]",0.143,162,"[0.111, 0.177]",0.158,3358,"[0.142, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.152,0.016
+80,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (scratchpad with crowd forecast with web search),0.192,922,"[0.183, 0.203]",0.124,65,"[0.09, 0.164]",0.158,987,"[0.14, 0.179]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.166,0.014
+83,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.224,2170,"[0.216, 0.232]",0.095,165,"[0.072, 0.121]",0.159,2335,"[0.147, 0.173]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.13,0.021
+83,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (zero shot),0.198,4620,"[0.195, 0.201]",0.119,308,"[0.104, 0.135]",0.159,4928,"[0.151, 0.167]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.154,0.017
+83,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (zero shot),0.193,11346,"[0.191, 0.196]",0.125,715,"[0.112, 0.14]",0.159,12061,"[0.152, 0.166]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.147,0.016
+83,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with news),0.19,1269,"[0.182, 0.197]",0.129,118,"[0.098, 0.161]",0.159,1387,"[0.144, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.122,0.025
+83,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad),0.192,10670,"[0.189, 0.194]",0.126,683,"[0.114, 0.138]",0.159,11353,"[0.153, 0.165]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.146,0.017
+83,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.098,118,"[0.078, 0.12]",0.159,1387,"[0.148, 0.171]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.122,0.025
+89,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-1-20250805 (zero shot),0.158,676,"[0.149, 0.168]",0.163,29,"[0.112, 0.222]",0.16,705,"[0.134, 0.19]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,60%,0.142,0.008
+89,ForecastBench,Meta,Meta-Llama-3.1-405B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.199,1843,"[0.195, 0.204]",0.121,101,"[0.091, 0.153]",0.16,1944,"[0.145, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.136,0.015
+91,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.212,1269,"[0.203, 0.221]",0.11,118,"[0.084, 0.138]",0.161,1387,"[0.147, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.12,0.023
+91,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (zero shot with web search),0.188,922,"[0.179, 0.197]",0.135,65,"[0.086, 0.184]",0.161,987,"[0.136, 0.186]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,60%,0.163,0.01
+91,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-11-20 (scratchpad with web search),0.192,922,"[0.183, 0.203]",0.129,65,"[0.097, 0.165]",0.161,987,"[0.144, 0.179]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.163,0.011
+94,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.238,1269,"[0.23, 0.246]",0.087,118,"[0.064, 0.111]",0.163,1387,"[0.151, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.119,0.022
+94,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.214,1269,"[0.206, 0.222]",0.113,118,"[0.09, 0.136]",0.163,1387,"[0.151, 0.176]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.118,0.021
+94,ForecastBench,DeepSeek,DeepSeek-V3 (scratchpad),0.188,922,"[0.182, 0.194]",0.138,65,"[0.103, 0.174]",0.163,987,"[0.145, 0.181]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,60%,0.161,0.009
+94,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Pro (zero shot),0.152,676,"[0.144, 0.161]",0.174,29,"[0.06, 0.278]",0.163,705,"[0.106, 0.215]",Yes,<0.01,No,0.88,0.5,5.503,60%,0.139,0.005
+98,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad),0.199,1269,"[0.192, 0.207]",0.129,118,"[0.095, 0.163]",0.164,1387,"[0.147, 0.181]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.117,0.02
+99,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.219,6463,"[0.215, 0.222]",0.111,409,"[0.096, 0.128]",0.165,6872,"[0.157, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.143,0.01
+99,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (zero shot),0.199,4697,"[0.196, 0.202]",0.13,317,"[0.113, 0.149]",0.165,5014,"[0.156, 0.174]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.132,0.013
+101,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.234,1269,"[0.226, 0.244]",0.098,118,"[0.072, 0.126]",0.166,1387,"[0.152, 0.181]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.115,0.018
+102,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.157,676,"[0.148, 0.166]",0.177,29,"[0.099, 0.262]",0.167,705,"[0.127, 0.21]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.97,0.0,0.05,59%,0.136,0.002
+102,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen3-235B-A22B-Fp8-Tput (scratchpad),0.185,4780,"[0.182, 0.188]",0.149,260,"[0.131, 0.168]",0.167,5040,"[0.158, 0.177]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.141,0.006
+104,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct-Turbo (scratchpad),0.201,6463,"[0.198, 0.204]",0.135,409,"[0.121, 0.149]",0.168,6872,"[0.161, 0.175]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.141,0.008
+105,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.198, 0.215]",0.131,118,"[0.101, 0.161]",0.169,1387,"[0.153, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+105,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.223]",0.123,118,"[0.096, 0.149]",0.169,1387,"[0.155, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+105,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.239,1269,"[0.229, 0.25]",0.099,118,"[0.068, 0.134]",0.169,1387,"[0.153, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+105,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.205,1269,"[0.196, 0.213]",0.134,118,"[0.103, 0.164]",0.169,1387,"[0.154, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+105,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.229]",0.118,118,"[0.093, 0.144]",0.169,1387,"[0.156, 0.183]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+105,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.233,1269,"[0.224, 0.243]",0.105,118,"[0.078, 0.134]",0.169,1387,"[0.155, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+105,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad with news),0.212,1269,"[0.202, 0.222]",0.126,118,"[0.097, 0.157]",0.169,1387,"[0.154, 0.185]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.112,0.015
+105,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Mini-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.168,676,"[0.159, 0.177]",0.169,29,"[0.105, 0.243]",0.169,705,"[0.137, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,0.99,0.0,0.0,59%,0.134,-0.001
+113,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (scratchpad),0.21,1835,"[0.203, 0.218]",0.13,120,"[0.108, 0.153]",0.17,1955,"[0.158, 0.182]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.142,0.008
+113,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (zero shot),0.214,6197,"[0.211, 0.218]",0.125,378,"[0.108, 0.142]",0.17,6575,"[0.161, 0.178]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.137,0.007
+115,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-4-Scout-17B-16E-Instruct (zero shot),0.23,4369,"[0.226, 0.235]",0.112,249,"[0.096, 0.131]",0.171,4618,"[0.163, 0.181]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.132,0.007
+115,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.241,1269,"[0.228, 0.254]",0.101,118,"[0.071, 0.133]",0.171,1387,"[0.155, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.11,0.013
+117,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (scratchpad),0.209,1269,"[0.2, 0.219]",0.135,118,"[0.106, 0.163]",0.172,1387,"[0.157, 0.187]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.109,0.012
+117,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.115,118,"[0.096, 0.135]",0.172,1387,"[0.162, 0.184]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.109,0.012
+117,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (scratchpad with news),0.212,1269,"[0.203, 0.221]",0.131,118,"[0.101, 0.164]",0.172,1387,"[0.156, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,59%,0.11,0.013
+120,ForecastBench,OpenAI,O3-Mini-2025-01-31 (scratchpad),0.197,929,"[0.191, 0.203]",0.149,64,"[0.119, 0.181]",0.173,993,"[0.157, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.142,-0.004
+121,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct-Turbo (zero shot),0.214,1843,"[0.209, 0.221]",0.136,101,"[0.106, 0.171]",0.175,1944,"[0.16, 0.193]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.121,-0.001
+121,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.142,118,"[0.116, 0.17]",0.175,1387,"[0.162, 0.189]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.106,0.009
+123,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (zero shot),0.197,4697,"[0.194, 0.201]",0.155,317,"[0.134, 0.178]",0.176,5014,"[0.165, 0.188]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.12,0.001
+123,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Naive Forecaster,0.299,11346,"[0.295, 0.304]",0.052,715,"[0.043, 0.061]",0.176,12061,"[0.17, 0.181]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.131,0.0
+123,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (scratchpad with news),0.205,1269,"[0.196, 0.213]",0.146,118,"[0.113, 0.181]",0.176,1387,"[0.158, 0.194]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.106,0.009
+123,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-Opus-4-20250514 (scratchpad),0.172,677,"[0.163, 0.18]",0.18,29,"[0.116, 0.256]",0.176,706,"[0.143, 0.215]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.157,0.0
+123,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.21,1269,"[0.202, 0.219]",0.143,118,"[0.116, 0.169]",0.176,1387,"[0.162, 0.19]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.105,0.008
+128,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (scratchpad),0.214,1269,"[0.206, 0.222]",0.14,118,"[0.114, 0.166]",0.177,1387,"[0.163, 0.19]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
+128,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.224,2170,"[0.216, 0.232]",0.13,165,"[0.096, 0.164]",0.177,2335,"[0.159, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.113,0.003
+128,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (zero shot),0.225,1269,"[0.215, 0.235]",0.128,118,"[0.093, 0.163]",0.177,1387,"[0.158, 0.195]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
+128,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.199,676,"[0.184, 0.215]",0.155,29,"[0.1, 0.217]",0.177,705,"[0.149, 0.21]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.125,-0.009
+128,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (scratchpad with SECOND news),0.228,1269,"[0.221, 0.236]",0.126,118,"[0.096, 0.157]",0.177,1387,"[0.162, 0.193]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.104,0.007
+128,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2407 (zero shot),0.214,6197,"[0.21, 0.217]",0.14,378,"[0.123, 0.158]",0.177,6575,"[0.168, 0.186]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.129,0.0
+134,ForecastBench,Moonshot,Kimi-K2-Instruct (zero shot),0.199,2029,"[0.192, 0.206]",0.157,90,"[0.114, 0.205]",0.178,2119,"[0.156, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.145,-0.007
+135,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad),0.207,1269,"[0.2, 0.215]",0.15,118,"[0.124, 0.177]",0.179,1387,"[0.165, 0.192]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,58%,0.103,0.005
+136,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.232,1269,"[0.223, 0.242]",0.131,118,"[0.103, 0.159]",0.181,1387,"[0.167, 0.197]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.1,0.003
+137,ForecastBench,Z.ai,GLM-4.5-Air-FP8 (zero shot),0.197,676,"[0.185, 0.21]",0.166,29,"[0.102, 0.236]",0.182,705,"[0.149, 0.218]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.121,-0.014
+138,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.254]",0.125,118,"[0.098, 0.152]",0.183,1387,"[0.169, 0.198]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.098,0.001
+139,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad),0.201,4697,"[0.198, 0.205]",0.166,317,"[0.15, 0.184]",0.184,5014,"[0.176, 0.193]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.112,-0.006
+139,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o (superforecaster with news 1),0.238,1269,"[0.226, 0.249]",0.13,118,"[0.096, 0.166]",0.184,1387,"[0.167, 0.203]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.098,0.0
+141,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad),0.215,1269,"[0.206, 0.223]",0.156,118,"[0.122, 0.186]",0.185,1387,"[0.168, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001
+142,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.259]",0.122,120,"[0.083, 0.161]",0.186,1955,"[0.166, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.126,-0.007
+142,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (scratchpad with news),0.21,1269,"[0.202, 0.219]",0.163,118,"[0.132, 0.192]",0.186,1387,"[0.17, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.095,-0.002
+142,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-0613 (zero shot),0.21,1269,"[0.202, 0.218]",0.161,118,"[0.133, 0.19]",0.186,1387,"[0.171, 0.201]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.096,-0.001
+145,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) geometric mean with news",0.254,1269,"[0.246, 0.261]",0.119,118,"[0.095, 0.144]",0.187,1387,"[0.173, 0.2]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.095,-0.002
+145,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad with news),0.232,1269,"[0.223, 0.242]",0.142,118,"[0.113, 0.171]",0.187,1387,"[0.171, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.094,-0.003
+147,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) median with news",0.254,1269,"[0.246, 0.261]",0.123,118,"[0.098, 0.149]",0.188,1387,"[0.175, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
+147,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-5-Sonnet-20240620 (superforecaster with news 2),0.226,1269,"[0.216, 0.237]",0.149,118,"[0.114, 0.183]",0.188,1387,"[0.17, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.094,-0.004
+147,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.0-Flash-Lite-001 (zero shot),0.25,1835,"[0.241, 0.259]",0.126,120,"[0.095, 0.16]",0.188,1955,"[0.172, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.124,-0.01
+147,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.219,1269,"[0.209, 0.228]",0.157,118,"[0.129, 0.186]",0.188,1387,"[0.173, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
+147,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,"LLM Crowd (gpt-4o, claude-3.5-sonnet, gemini-1.5-pro) geometric mean log odds with news",0.255,1269,"[0.247, 0.262]",0.122,118,"[0.097, 0.148]",0.188,1387,"[0.175, 0.201]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
+147,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.265]",0.12,118,"[0.095, 0.146]",0.188,1387,"[0.175, 0.202]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.093,-0.004
+153,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (scratchpad),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.229]",0.158,118,"[0.13, 0.185]",0.189,1387,"[0.175, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.092,-0.005
+153,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 3),0.219,1269,"[0.21, 0.228]",0.16,118,"[0.128, 0.195]",0.189,1387,"[0.173, 0.208]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.092,-0.005
+155,ForecastBench,Qwen,Qwen1.5-110B-Chat (zero shot),0.22,1269,"[0.212, 0.228]",0.16,118,"[0.13, 0.192]",0.19,1387,"[0.175, 0.206]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.091,-0.006
+156,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.226,2854,"[0.221, 0.232]",0.157,216,"[0.133, 0.179]",0.191,3070,"[0.179, 0.204]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.105,-0.012
+157,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x7B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.241,1269,"[0.228, 0.254]",0.142,118,"[0.102, 0.182]",0.192,1387,"[0.171, 0.214]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.09,-0.007
+157,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (superforecaster with news 2),0.215,1269,"[0.207, 0.223]",0.169,118,"[0.133, 0.207]",0.192,1387,"[0.173, 0.211]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.089,-0.008
+159,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.246,1269,"[0.234, 0.258]",0.141,118,"[0.11, 0.174]",0.193,1387,"[0.178, 0.211]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.088,-0.009
+159,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (zero shot),0.233,1269,"[0.224, 0.243]",0.152,118,"[0.116, 0.191]",0.193,1387,"[0.174, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.089,-0.009
+159,ForecastBench,Mistral,Mistral-Large-2411 (zero shot),0.218,2029,"[0.211, 0.225]",0.167,90,"[0.136, 0.204]",0.193,2119,"[0.177, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,57%,0.13,-0.022
+162,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.229,1269,"[0.219, 0.239]",0.162,118,"[0.131, 0.192]",0.195,1387,"[0.18, 0.211]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.086,-0.011
+163,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Opus-20240229 (scratchpad with news),0.219,1269,"[0.209, 0.228]",0.174,118,"[0.143, 0.206]",0.196,1387,"[0.18, 0.212]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.085,-0.012
+164,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4-Turbo-2024-04-09 (superforecaster with news 1),0.228,1269,"[0.218, 0.238]",0.166,118,"[0.135, 0.201]",0.197,1387,"[0.18, 0.215]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013
+164,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-2.5-Flash (zero shot),0.17,676,"[0.159, 0.182]",0.225,29,"[0.134, 0.325]",0.197,705,"[0.152, 0.248]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.105,-0.029
+164,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-4o-2024-05-13 (scratchpad),0.218,684,"[0.206, 0.23]",0.175,51,"[0.136, 0.216]",0.197,735,"[0.176, 0.218]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.12,-0.018
+167,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.261,4697,"[0.256, 0.266]",0.135,317,"[0.123, 0.148]",0.198,5014,"[0.191, 0.205]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.098,-0.02
+167,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (zero shot),0.234,1269,"[0.226, 0.244]",0.161,118,"[0.123, 0.197]",0.198,1387,"[0.179, 0.217]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.084,-0.013
+169,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-5-Nano-2025-08-07 (zero shot),0.199,676,"[0.184, 0.215]",0.198,29,"[0.134, 0.275]",0.199,705,"[0.166, 0.237]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.103,-0.031
+170,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad),0.242,1269,"[0.23, 0.254]",0.162,118,"[0.131, 0.197]",0.202,1387,"[0.186, 0.22]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.079,-0.018
+170,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mistral-Large-Latest (scratchpad with news),0.229,1269,"[0.219, 0.239]",0.176,118,"[0.141, 0.211]",0.202,1387,"[0.184, 0.221]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,56%,0.079,-0.018
+172,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.23,1269,"[0.221, 0.239]",0.181,118,"[0.153, 0.209]",0.206,1387,"[0.191, 0.22]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.076,-0.022
+172,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-2.1 (zero shot),0.238,1269,"[0.23, 0.246]",0.174,118,"[0.14, 0.207]",0.206,1387,"[0.189, 0.223]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,55%,0.075,-0.022
+174,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (scratchpad with news),0.246,1269,"[0.234, 0.258]",0.172,118,"[0.136, 0.21]",0.209,1387,"[0.19, 0.229]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.072,-0.025
+175,ForecastBench,Mistral AI,Mixtral-8x22B-Instruct-V0.1 (superforecaster with news 2),0.252,1269,"[0.241, 0.263]",0.167,118,"[0.139, 0.195]",0.21,1387,"[0.194, 0.225]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.072,-0.025
+176,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Pro (superforecaster with news 2),0.25,1269,"[0.237, 0.262]",0.176,118,"[0.134, 0.217]",0.213,1387,"[0.19, 0.235]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.068,-0.029
+177,ForecastBench,Google,Gemini-1.5-Flash (zero shot),0.239,1269,"[0.229, 0.25]",0.19,118,"[0.151, 0.231]",0.215,1387,"[0.194, 0.236]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,54%,0.067,-0.03
+178,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-3-8b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.256,1269,"[0.247, 0.265]",0.179,118,"[0.149, 0.209]",0.218,1387,"[0.202, 0.234]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.063,-0.034
+179,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (zero shot),0.261,4697,"[0.256, 0.266]",0.181,317,"[0.167, 0.195]",0.221,5014,"[0.213, 0.228]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,53%,0.075,-0.043
+180,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.262,1269,"[0.254, 0.27]",0.2,118,"[0.17, 0.229]",0.231,1387,"[0.215, 0.246]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.051,-0.047
+180,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.275]",0.197,118,"[0.166, 0.227]",0.231,1387,"[0.215, 0.247]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.05,-0.047
+182,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (scratchpad),0.262,1269,"[0.254, 0.27]",0.202,118,"[0.169, 0.236]",0.232,1387,"[0.214, 0.249]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,52%,0.049,-0.048
+183,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad),0.265,1269,"[0.255, 0.275]",0.212,118,"[0.179, 0.243]",0.238,1387,"[0.221, 0.255]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.043,-0.054
+184,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad),0.275,1269,"[0.264, 0.285]",0.209,118,"[0.173, 0.247]",0.242,1387,"[0.223, 0.262]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.039,-0.058
+184,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (scratchpad with crowd forecast),0.275,1269,"[0.264, 0.285]",0.21,118,"[0.176, 0.245]",0.242,1387,"[0.225, 0.26]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.039,-0.058
+186,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news with crowd forecast),0.293,1269,"[0.282, 0.305]",0.194,118,"[0.164, 0.226]",0.244,1387,"[0.228, 0.26]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,51%,0.038,-0.06
+187,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.282,1269,"[0.272, 0.292]",0.209,118,"[0.17, 0.251]",0.246,1387,"[0.226, 0.267]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.036,-0.062
+188,ForecastBench,Anthropic,Claude-3-Haiku-20240307 (scratchpad with news),0.293,1269,"[0.282, 0.305]",0.204,118,"[0.174, 0.234]",0.249,1387,"[0.233, 0.265]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.032,-0.065
+189,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0.5,0.25,11346,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,715,"[0.25, 0.25]",0.25,12061,"[0.25, 0.25]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,50%,0.057,-0.074
+190,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot with crowd forecast),0.426,1269,"[0.412, 0.439]",0.122,118,"[0.088, 0.158]",0.274,1387,"[0.256, 0.294]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,48%,0.007,-0.09
+191,ForecastBench,Meta,Llama-2-70b-Chat-Hf (zero shot),0.282,1269,"[0.272, 0.292]",0.299,118,"[0.254, 0.343]",0.29,1387,"[0.267, 0.313]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,-0.009,-0.106
+192,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 0,0.427,11346,"[0.419, 0.435]",0.164,715,"[0.138, 0.19]",0.295,12061,"[0.282, 0.309]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,46%,0.011,-0.12
+193,ForecastBench,OpenAI,GPT-3.5-Turbo-0125 (zero shot),0.426,1269,"[0.412, 0.439]",0.238,118,"[0.19, 0.288]",0.332,1387,"[0.307, 0.358]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.051,-0.148
+194,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Random Uniform,0.331,11346,"[0.326, 0.337]",0.334,715,"[0.313, 0.355]",0.333,12061,"[0.322, 0.344]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,42%,-0.026,-0.157
+195,ForecastBench,ForecastBench,Always 1,0.573,11346,"[0.565, 0.581]",0.836,715,"[0.81, 0.862]",0.705,12061,"[0.691, 0.718]",Yes,<0.001,No,1.00,0.0,0.0,16%,-0.398,-0.529